Thu
Jan 24 2008
04:40 pm
Revised Knox Co. turnout predictions?
By: R. Neal

The SKB Institute of Applied Back of the Envelope Mathematics has crunched the early voting numbers so far and is prepared to make the following predictions for Feb. 5th Knox Co. turnout:

Early voting turnout: 21,376
Total turnout: 47,503

Previous predictions (from last Nov.):

Greg Mackay: 70,000
Don Daugherty: 50,000
Bill Young: 95,000
R. Neal: 95,000 (without Fred)

Will turnout will be less than previously expected? Will Don Daugherty's November prediction be closest to the pin? What's your over/under on the 47,503? Who does lower turnout favor? If there's a last minute surge and record turnout on Feb. 5th, who does that favor?

Topics:
Joe Taylor's picture

Voter Turn out

Submitted by Joe Taylor on Thu, 2008/01/24 - 4:48pm.

Hey I predicted 36,000+/- awhile back

bizgrrl's picture

bizgrrl says: Early voting

Submitted by bizgrrl on Thu, 2008/01/24 - 5:19pm.

bizgrrl says:

Early voting turnout: 25,053
Total turnout: 69,591

jbr's picture

Typically I would say a

Submitted by jbr on Thu, 2008/01/24 - 5:33pm.

Typically I would say a large number of voters would favor the ones with name recognition. So Lee Harvey Oswald would be elected to county commission if he was running against Joe Kupchak. But I hope the burst in interest is due to media reports over last year of the stuff that has gone on and voters motivation is because they are more informed and focused on thoughtful voting. So that is with which I will go.

bill young's picture

dems+/gop=

Submitted by bill young on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 12:19pm.

i up dems 3,000 to 33,000 (a record)
gop same 65,000

68,000 total

folks start making up minds & fear bad weather feb 5th

big ev saturday..over the top ev tues,wed,thurs

election day will be like a funeral
no matter who you are..
how many come to your funeral
still greatly depends on the weather

if bad weather hits..turn out could be the ev + 0 or near 0

bad weather predicted will kill +65 yrs voter turn out that waits till traditional election day

Greg Mackay's picture

over/under on the 47,503

Submitted by Greg Mackay on Thu, 2008/01/24 - 9:06pm.

Over

R. Neal's picture

Over Ah, you're going with

Submitted by R. Neal on Thu, 2008/01/24 - 9:11pm.

Over

Ah, you're going with Mrs. Bizgrrl. Smart guy.

knoxvegas99's picture

Barring a blizzard on Feb.

Submitted by knoxvegas99 on Thu, 2008/01/24 - 9:25pm.

Barring a blizzard on Feb. 5, I'm with Greg and Mrs. Bizgrrl - over.

Larry Van Guilder

Tamara Shepherd's picture

Won't be fooled again

Submitted by Tamara Shepherd on Thu, 2008/01/24 - 10:28pm.

This election, I won't cast a vote until I've seen those campaign finance disclosures due the afternoon of January 29.

Greg, look for me loitering in the hallway at 8:00 am on the 30th. I'll have a full 48 hours more to cast my early vote.

Cletus's picture

Greg, look for me loitering

Submitted by Cletus on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 10:21am.

Greg, look for me loitering in the hallway at 8:00 am on the 30th. I'll have a full 48 hours more to cast my early vote.

I'm sure he'll be waiting with anticipation. :-)

knoxrebel's picture

C'mon guys stick to your numbers

Submitted by knoxrebel on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 12:23pm.

Don Daugherty

Hey guys, didn't we bet a bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue on this? I'm pretty sure we did. Or was it one of those $60 Ruth's Chris steaks? C'mon Greg, Bill & bizgirl - you all be a little more specific: I said 50,000 months ago - Greg said 70K, Bill Young said 95K, Randy said 95K (without Fred) - so, this over/under business simply doesn't cut it. Nor do the "Johnnie come lately" re-dos of predictions. Stick to your guns guys. You all sound like you are taking lessons from Hillary Clinton's defense of her Iraqi War vote. :)

bill young's picture

WHAT???

Submitted by bill young on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 12:38pm.

Wait a minute Reb.Those predictions were made in Nov
I saw the turn-outs in NH & Ia

Uped the Democratic vote 3,000 to 33,000
breaking the '72 record of a little over 32,000

I'll make this prediction I won't change
Tyree..next sheriff

knoxrebel's picture

Don Daugherty Bill Bill Bill

Submitted by knoxrebel on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 12:59pm.

Don Daugherty

Bill Bill Bill . . . you can't just ask for a new deck of cards in the middle of a hand. I'm afraid the Dem Primary vote is not going to break 30,000. A little surprising. But the fact is, we just do not have the countywide primary races that the GOP has (Trustee, Clerk, Property Assessor, Law Director). Several of those are quite bitter. Nevertheless, I still believe we will have a record Democratic turnout in Knox in both August and November. That's bad news for the GOP.

bill young's picture

New '08 deck

Submitted by bill young on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 1:23pm.

Its the Democratic deck & its stacked

Going to send the four flushing Republicans out

Going put Tyree in

bill young's picture

By the Way

Submitted by bill young on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 1:21pm.

Reb

what up with the Hillary slam??

if she wins how u gonna answer GOP on her war position?

knoxrebel's picture

Don Daugherty Bill - Hey, I

Submitted by knoxrebel on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 1:35pm.

Don Daugherty

Bill - Hey, I like Hillary. But she was wrong on Iraq. Just as my man Edwards was wrong. There's nothing horrible about being wrong. But you have to fess up and admit it. I would hope that she can do that. Otherwise, IF she is nominated, she'll get hit hard on that issue. They can't hit Edwards hard on it, because he has said flatly, I was wrong. Period. So, he has made it a non-issue. They can't hit Obama on it because he was against it from the start. So, Hillary just needs to say "I was wrong" and be done with it. But I can answer anybody who throws down on me on behalf of any of our candidates versus theirs.

bill young's picture

cool

Submitted by bill young on Fri, 2008/01/25 - 1:47pm.

It's time to start throwing down on JJ.

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