A poll of 600 likely voters commissioned by the Madeline Rogero campaign showed the candidate has a 2 to 1 lead over her nearest compeitor, Ivan Harmon. Whether there's a runoff might depend on which way the 22% undecided eventually lean. Press release after the break...

From the Rogero campaign:

KNOXVILLE, July 25 – Heading into a televised debate this week, Madeline Rogero holds a "significant" lead in the upcoming mayoral primary, according to a poll taken last week for the campaign by Public Policy Polling (PPP) of Raleigh, NC.

Rogero leads her closest rival by a 2-to-1 margin. Rogero receives 40% of the vote in the poll, Ivan Harmon trails with 20%. Mark Padgett is third with 13%, and two other candidates split 5%. 22% of the respondents were undecided.

Rogero holds a 5-to-1 lead among Democrats, and leads among independents by a 3-to-1 margin.

Rogero is viewed favorably by a 60%-19% margin, significantly outpacing both Harmon and Padgett.

"While we still have much to do, I am certainly pleased with these results," Rogero said. "The people I talk to every day around the city know that we have a great opportunity to vote to continue our work to create new jobs, grow our local economy and preserve Knoxville’s environment while we do it."

The poll was taken among 600 likely voters July 18-20, and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Public Policy Polling is one of the most reputable pollsters in the U.S., rated by the Wall Street Journal as one of the two most accurate during the last election cycle.

The non-partisan primary will be held September 27th. Early voting starts September 7th. The Chamber of Commerce debate will be held at 8:00pm this Thursday, July 28, and will be televised on WBIR, channel 10.

Note to Editors/Reporters: The polling memo from PPP is attached. If you would like detailed information on background, please contact Walter Ludwig at 202-251-0670. Tom Jensen, president of PPP can be contacted directly at 888-621-6988.

Full text of the poll memo from PPP:

From: Dustin Ingalls, Public Policy Polling

To: Interested Parties

Subject: Madeline Rogero in strong position to win Knoxville Mayor

Date: 7-22-11

Eight years ago, Madeline Rogero narrowly lost her first bid for Mayor, but this fall, she holds a significant lead.

In PPP’s poll of likely voters in this fall’s election, Rogero dominates a five-candidate field, and has a 2:1 lead over her next competitor. 40% of voters say they would vote for Rogero if the election were tomorrow, with only 20% siding with Ivan Harmon, 13% with Mark Padgett, 4% with Joe Hultquist, and 1% with Bo Bennett. 22% are still undecided.

Rogero has such a clear advantage because with the 37% plurality of voters who label themselves Democrats, Rogero has an almost 5:1 lead (62-13-9) over Padgett and Harmon. Among independents, 27% of the electorate, Rogero has a 3:1 lead, topping Harmon and Padgett, 43-14-13. She even gets significant support with the 36% who claim to be Republicans, coming in second at 15% to Harmon’s 35% and Padgett’s 14%.

A former county commissioner and director of community development under Mayor Haslem, Rogero is the best-known of the candidates. Only 21% either have not heard of Rogero or cannot express an opinion about her. 33% say that of Harmon, 35% of Padgett, 56% of Hultquist, and 88% of Bennett.

Most importantly, Rogero is also the best-liked. 60% have a favorable impression of her, and only 19% an unfavorable one. That more than 3:1 favorability spread is better than Harmon’s 2:1 (45-22) and Padgett’s almost 2:1 (42-23), and obviously leagues ahead of Hultquist’s 25-19 and Bennett’s 5-7.

PPP surveyed 600 likely voters in the Knoxville mayoral election from July 18th to 20th, with a margin of error of +/-4.0%.