By John Mark Hancock
Copyrighted – All Rights Reserved

As 2007 gets into full swing, without much snow yet in the Great Smoky Mountains, the University of Tennessee men’s basketball team is finding tough sledding on the road after some major successes in December. It appears that Head Coach Bruce Pearl’s young team, while they overachieved in the early part of this still-young season, has been humbled and brought back to earth with three straight losses on the road, all of which were bitter and hard fought at the end.

The fiery Pearl, who nearly got tossed out of the game on the Plains when he was assessed a technical foul down the stretch while protesting an egregious call by a referee, lost three games in a row for the first time in his entire 15-year coaching career last night at Auburn. The Volunteers blew a 14-point lead late in the game, which when combined with the very poor officiating and the fact that star Chris Lofton never got to the free throw line while the Tigers shot multiple free tosses throughout the game, led to a 3-point loss.

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A week ago UT lost to Vanderbilt by a single point in Nashville on a last-second tip-in at the buzzer which should have never happened, as the Big Orange failed to commit a foul they had to give to prevent the shot from ever being made. Sandwiched between those two league losses was another game the Vols should have won in Columbus against Ohio State, when a late bucket that was wrongly counted as a 3-pointer allowed the Buckeyes to get a 2-point comeback win.

Even with all of those heartbreaking defeats, Tennessee finds itself still perched in the Top 25 nationally in both the polls and the RPI, the ratings percentage index that is relied upon very heavily by the NCAA Selection Committee in both giving bids and seeding teams in the tournament. This is due, of course, to UT’s big wins in December over Memphis, Oklahoma State, and Texas, all in Tennessee.

Here’s a rundown on where all the teams on the Vols’ schedule are now in the RPI among the 336 teams that are rated nationally, what UT did with each, and what they have on their upcoming schedule this month and next:

Current College RPI (As of Thursday, January 18, 2007)

4. North Carolina – Loss in New York
5. Kentucky – Jan. 28 (Away) & Feb. 13 (Home)
8. Oklahoma State – Win in Nashville
9. Memphis – Win at home
13. Ohio State – Loss on the road
17. Butler – Loss in New York
19. Alabama – Feb. 21 (Away)
24. TENNESSEE
28. Arkansas – Feb. 24 (Away)
32. Florida – Feb. 3 (Away) & Feb. 27 (Home)
45. LSU – Feb. 6 (Home)
51. Georgia – Jan. 31 (Home) & Mar. 3 (Away)
58. Texas – Win at home
68. Mississippi State – Win at home
72. Western Kentucky – Win at home
75. South Carolina – Jan. 20 (Home) & Feb. 17 (Away)
90. Vanderbilt – Loss on the road & Feb. 10 (Home)
97. Ole Miss – Jan. 24 (Away)
103. Auburn – Loss on the road
110. Fordham – Win in Nashville
139. Middle Tennessee State – Win at home
179. East Tennessee State – Win at home
189. Tennessee Tech – Win at home
234. Murray State – Win at home
242. UNC-Wilmington – Win in Nashville
270. Coppin State – Win at home
299. Louisiana-Lafayette – Win on the road

When you analyze the list above, you can easily see that there are no easy games left. All of Tennessee’s remaining opponents are in the Top 100 of the RPI. Nine of their 13 remaining games are against teams in the Top 50, the measure that most observers use to rate the true worth of a basketball team on a national scale, if you believe as I do that Georgia will wind up in the Top 50 at year’s end.

That makes UT’s next two games absolute must wins. The Vols simply must beat the South Carolina Gamecocks at home in Knoxville on Saturday night and the Ole Miss Rebels on the road in Oxford on Wednesday night. Those two teams are ranked #75 and #97 respectively in the RPI two of the three lowest ranked teams left on the schedule. If the Big Orange loses either of those games, they are in big trouble the rest of the way. If they can regain their footing and win both of them, they will remain in good shape in terms of their ability to get into the NCAA tournament, or at least be able to preserve that possibility.

Following those two games, UT must go to Lexington to face the Kentucky Wildcats a week from Sunday, then get the Georgia Bulldogs at home in Knoxville before they have to go to Gainesville to face the defending national champion Florida Gators, who will be out for blood since Tennessee beat them twice to win the SEC Eastern Division Championship last season. Only after that road trip does the schedule turn in the Vols’ favor, with five of their final 8 games at home, where they have been drawing near-capacity crowds at Thompson-Boling Arena and are in the Top 5 nationally in attendance.

All Volunteer fans realize that this team has already overachieved. The fabulous freshmen that Pearl recruited have done much better than expected. Tennessee is still a big man away from being a top team to be reckoned with. This group is growing and developing character with these losses that will hopefully pay dividends at tournament time. They simply must overcome scoring droughts on the road to develop into a consistent winner.

The fact that all three of these most recent losses have been so close bodes well for the rest of the season. The 2 SEC games that were dropped were against teams that UT should be able to redeem itself against when Vanderbilt comes to Knoxville on February 10 and if the Vols get to have a rematch against the Tigers in the SEC Tournament in Atlanta. The Ohio State loss, while bitter, was on the road against a Top 20 team in the RPI, as were Tennessee’s only other losses this year, to #4 North Carolina and #17 Butler, both away from home, albeit on a neutral court in the NIT Season Tipoff Tournament.

The real tests for this year’s team will be whether they can sweep both South Carolina and Georgia. Doing that will put them solidly in at least third place in the SEC East, and will also give them a good seed in the conference tournament. If they can win a couple of league tourney games, they have a good chance at a good seed in the NCAA tournament as well. That’s about all this team was ever expected to do this season, and probably a lot more. If the Big Orange can remain ranked by the end of the year, this will have been an excellent foundation on which Pearl can build for his third season at the helm on The Hill.

Remember, it could be a lot worse. Coastal Carolina is now # 260 in the RPI.