Fri
Nov 16 2007
12:26 am
By: Sandra Clark
Looks like Bill Brock's boy couldn't pull off the win needed to solidify the GOP control of the state senate...
This from the Chattanooga Times Free Press:
With 99 percent of precincts reporting in Hamilton County and 100 percent of precincts in Marion County, Democrat Andy Berke was ahead of Republican Oscar Brock in the special election for the state Senate District 10 race.
Hamilton County
Andy Berke: 7,875, 63.5 percent
Oscar Brock: 4,509, 36.4 percent
Marion County
Andy Berke: 1,915, 60.7 percent
Oscar Brock: 1,238, 39.3 percent
For complete coverage, see tomorrow's Chattanooga Times Free Press.
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Bill Hobbs fails his first
Bill Hobbs fails his first test.
Hasn't this been a
Hasn't this been a Democrat-held district for a long time? The last Republican to hold this district is?
Despite Crutchfield's misdeeds, voters in that district apparently didn't want to change parties.
Hasn't this been a
You mean like East Tennessee being staunchly GOP ever since the Civil War?
Kind of like one year ago when, despite Bob Corker's misdeeds, voters in our state apparently didn't want to change parties.
Yawn. As Archie Campbell put it: Life gets tedious, don't it?
Brocks - Gores
The Brock clan claims Chattanooga as home much like Gore claims Carthage as home. Oscar is usually somewhere else besides Chattanooga and the residents of that district opted for someone a bit more comfortable the the existing way of life there on the mountain. The Berkes are long time personal injury legal eagles in Chattanooga like the predecessor except they actually show up and work everyday.
Oscar's race was a longshot but he went into a district which was not exactly favorable territory and he may actually have other political ambitions in and around Chattanooga that this race will serve as an educational opportunity.
Oscar is a friend...
Oscar is a friend of mine, and you sir... (no wait, that's a different topic).
We've lost touch the last few years, but at the time we were close, he was in Chattanooga all the time. He once worked for the Chamber, and he launched several businesses, two of which I assisted with. He and his family lived and were very active in the community at the time.
I tend not to agree with GOP politics, and I'm not defending him on those grounds. I'm just relaying my own personal experience that Oscar himself was in and active in the Chattanooga community for the number of years that we knew each other (about 7 years or so in the 90s).
Crushed
I'm struck by how lopsided the margin was. I could see Berks holding on to a longtime Democratic seat. But coming off a major scandal, in a district that borders famously-GOP East Tennessee, the Democrat destroyed the son of a popular former US Senator. I'd say Tennessee is trending about the same way the rest of the Upper South is: toward the Democrats. Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina and Arkansas have all trended back to the Democrats recently. It seems that Tennessee, despite Ford's loss in 2006, is going to do the same.
Brock-Berke Turnout
District 10 was customized for Crutchfield years ago, so winning it was always a long shot. But according to the election commission, turnout in the D-10 special election was higher than expected because turnout in GOP-leaning precincts was higher than expected.
The TN GOP went after the seat hard because we believe voters deserve a choice even if they live in districts that Democrats have turned into voter plantations. And because special elections - especially ones coming after scandal leaves the seat open - are unpredictable in ways that increase the potential for a win.
Bubba, as for this being my first test, I believe early voting was already underway before I started work at the TN GOP.
We'll solidfy GOP control of the state Senate next year when Mike Faulk wins in D-4.
The TN GOP went after the
The TN GOP went after the seat hard because we believe voters deserve a choice
I'll give the GOP credit for that. Dems seem to have a habit of conceding too many races before they even start.
Not sure about your choice of words, though, re. voter "plantations".
Dems seem to have a habit of
Or targeting the wrong ones way too late (I'm looking squarely in the direction of Gov. Bredesen here).
And we'll be sure to thank Don McCleary for making that possible for you.
____________________________
"Respect mah authoritah!" - Fred Cartman Thompson
Oscar-less
I don't know Oscar Brock from Oscar Wilde, but I expected a closer race and possible upset based on family history (Bill Brock first won a Congressional seat in Chattanooga that had been Democratic for decades), scandal, and the state GOP's resources.
Remember when Chip Saltsman and crew roared into K-Town and elected Joe Burchfield in the district custom-made for Ted Ray Miller (and now held by Harry Tindell). It was a one-shot deal, Joe couldn't hold onto the seat, but it was a shocker.
I believe virtually any race is winnable if you bring the right candidate and the right resources. -- s.
You have to wonder about
You have to wonder about that, B-Ho. He's trying to spin a 64-36 defeat into some kind of great-turnout-for-a-Republican story. Guess he gets paid to ignore facts.
The truth of the matter is that the Republican performance for Senate District 10 is somewhere in the low-to-mid 40's, which means a generic Republican should draw about 43-45 percent of the vote --
Oscar Brock got 36 percent. He underperformed by as much as nine percent.
Now, let's remember that Brock was no generic Republican. He is the son of a former U.S. senator. He sits on the TNGOP executive committee, which means he has won district-wide races before (Executive committee members represent Senate districts). He spent over $200,000. He got the full support of the TNGOP big guns - Ron Ramsey, Lamar Alexander, and Bob Corker all campaigned for him. The TNGOP dropped major money on mail pieces and phone calls. B-Ho personally ran a smear campaign against Berke -- check out those press releases and blog posts.
In other words, Brock was a major Republican candidate, fully supported by his party --
And he underperformed by as much as nine percent.
Translate that as: he got whooped.
Don't think this is a sign of things to come in '08? You might want to rethink that.
Sandra is right
Things do change.
We went from Blanton to Alexander to McWherter to Sundquist to Bredesen. D,R,D,R,D.
We went from Baker to Gore to Frist. (R,D,R)
Admittedly the smaller a district gets, the easier it is to create it in a way to favor a particular party, but there is still often change.
We all have issues with one race or another...but overall, the voters get it. A bunch automatically vote D or R. The races get decided by the others...the ones who switch from party to party depending on the candidate.
Yup, one reason Tennessee
Yup, one reason Tennessee politics is fascinating.
"The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones." - John Maynard Keynes
The races get decided by the
I think that if you look at it, it probably comes down to turnout - not the vaunted "swing vote."
The largest voting bloc is the number of people who don't show. There are far many more of them than the politically unaffiliated.
____________________________
"Respect mah authoritah!" - Fred Cartman Thompson