Remember Y2K? Southern Beale is having a flashback, and reminisces on the "freak out mode" that dominated the "Decade of Fear" because of all the terrible events that occurred.

It reminded me of something I wrote about Y2K at the time...

continued...

Y2K Hysteria

It appears that the media has found its Next Big Story™ to flog during the coming months. Bigger than OJ, more shocking than Monicagate... it’s the Y2K CRISIS!

Coming soon to a media outlet near you, it has everything – fear, uncertainty, doubt, panic, evil corporate villains and their unsuspecting victims, big government snafus, pontificating politicians, valiant computer geeks saving the world, and lawyers salivating over trillions of dollars in potential litigation. Best of all, it has pitifully few of those pesky facts that so annoy reporters. And editors can milk it for at least ten more months of sensational front-page filler.

According to a Feb. 24, 1999 Orlando Sentinel headline, "We have reasons to fear." We sure do - more opinion and conjecture by unqualified reporters, self-serving politicians, companies promoting their Y2K software remediation services, and opportunistic shysters selling Y2K survival products. It appears to me that the biggest potential Y2K problem is media-induced mass hysteria resulting in a run on banks, hoarding and shortages of food, water, guns, and ammunition, and urban gridlock as panicked citizens flee our cities in droves.

The article states on the front page that "some level of economic disruption is inevitable," and quotes a U.S. Senator as saying "this problem will affect us all individually and collectively in profound ways."

Yet turning to page six, we find that "Social Security checks should not face disruption," "air-traffic control should be able to avoid disruption," a "prolonged nationwide blackout" is not likely, "95 percent of telephone systems are expected to be ready," and "planes will not fall out of the sky."

The story adds little to the publicly available information on Y2K. Based on a leaked copy of a Senate report and covered by such paragons of journalism as the Drudge Report, this story is representative of the sensational journalism and self-fulfilling prophecies surrounding Y2K.

The most informative aspect of the article is that it emphasizes just how little we really know about the problem. To date, there has been little or no specific technical information on just how any particular critical system is supposed to fail. There is a lot of opinion and conjecture by the aforementioned reporters, politicians, and shysters. They are all anxious to warn us of what might happen or what could happen. But what, exactly, will happen? What systems or embedded components containing what program instructions will fail in what specific way causing what specific catastrophic results? No one seems willing or able to answer these questions. Therefore, the best advice is to not worry about something you can't do anything about.

Banks are ready for Y2K, so your money is safe. If you’re worried, keep your statements for the rest of the year, make copies of your bill payments during December and January of next year. If you’re worried that your ATM might not work, accumulate a few Traveler’s Checks over the next few months, then cash them in next January. But don’t close your accounts or make a run on the bank for cash. This is simply an overreaction that could lead to bigger social and economic problems than Y2K.

(A shorter version appeared as a Letter to the Editor in the Orlando Sentinel.)

And the follow-up...

Thank a Programmer

To those who think the Y2K "bug" was a hoax:

If your power is on…
your telephone is working…
your paper was delivered this morning…
you had running water to make coffee…
your PC is working…
your ISP is up and running…
you are on the internet reading this…
Thank a programmer!

If your employer still has business records…
can purchase materials/supplies from vendors…
can have them shipped via land/sea/air…
can produce, sell, and deliver goods/services…
can bill and collect receivables…
can process their payroll…
can print/deposit your paycheck…
Thank a programmer!

If you can purchase fuel for your car…
you can pay for it at the pump…
your neighborhood traffic lights are working …
you can safely navigate your way to the grocery…
your grocery has food on the shelves…
you can have it scanned at the checkout…
your debit/credit card works to pay for it…
you get a correct bank statement next month…
Thank a programmer!

For better or worse, our society is highly dependent on technology. Some of this technology was created decades ago when a megabyte of computer memory cost millions of dollars and a "record" consisted of eighty columns of holes punched in a paper card. Some so-called shortcuts were necessary for these systems to be technically and economically feasible. Most of these systems were not expected to still be in service in the year 2000.

As primitive as they may seem today, the fact that these systems are still operating in the year 2000, are stable and reliable, and can still be understood and maintained by competent professionals, is a tribute to the engineers and programmers who designed, built, and maintained them.

Because businesses and governments acknowledged the potential problem, made the necessary investments, and successfully managed the resolution, today we are all safe and comfortable in our homes and offices.

Because we are fortunate to have talented professionals who could step up to the plate, address the problem, and unravel millions (billions?) of lines of code whose authors are retired or no longer with us, we still have technology to keep our giant socioeconomic engine humming along.

And, we still have all the technology we need to sit around second-guessing and playing out "what if" scenarios in online forums.

Those who believe that the Y2K problem was all just a big hoax will probably never be convinced otherwise. Unless, perhaps, we hand them a COBOL manual and a bank interest accrual program or a utility billing program and give them six months to learn a new language, understand the program and the system it operates in, and fix it.

Or, maybe we can give them the schematics, engineering data, and CPU assembler/machine instruction listings for a computer controlled 747 cockpit data management and flight control system and ask them to determine if it is Y2K compliant and to fix it if it isn't. And, oh by the way, your wife and daughter will be flying in this aircraft, right over your house, January 3, 2000 on their return trip from Grandma's.

Some skeptics believe that the apparent absence of problems in Asia and under-developed or "third-world" countries, which allegedly did not take the Y2K problem as seriously, is evidence that there really never was a problem. A possible explanation, however, is that many of their systems are not as automated and are therefore not as dependent on technology. Another possible explanation is that that the technology they have is newer and therefore less susceptible to the types of problems inherent in systems designed and built in the 1970's and 1980's.

We should also keep in mind that approximately one-half of the world's population does not have electricity, much less home computers, Internet accounts, or Y2K worries. Hundreds of millions of people also have no telephones, running water, or public sanitation. Although some believe we have become too dependent on technology, we should be thankful for what we have.

We should also be grateful to the thousands of dedicated professionals who worked diligently to avoid what could have been at worst a serious threat to our safety and security, or at best a major disruption to our daily routines. There are sure to be numerous glitches, bugs, and annoyances over the next few weeks and months, but overall it appears we can safely say "hats off" and congratulations for a job well done to all those involved in eliminating the Y2K bug.

So, thank a programmer – today!