Wed
Oct 1 2008
07:53 am
Battleground state polls and electoral map check 10/1
By: R. Neal

The latest sampling of battleground state polls:

• Colorado (9): Obama 49%, McCain 48% (source)
• Florida (27): Obama 49%, McCain 46% (source)
• Michigan (17): Obama 51%, McCain 38% (source)
• Missouri (11): McCain 48%, Obama 46% (source)
• New Mexico (5): Obama 53%, McCain 42% (source)
• North Carolina (15): Obama 47%, McCain 45% (source)
• Ohio (20): McCain 49%, Obama 48% (source)
• Pennsylvania (21): Obama 54%%, McCain 39% (source)
• Virginia (13): Obama 51%, McCain 45% (source)
• Wisconsin (10): Obama 49%, McCain 43% (source)

Virginia and Florida both flipped for Obama in the latest polls. Obama is expanding his lead in Pennsylvania, and surging ahead in Michigan although the poll is suspect. McCain is gaining in Colorado. Ohio is still a virtual tie, but McCain had a slight uptick. North Carolina appears to be back in play so it is added.

The latest electoral map check:

• Intrade Predictive: Obama 269, McCain 200
• CNN: Obama 240, McCain 200
• MSNBC: Obama 212, McCain 174
• RCP: Obama 249, McCain 163
• FiveThirtyEight: Obama 330.6, McCain 207.4
• 270toWin: Obama 202, McCain 163
• Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 286, McCain 190

The Intrade, MSNBC, and 270 maps are softer, with both candidates losing ground. Obama moved ahead on the CNN map with McCain holding. Obama surged ahead on the RCP map while McCain lost ground. The 538 map was added.

(Previous)

Topics:
bill young's picture

Obama-260 McCain-227 Toss-Ups-51

Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/10/01 - 11:35am.

I get a kick out this.Been doing it as hobby since a '72 polly sy class. Even tho I know i'm full of it...say one thing on one thread..something different on another...but here goes.

Oct 1st its anybodys race to win.Obama's surging right now but is there a Bradley effect going on?

McCain states:

ala,alaska,ari,ark,fla*,ga,id,ind*,kan,ky,la,mo*,mont
,neb,nc*,nd,ok,sc,sd,tn,tex,ut,west va,wy.(*could go democratic)

Obama states:

cal,conn,del,dc,haw,ill,ia,me,mary,mass,
mich*,minn*,nj,nm*,ny,ore,pa*,ri,ver,wash,wis*(*could go republican)

toss up states:

colo,nv,nh,oh,va

In '00 Nader's % in some close states:
colo-5.25%,minn-5.2%,nh-3.9%,nm-3.55%,
wis.-3.62%.

Will nader + green party + libertarian party + paul voters voting for one of these = anything close to those %? Will it make a difference in close states?

sugarfatpie's picture

Bradley effect?

Submitted by sugarfatpie on Fri, 2008/10/03 - 12:36pm.

Obama's surging right now but is there a Bradley effect going on?

Probably not. None in the primaries (actually just the opposite), and non in the Ford senate race or Patrick gov race (MA).
(link...)

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

KONobody's picture

Thank you

Submitted by KONobody (not verified) on Wed, 2008/10/01 - 3:29pm.

Thanx for the update.

Good points, bill.

Will nader + green party + libertarian party + paul voters.

Nader and McKinney may pull a few Dem votes but I doubt they will be significant. The amount of new voters is staggering and many of them are in solely because of Obama. Most probably never even heard of Nader or McKinney either one.

Libertarians, IMNSHO, will cast votes for Obama strictly on Republican fiscal maleficence.
Paul voters will pull a small but significant number of votes off of McLame. They are upset with the GOP for the way Paul was treated and probably rightfully so.

It's almost over. ;)

KC's picture

I see NC, VA, and FL going

Submitted by KC on Wed, 2008/10/01 - 10:18pm.

I see NC, VA, and FL going for Obama. I have a cousin in SC, and he said Dole is having trouble in NC. That should be a cinch for her.

The Republicans waited a little too late to pass the rescue plan. Events are starting to unfold that will hurt ALL Republicans running in November.

The damage to the economy can't be undone, and Republicans should have thought about this before the vote last week. They didn't, and the consequences will hurt retirees, college students, their parents, and small businesses.

As House Republicans are wont to do, they went for the short-term political victory which won them praise on talk radio, but will cost them dearly, in my opinion, at the polls.

bill young's picture

mich

Submitted by bill young on Fri, 2008/10/03 - 11:40am.

we got mich mccain leaving the state.

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