Wed
Oct 8 2008
02:06 pm
Battleground state polls and electoral map check 10/8
By: R. Neal

The latest sampling of battleground state polls:

• Colorado (9): Obama 51%, McCain 45% (source)
• Florida (27): Obama 52%, McCain 45% (source)
• Michigan (17): Obama 51%, McCain 41% (source)
• Missouri (11): Obama 50%, McCain 47% (source)
• New Mexico (5): Obama 45%, McCain 40% (source)
• North Carolina (15): Obama 49%, McCain 49% (source)
• Ohio (20): Obama 50%, McCain 47% (source)
• Pennsylvania (21): Obama 54%%, McCain 41% (source)
• Virginia (13): Obama 50%, McCain 48% (source)
• Wisconsin (10): Obama 54%, McCain 44% (source)

Michigan is now safe for Obama. Missouri flipped for Obama. The latest New Mexico poll still shows Obama in the lead, but it's softer. North Carolina is split according to CNN (another poll has McCain ahead and yet another has Obama ahead). Obama inches ahead in Ohio. Pennsylvania also now looks safe for Obama. Virginia is holding for Obama, and two other polls show him with +10 and +12 leads. Obama is extending his lead in Wisconsin.

One thing that has concerned me over the past few days is the number of undecideds. How can anyone possibly be undecided at this point? My guess is that they are mostly Republicans who are unhappy with McCain. This could be a problem for Obama as we get closer to election day, but polls seem to be solidifying in this latest round and third-party candidates appear to be having little effect. These polls also do not include any effect of last night's debate, which might have moved some people off the fence.

The latest electoral map check:

• Intrade Predictive: Obama 338, McCain 200
• CNN: Obama 264, McCain 177
• MSNBC: Obama 264, McCain 174
• RCP: Obama 264, McCain 163
• FiveThirtyEight: Obama 345.4, McCain 192.6
• 270toWin: Obama 264, McCain 163
• Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174

Big Obama jump on Intrade. Obama gains, McCain loses on CNN's map. Obama gains big on MSNBC, RCP and 270 maps while McCain holds. Obama also gains big on 538's map as McCain loses ground. 538 also predicts an 89.2% chance for an Obama victory. This is all very encouraging for Obama, who has already won on three maps and is within 6 EVs on the others. Will it all come down to Missouri?

(Previous)

Topics:
tennesseevaluesauthority's picture

One thing that has concerned

Submitted by tennesseevalues... on Wed, 2008/10/08 - 3:15pm.

One thing that has concerned me over the past few days is the number of undecideds. How can anyone possibly be undecided at this point? My guess is that they are mostly Republicans who are unhappy with McCain.

I don't doubt that those folks make up a significant portion of the undecided voters. Also, don't underestimate the number of "undecided voters" who are Democrats and afraid (or unwilling) to vote for Obama based on his race.

An interesting bit from an NPR story on Obama recruiting voters in southwest Virginia included this little exchange:

But another Clinton-supporting Democrat he knows is having trouble with her party's nominee.

"I never really thought about whether or not that I was racist, or however you want to put it," said Tina Graham. She fears Obama would focus on African-Americans at the expense of poor white people like herself. "It's just the fact that I think that he will represent them, and what they want, and what they need. ... They're his people, they're his race."

There is still a long way to go...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

TN Progressive

TN Politics

Knox TN Today

Local TV News

News Sentinel

    State News

      Wire Reports

      Lost Medicaid Funding

      To date, the failure to expand Medicaid/TennCare has cost the State of Tennessee ? in lost federal funding. (Source)

      Search and Archives