Way too close.

I can't figure out how to embed the image, but my scenario has Obama with 277 to McCain's 261, with Obama getting New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire; and McCain getting Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri. I think that's the way it works out.
I wonder if there are web sites where you can enter your picks into a pool, like picking the Oscar winners. Hmmm.

I think CO is key. Like I said earlier Obama can lose VA, OH, NC and FL and still win with CO. I'm thinking that wont come in to play though. VA keeps getting a little more blue each day.

Here's a plausible Obama blowout scenario, although I'm not so sure about Missouri:

Well, in my scenario I see Obama getting Virginia, Iowa, Missouri and Colorado. I think Obama's got a huge advantage in those states.

Even though polls have given Obama the edge in Florida and Ohio I'm not holding out much hope. Given the widespread voting problems and the repubs crying over poor people voting, I think those states will wind up swinging in McCain's favor.

So my very conservative estimate is:

Obama 291
McCain 247

R.,
That's a pretty interesting series of maps. I'm more optimistic about the vote total, but I can totally see the logic and reasoning that informed your guesses.

For all our sakes, I hope it is more than a 4 electoral vote victory. Otherwise, it's going to be four years of nastiness.

Coattails will be the key word in this election. Does Obama have coattails? If some of the polling can be believed, he had a bridal train. I think that in some states, reverse coattails may be key also. Look at the Montana race, for instance. Montana is now showing in some polls as a toss-up or even slightly tilting to the Democrats. This may be a credit more to the popular Democratic governor (Schweitzer) of Montana's re-election campaign providing a boost to the Obama campaign. It's 3 extra votes, though, and I'll take them however they come.

For all the recent attention paid to North Carolina and Virginia, my gut is telling me to watch Georgia. The numbers are quite strange coming out of there for this close to the election in a state that McCain should have locked up a while ago. Almost all of the polls show the race there as "leaning McCain" but the Senate race is bouncing all over the place. Chambliss is in trouble there. (Good riddance to bad rubbish, I say.)

Victory on Election Day in December (when the Electoral College meets) will be decided in November by how far down the ticket Obama supporters go and how far up the ticket other voters go. If Obama can keep rounding up votes in Georgia and the anti-Chambliss voters will vote up the ticket to Obama, that state could be the upset special of the night. It would put 15 electoral nails in the McCain/Palin campaign's coffin and could put the Democrats that much closer to a 60 member majority.

I do believe the pre-election polling is going to-- once again-- be proven quite inaccurate. The many reasons for this have been thoroughly discussed in a variety of places, but some of the significant arguments include: under-representation from voters under 30, under-representation from African-American voters, under-representation from first time or infrequent voters (most polls counting "likely" voters look at past voting history, not current motivation to determine a "likely" voter.)

I am looking forward to watching these returns roll in and hope to God that we can win this election by a large enough margin that it can't be stolen back.

I've seen a couple reports that McCain is unofficially conceding Colorado.

Why not Virginia? I'm somewhat skeptical of polling, but several recent ones have Obama up by at least 5%. For a few weeks he's been doing better there than he's been doing in Missouri.

Up until this month I doubted that Obama could win Florida. But I understand the economy (real estate) is really getting hammered there. So I think it's currently a true tossup.

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

Link to the story I referenced earlier about McCain pulling advertising dollars out of Colorado and other states to focus on PA, OH, and FL.

I think the Rocky Mountain strategy is going to be a key one for Obama in 2008 and the Democratic party in future elections. The key for the Democratic Party's future success is in those states. New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana are proving to be foundation blocks for a long-term investment in the Rockies.

In your "no BS" prediction, you have McCain winning Iowa. But in your "McCain scenario" you give it to Obama. That doesn't square.

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

The two scenarios I have:

McCain 274
Obama 264

or

Obama 269
McCain 269

Pelosi chooses Obama

If you do believe the polls, then Obama is going to win VA, CO, IA, NM, and all the states Kerry won, putting him way over 270.

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

Thats BEAT ALABAMA as in the hated Crimson Tide who pay us a visit this Saturday as the number 2 college football team in the land.

I want to clear that up for those of you who thought last year I was posting BEAT OBAMA.

Since then I have worn two buttons on my old BIG ORANGE cap.

OBAMA '08 & BEAT BAMA.

Double takes for those not from around here..for those from around here..no matter if one was for Clinton in the primaries or now for McCain..a HELL YES on the BEAT BAMA!!!

Here Goes my less than two weeks to go prediction:

Obama-286
McCain-252

Va goes Obama but thats it in the old Confederacy.

Obama wins Pa...McCain Ohio.
Obama wins Colo..McCain Nev.

But if NC,Fla or Ohio goes Obama it's Obama big.

If Ind goes Obama it's a landslide.

No shit the polls in Ind show it's still in the mix.

And if Pa goes McCain it's McCain in a close one.

BUCK FAMA!!

Start with your first scenario, plus Iowa (Iowa's been locked up for Obama for some time). Then add Virginia. I don't know exactly how many electoral votes that is, but I know it's more than enough.

Missouri and North Carolina can go either way. I think McCain will end up prevailing in Ohio and Florida, but it won't matter - which I will enjoy immensely.

Here's my problem with Iowa:

1. Rural
2. White
3. Went for Bush in 2004

The third one is the kicker. But they do show solid Obama in the polls, and Obama got almost as many votes in the caucuses as all Republicans combined. Plus, I read somewhere that Obama has four times as many campaign workers on the ground there.

So I'm probably wrong. Hope so.

P.S. I also read somewhere that McCain and Palin are headed to Iowa. Maybe they are seeing something in their internal numbers?

Obama wins Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Nevada + Virginia

Tossups/too close to call: FL, OH, MO, NC

. . . which is exactly what the CQ race tracker says. Oh well, so much for original thinking.

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

I could be disappointed by Missouri and Florida, but I think it'll be a huge win for Obama, and won't come down to one single state making the difference.

twitchy finger clicked twice!

I got my 326/212 by giving Obama NV, CO, NM, OH, MN, and NC. I give McPalin only MO, GA, and FL (EDIT: & IN).
I could be wrong about NV, OH, and FL and Obama still wins 286/252, which is Bill's outcome.

EDIT 2: O could additionally lose either NC (SKB's pred.) or both NM+MN or both CO+NM and still get 271 or 272. Wow, this is sort of fun.