Obama is looking pretty good, and to be honest better than I would have expected at this point. Hopefully people aren't lying to the pollsters.

That Intrade Predictive map is the most encouraging. Those are people in the know betting real money.

Tennessee may be due to miss another one.

The only real question is why Obama isn't 20 points ahead across the board, with the GOP gifts that keep on giving.

And then there's always the October Surprise factor.

Those are people in the know betting real money.

How could you write that minutes after the hedge fund post? ;)

Nate Silver sees funky stuff going on at Intrade.

That's hilarious (the mystery rogue trader manipulating the market part).

Clearly the SEC's new anti-shorting rules have forced short sellers below ground into Intrade!

(A comment there. Heh.)

So I type "idiot degenerate gambler" in Gazoogle, and come up with a suspect:

The only real question is why Obama isn't 20 points ahead across the board, with the GOP gifts that
keep on giving.

He's black and from the Midwest, so he can't make inroads in certain parts of the South.

He's younger and less experience, and therefore people aren't sure if he's ready.

He's running against the one Republican who had a chance of breaking with his party in the minds of voters.

He's running against a candidate who has absolutely zero problem with consistently lying.

His name is Barack Hussein Obama.

Not to mention, Foreign Policy is still a fairly important issue in this election, and the Republican always has an advantage on that issue...even George W. Bush with zero foreign policy creds had better ratings when it came to being Commander-in-Chief than Al Gore did.

I spoke with a local Obama volunteer on the phone a couple of days ago. She said she gets several racial slurs followed by hang-ups.

But she also said that, all in all, it has been a wonderful experience. We 'preached to the choir' for probably half an hour. She was even what I would call overly optimistic about Tennessee.

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I don't have any degree of confidence that Obama will take any state where the polls do not show him at least 7-10 points ahead.

ask delay in debate and ask Obama to do the same to deal with the financial crisis.....
I am somewhat suspicious of that....I don't trust the repubs on any of this quite frankly...
I do think Obama should return to Washington to vote for any bill on this.....as should McCain..... that is worked out in Congress but I don't think he should suspend his campaign...Neither of them should suspend their campaigns and the debate should continue.....but if not Obama and Biden should have a press conference to discuss the situation. I presume the debate would be rescheduled after the vote on the bill has been taken.

where the polls do not show him at least 7-10 points ahead.

I'm not sure how much you can trust polls for this election. As pointed out, there are a lot of preconceived notions and racism, but that was before all the fun hit the fan. And I don't think it's all sunk in yet.

When retirees realize just how much money they've lost, money they will never see, I expect a lot more people will be voting exclusively for their interests, rather than for their preferences, or based upon their biases.

What may have been true based on conventional wisdom in a "normal" campaign year, may no longer apply.

Yeah, I know, no one has actually had a chance to vote yet, but this election is over and Barak Obama will be the next President of the United States of America.

The resident POTUS used the phrase "economic collapse" on national television. Sensible people are now using the phrase "another Great Depression" with a straight face. That's it. The story has been written. Gloom and doom about the economy spells disaster for the incumbent party in a presidential election. It's the one truly 100% accurate predictor of the electoral college.

Monroe weathered a financial panic in 1819 and U.S. Grant in 1873, but the economy had recovered by the next election in both cases and the incumbent party retained the office. That's as close as you'll get to electoral success in the face of economic pessimism. This one is over. To have a chance, McCain needed things to hold together another 8 weeks. It didn't happen.

So I type "idiot degenerate gambler" in Gazoogle, and come up with a suspect:

Who is that? Larry King?

Hope you're right, Ray. If McCain's alleged suspension was nothing more than a Hail Mary desperation, I don't know if I can really blame him. But it was just a selfish stunt. A gigantic reacharound on the electorate. That's not being a maverick and "that's not change we can believe in" (as Mac chanted a few months ago).

His pal Preacher Huckabee is saying it was a dumb idea.

Those of us who get a discount at Shoneys refer to it as a 'senior moment', something a president really shouldn't have on a regular basis.

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