Thu
Aug 18 2022
06:43 am

From Knox County, as of 8/13/2022,
and from State of Tennessee as of 8/13/2022,

since the inception of COVID-19, approx. 1/23/2020...

The Knox County Health Department reports 107,728 coronavirus cases and 34,429 probable cases.
3,384 cases in 28 days, averaging 120 cases a day. An 18% increase in cases per day as compared to the report dated 7/16/2022 (102 cases/day), which was a 47% increase over cases per day reported for 6/18/2022 (69 cases/day).

There have been 1,461 deaths due to coronavirus in Knox County.
That is up from 1,429 total deaths as of 7/16/2022.
32 deaths in 28 days. More than a death a day and over double the number of deaths (13) reported for the last period.

Deaths by age group (age breakdown as of 08/13/2022, Knox County count of 1,461 deaths ):

1 in the 0-17 age group (0%) (0% (+0) no increase since 7/16/22)
64 in the 18-44 age group (4%) (1.6%% (+1) increase since 7/16/22)
304 in the 45-64 age group (21%) (2.4% (+7) increase since 7/16/22)
342 in the 65-74 age group (24%) (1% (+3) decrease since 7/16/22)
750 in the 75+ age group (51%) (2.9% (+21) increase since 7/16/22)

As of 08/13/2022, there are
124 COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized in the Knox County region. A 14% increase over the hospitalizations on 7/16/2022 (109 hospitalized). Over six times the hospitalizations on 5/14/2022 (19 hospitalized).
A total of 2,786 people have been hospitalized in Knox County with Covid-19 since the State of Tennessee started reporting.

As of 8/13/2022 there are
22 COVID-19 patients in ICU. The same number reported on 7/16/2022. More than double the number of ICU patients from 6/18/2022 (9). More than five times the number of ICU patients from 5/14/2022 (4).

Hospitalizations are no longer below the low of 21 on 7/4/21.

As of July 16, 2022, ICU bed available capacity is at 14.2% of 324 total ICU beds. Up from 13.6% on July 16, 2022. However, the number of available ICU beds increased from 317 to 324. If the number of available beds had stayed the same the available capacity would have dropped to 12.3%.

As of August 13, 2022, the TN Dept of Health reports the average positivity rate over the past 7 days is 35.4% ,up from the previous rate of 34.7% reported on 7/16/2022. This is over double the rate reported on 5/14/2022 (14.8%), which was double from the 6.9% reported on 4/16/2022.

Vaccinations reported, last updated 8/17/2022:

% with 2 doses - 58.7% (up from 58.6% on 7/23/2022, up from 58.4% on 6/25/2022, up from 57.65% on 5/22/2022)

% with at least 1 dose - 63.8% (up from 63.5% on 7/23/2022, up from 63.2% on 6/25/2022, up from 63.04% on 5/22/2022)

% with a booster shot - 28.3% (up from 28.0% on 7/23/2022, up from 27.6% on 6/25/2022, up from 25.84% on 5/22/2022, up from 25.66% on 4/21/2022)

fischbobber's picture

Next two weeks.

Since it takes a couple weeks to determine whether an action increased, decreased, or had no effect on a covid surge, we don't know yet what opening the schools with no mitigation will do.

I'm hoping that the slight downturn is the beginning of a trend, but we should prepare to shelter in place in the event recent actions raise the rate of covid.

Right now, it's hard to predict what this surge of covid will do in the immediate future.

fischbobber's picture

Early look.

There was a noticeable jump in 5-17 year old active cases, a slight rise in deaths, and an end of the week jump in hospitalizations, all three indicating our present situation is leaning toward a worst case scenario. Emergency rooms are already getting backed up to dangerous levels and Mayor Jacobs is asking that, as Dr. Beeper would put it," routine emergencies "find some other means of care as opposed to going to the emergency room.His weekly address is here. (link...)

My response, in Compass, is here:

"Apparently, early indications of the severity of this wave of Covid aren't looking too good. Waits are up at local emergency rooms. There is a shortage of workers. As you may or may not remember, this is what Dr. Shamiyeh considered to be the biggest long term threat of covid. As I recall, it was late 2020 when Dr. Shamiyeh first brought up the topic and has repeatedly sounded the alarm over this issue. The Mayor addressed the looming catastrophe on his weekly internet address.
The culprit, according to Mayor Jacobs, is a factoring equation called the Medicare Wage Index, which is a formula used to determine reimbursement rates to hospitals for their labor costs.
(link...)
You receive reimbursement based on what you are paying staff. Tennessee, a right to work state, does not have as strong a union presence as areas demanding higher wages. Hence, our wage scale is considerably lower than most communities we are competing against for these workers.Last report I read about the actual number of nurses we are short, it stood around 800 about two months ago. Based on the way the Mayor has added urgency to this issue, I'd say somebody with the Mayor's ear thinks that number is going to get worse. Honestly, the Mayor's attitude about this seems to be, "Why should I advocate for a raise for our nurses so we would receive more money from the Index, when the hospital administration will just have to turn around and pay the nurses with it?"
Since the only government entity that has addressed this issue with any level of expertise, The Knox County Board of Health, who, as you know if you were paying attention, established themselves on a worldwide level for innovative and effective response to covid, amidst some daunting circumstances, has been dissolved, and the Mayor refuses to attend the Advisory Board of Health meetings. As our local healthcare system continues to deteriorate, the local healthcare system exposes itself to collapse from smaller and smaller disease outbreaks
This is not a nationwide phenomena, it is the direct result of an incompetent covid response and a substandard vaccination rate. Knoxville is not the only community with tribal politics and cultish behavior, and the problems he claims are unrelated to his terrorist threats against the medical community, are problems to a greatly worsening degree to lower paid staff in regions promoting covid infection, like Knox County.
It appears 75% is a magic number when it comes to vaccination rate and moving a community past covid. Once 75% is achieved everything becomes manageable, at least for now. Doesn't mean the world is a perfect place, it just means they can have some sort of business as usual. The problem in Knox County staring us in the face is that Mayor Jacobs has poisoned the well of united public health efforts. There's no way to get to 75% by the Christmas variant, and there's no way of telling if that will be a severe enough strain to shut down the hospitals. Our county is playing with fire right now."

It would appear things are set up to get worse before they get better.

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