Thu
Jan 31 2008
11:34 am

Knox Co. had 6218 early votes yesterday, bringing the total to 27,659. The breakdown is 42% Democratic and 58% Republican, a slight uptick in Democratic turnout.

Today is the last day of early voting. Locations and times here, sample ballot here. Any registered voter can vote at any early voting location.

GDrinnen2's picture

I'm on

From my earlier post:
-------
44k Rep
36k Dem

80k Total

I think Randy is right and would up my total to 90k if Fred is still viable in the Prez race. As you can see I'm saying 55% Repub assuming Fred is not viable. That 90k total would obviously push that percentage up as well (52,000 Rep / 38,000 Dem)

I think Fred will show well in South Carolina. Personally, I think it may be too little too late for him.
--------

So I was wrong about Fred showing well in South Carolina. He was marginally better than his earlier contests, but not good enough. So with Fred out, I predicted 80k (55% Republican, 45% Democrat).

With 7k-8k today, that may put me close.

We have odds on this stuff?

R. Neal's picture

I think Don Daugherty is

I think Don Daugherty is making the book...

bill young's picture

11,935

With mail ballots & early voting thats the Democratic Primary vote total.

So for my 33,000 prediction to be right

21,065 more folks got to vote in the primary.

I'm betting it's gonna happen.

GDrinnen2's picture

I guess it all comes down to

I guess it all comes down to what percentage of the vote early voting comprises. I'm banking on 40-45%. I think there are too many folks still undecided for EV percentages to reach the totals of years past.

The other school of thought is to believe we continue on the path towards more EV than election day. You could also assume that there are a lot of strong feelings this time around causing people to head to the polls at the earlist opportunity.

I believe we see huge turnouts on election day.

bill young's picture

good point

As stated in yesterdays post on ev

The every 4 years presidential voter will have a high %
voting early.I'm guessing 60% per '04 ev turn out.

However,the chronic voter is undecided in this one.

Some are undecided in the presidential primary..others in the
county primary.The question is not if these folks will vote..just when.Which gives props to gd2's huge election day turn out prediction.

The Edwards voter,in my mind,were/are chronic voters.Him dropping out may well have put those voters in the undecided camp & will wait..vote election day.

Why such a low GOP primary vote?

34,499 voted in the '06 state Republican primary.

As Ive state there is the every 4 yr presidential voter & these voters really increase turn out.

For example 15,000 voted in the '06 state democratic primary but 24,000 voted in the '04 presidential primary.

Given that this is a Republican county & 110,000 voted Bush in '04..I just believe the Republican turn out will be 55,000 or better.

R. Neal's picture

I agree on huge turnout

I agree on huge turnout Tuesday. I think so much has happend during early voting that people may be waiting.

GDrinnen2's picture

I agree. I talked with a

I agree. I talked with a couple of Edwards voters yesterday that had intended to vote early. They are completely at a loss now. The same could be said for Fred voters in TN. I guess some of those folks may not come out now, but I'm guessing most will.

B. Paone's picture

51 Campaign Finance Disclosures available free of charge!

Sorry - I forgot what my login was for this joint. Forgive the unverified name!

Anyway, Political Knoxville has posted 51 campaign finance disclosure forms for this year's primary, as well as four bonus CFDs of interest: County Mayor Mike Ragsdale, Cindy Buttry, Billy Tindell, and the Public Trust PAC.

(link...)

The remainder are in-house and just need to be scanned. They should be available Friday evening or Saturday afternoon at the latest.

I posted this elsewhere, but wanted to make sure I had spread the word sufficiently. My apologies in advance if such a practice is offensive.

bill young's picture

early voting ends with a bang

15,457 voted in the democratic primary

need 17,466 more voters election day

to break the record of 32,922 set in '72

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