I was born in the Garden State and moved to Virginia when I was 12. In other words, I've never voted in New Jersey and I've never used the state as a basis for my own political loyalties. Nevertheless, I believe New Jersey serves as an interesting bridge state between the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, which more than ever appears to be an undifferentiated mass of Democratic Party support. That said, New Jersey was also uniquely affected by 9/11 and has had a close-up perspective on Rudy Giuliani, Mike Bloomberg and Hillary Clinton. So it isn't a surprise that Giuliani polls well in NJ, both in the GOP primary and in the general election.

But this latest poll spells trouble for the GOP.

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Giuliani's lead over Hillary has dropped to three points in NJ. But no other candidate comes close to beating any of the Democratic contenders.

What does this mean for national politics? Maybe not much since, in the end, New Jersey is an expensive teaser state in which Republicans always poll better than they perform on Election Day (remember Tom Kean, Jr. vs. Bob Menendez?, or Bush dreaming of picking it up in 2004?). Republicans will not win New Jersey in 2008. But the fact that only Giuliani gives the Dems a run for their money in the Garden State should give pause to the Fred Thompson supporters. Yes, Rudy is uniqely popular in NJ. But he is also very popular among non-GOP partisans elsewhere in the country, and I believe only he can win over non-Republicans in crucial swing states. Fred Thompson, on the other hand, will be read as another George W. Bush: a bubba talking phony completely out of touch with the non-South.

This is, of course, the conundrum the GOP has been in all cycle. They can nominate the one electable candidate who happens to hold positions anathema to the social conservative base of the party. Or they can run to some media-produced Southerner in hopes of soothing the base but losing the general. Read outside the Tennessee media and you will see just how unpopular Fred Thompson is as a Presidential candidate.