The third question John Becker put to the panel was what will be the biggest surprise? What do we not see right now that people will be shocked by?

Sen. Burchett: When the bailout money hits and we jump on it like spoiled brats and don't save it, next year we will be looking at twice the current deficit. There are more fights in Nashville when there's more money. The bailout money will only delay the inevitable.

Sen. McNally: We drew straws to see who would server on finance. Ones with short straws had to serve, and I wasn't there so they made me chairman. Two things. Whether stimulus money is used for one time projects or put into salaries. It's critical that even if we use it to close the books, we make sure that money is taken out in the next budget. The other thing is he hopes the economic problems in Tennessee won't last long. Site Selection magazine ranks Tennessee as the top industrial site, we have Volkswagen, Dow Corning, there are other projects we can bring to Tennessee. Our pension system is strong. Even though it went from $32 to $33 billion down to about $25 to $26 billion, it's still balanced and people's retirement is safe. We have good reserves in the rainy day fund of about $750 million. TennCare has a little less than $500 million in reserves. We are well prepared, and there's a good possibility that we will do the right thing with the stimulus money.

Rep. Tindell: The stimulus package will be the surprise. We have two unprecedented things going on simultaneously. The governor has been talking for months about the weakest tax collections we've had in memory, the biggest budget cuts anybody can remember, layoffs in the thousands, dramatic cuts in higher education, and just bad, bad, bad, bad. Then all of a sudden we have a different approach coming through Washington where we have an unprecedented stimulus package. People will be shocked if what's in Congress holds up and it gets to the states. It's going to be dramatic and it's going to alleviate much of the problem if it's a short term problem. If this persists and the economy gets worse for the next two or three years we are all in trouble. But it's incumbent on us to spend the money. That's the reason they are giving it to us, to try to keep the economy from slowing down, to keep people working, to get people to start buying again, and bring our tax base back. At some point you have to stop the downward spiral and start growing again. He hopes this package will do that, although there is a tremendous amount of detail that we don't know and it's premature to get too excited until we see those details and the package actually passes.

Rep. Dunn: A surprise to me is that in the upcoming governor's race the Democrats haven't put forth a candidate. Most people know that you must start two years out and they keep talking, talking, every day, every week that goes by, it's harder to come back up. When you have an incumbent governor up for reelection it's hard to find somebody to run against him, but usually when it's an open seat you have a whole field. He is watching and waiting to see how long it takes before an anointed or viable candidate is picked. They keep talking, but if you're serious you announce.

Rep. Brooks: The surprise will be that we're either going to have a very long session or a very short session. He thinks the surprise will be that it will be a short session. Brooks says that fewer bills are being considered because there is no funding.

Rep. Haynes: [The surprise] will definitely be how few bills get passed. Any bill that comes up in this session that has a fiscal note, obviously it will not go anywhere. People will also be surprised how well the Republican legislature works with Governor Bredesen, and it will be a good relationship as they cut budgets.

Sen. Overbey: I never have a crystal ball that's very clear. I hope Harry is right that if there is a stimulus package that it will really stimulate and achieve the objective. It's a funny economy we're in. This parking lot was full. This restaurant is full. It's interesting that restaurants are doing well in the times we're in. Sen. Burchett says regarding the stimulus package that any time you get federal money there are strings attached and beware of those strings. As legislators, we should beware that we don't match one-time money that we have control over with recurring expenses, which got us into problems before. You wonder once it gets spread out if it will achieve the purpose. If there is a stimulus package and we get some of the money he hopes we will find a way to let local governments make some decisions in order to meet local needs. Everybody may not need a new school building, but Sevier County and the three systems in Blount County do. Some people may need water and sewer lines. He would like to think that we can let local governments set their own priorities.

Follow up question from John Becker: Is there a "canary in the coal mine" that legislator look to when the economy turns?

Sen. McNally: We're not good at predicting the big upswings and downturns. We can predict trends, but when you come to things like what happened this fall, and it was the same in 2001 and in 1992, we miss those. Part of it is we're passing a budget in May, for the next fiscal year and we have to estimate. It's like you (the media) predicting the weather. We have what we call the "three wise men," [Dr. Bill Fox and Dr. Matt Murray at UT, and one other name I didn't get], and we give a lot of credence to them and of course the Treasury Department. But seeing the big turns, we miss them.

PREVIOUSLY:

• ETSPJ 106th General Assembly preview

• Part I: Legislative priorities

• Part II: Setting the tone