In an earlier post I asked how this year's drought compared with previous dry spells. I emailed Mr. Brian Boyd at NOAA, who kindly provided the following information:

Top Ten Driest Years in Knoxville
Inches of Precipitation

(1) 24.68 2007 (through Oct.12)
(2) 32.48 12/31/1986
(3) 33.67 12/31/1930
(4) 34.30 12/31/1988
(5) 34.66 12/31/1987
(6) 35.16 12/31/1925
(7) 35.75 12/31/1941
(8) 35.76 12/31/1968
(9) 36.00 12/31/1952
(10) 36.40 12/31/1985

So how does 2007 project to rank on this list? Mr. Boyd pointed out that typically we could expect to receive the following precipitation amounts during the remainder of the year:

October 1.65"
November 3.98"
December 4.45"

Under this normal scenario, we'd finish the year with 34.76", making it the fifth driest year on record.

Obviously, this hasn't been a normal year. With weather models pointing to a warmer and drier than normal winter, I suspect this year will finish as one of the five driest ones on record.

We'll see.