Wed
May 5 2010
12:12 pm

Corps of Engineers report:

Old Hickory Lake has been used to hold back water from Nashville and was hit with heavy rainfall on Saturday and Sunday, causing the lake to reach a record elevation of 451.4. At 452, we would have lost control of the project.

Releases from the dam began Sunday in order to bring the lake down to a safe level and to prevent overtopping of the dam.

Scary stuff. Makes you think about all those sandbags atop TVA dams and what would have happened over here if we had gotten 14-20 inches of rain instead of three. (By way of Mike Byrd.)

UPDATE: TVA doubts system would have handled the event here.

Andy Axel's picture

"Lost control of the

"Lost control of the project?"

I mean, it's not like they're just letting a schedule slip past a due date or something.

So, if more of Nashville were to be inundated, would that have been an "involuntary wetlands conversion?"

BTW: Wife is in Bellevue as volunteer relief as we speak. Her words - "heartbreaking."

lovable liberal's picture

Added drama?

Is lost control of the project synonymous with overtopping the dam? Maybe it's a larger category.

Surely they didn't mean the dam would have failed, although the link did mention the need to draw down to a safe level. I think they meant that they would no longer have the ability to mitigate downstream flow, which at 451.4 was pretty much true already.

But I'm obviously guessing and I hope someone can give an authoritative answer.

R. Neal's picture

I ain't no engineer, but I

I ain't no engineer, but I seem to recall reading somewhere that if water overtops a dam for very long it can undermine the bottom structure/foundation on the downstream side which can weaken it enough to pose a risk of breach.

But in this case I read "loss of control" to mean "involuntary wetlands" downriver.

fischbobber's picture

I seem to recall some

I seem to recall some structural issues with a dam in middle Tennessee as well. Details escape my tired mind at this point though.

Andy Axel's picture

There were some issues with

There were some issues with Center Hill Dam as well.

(link...)

WhitesCreek's picture

I am a recovering engineer

There are tons of variables here but overtopping a dam tends to lead to an erosive failure from the top down. The failure can be partial or total and there are a number of forces that can be unleashed into a number of failure scenarios. Dams are constructed with spillways to alleviate this to a point, but once the water reaches a given level at a reservoir systems and engineering are overwhelmed and events can cascade on their own with catastrophic consequences.

smalc's picture

For a completely concrete

For a completely concrete dam, tied into bedrock on the abutments, overtopping can lead to erosion at the toe where there would be turbulent flow. If the dam has a earthen portion then you could have top down erosion. It's hard to say exactly what they meant by "loosing control of the project." It could have meant that they would have to open all spillways 100% and then would loose all control of downstream flooding.

Regarding the 1000 year event label, it is somewhat subjective. Technically speaking it is a flood level that has a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year. There is not a direct correlation between the two, but the 1000-year rainfalls for Nashville are 9.5" and 11.8" for 24 and 48 hours, respectively.

redmondkr's picture

The Johnstown Flood was the

The Johnstown Flood was the result of the overtopping of the South Fork Hunting and Fishing Club's dam during a heavy rainfall event in May, 1889. It was an earthen dam and all means of lowering the water levels had been removed years before the collapse. The spillway was also clogged as debris collected on a barrier that was installed to keep the club's stock of fish from escaping the lake.

rikki's picture

smalc can probably set us all

smalc can probably set us all straight, but I think it's the edges of a concrete dam that are most vulnerable. Earthen dams are history if they get overtopped, and it's the earth/concrete interface that is most at risk if water exceeds the maximum pool level. The concrete part is a control structure designed to have water flowing through and over it, but where it attaches to land you never want flow.

R. Neal's picture

UPDATE: TVA doubts system

UPDATE: TVA doubts system would have handled the event here.

Also according to the article, the Corps says if Hickory had overtopped it would have added four more feet of water to the flood in Nashville.

WhitesCreek's picture

I don't buy that this was a

I don't buy that this was a 1000 year flood event without knowing a lot more. It was only 12 feet above flood stage.

Andy Axel's picture

Extrapolating from the

Extrapolating from the hundred or so years of rainfall data that we have, I don't know that we've ever seen an accumulation of 13" precip within 48 hours.

And 12' on a river (the Cumberland) with a median discharge rate of 27800 cfs is a significant volume of water.

Some tables & graphs to play with here:

(link...)

WhitesCreek's picture

I'm going to have to look

I'm going to have to look around some but I don't think a 5 to 1 flood to median flow to flood ratio is much of a big deal. Compare that to the Emory River at Oakdale, a much much smaller watershed which has a 60 to 1 ratio for the May 1 date and that's not even a two year flood. The geometry of the watersheds are different for sure and the upstream dams will have smoothed out the high for the Cumberland but I still don't see a 1000 year event in this, particularly when we only have 82 years of data.

The point I want to highlight is that rivers flood. Build in the flood plain and you'll go under at some point. Relying on 5 year or 25 year or 100 year flood levels is a crap shoot. In some watersheds we've seen 25 year floods three years in a row. 100 year flood plains should be in greenbelt at worst and left alone completely in a perfect world.

And this really should be based on floodway which includes the dynamics. Flowing water can reach way above a particular water level to cause harm.

Andy Axel's picture

I'm going to have to send you

I'm going to have to send you a picture from below Barkley Dam. 300K cfs is an impressive sight coming out the last reservoir on the Cumberland.

Andy Axel's picture

Today Below Barkley at Grand Rivers, KY...

Before:

5 days after May Day:

The picture cannot come close to representing the chop in the water below the dam. It's not running 100% wide open... just at about 50%. The extent of the flooding below the dam is substantial.

Andy Axel's picture

Compare to Kentucky Dam, 5 mi from Barkley:

(The Tennessee is obviously up, but it's not nearly as dramatic as the Cumberland.)

(PS Please forgive the darkness in the image. It's underexposed and I don't have GIMP handy on this desktop.)

sugarfatpie's picture

Some of the flood's severity

Some of the flood's severity may be related to sprawl, which creates impermeable surfaces. The rampant and un-checked replacement of woods with pavement, roofs and lawns(which allow about as much infiltration or rainwater as pavement) is a recipe for flooding.

In the past few decades Nashville has become one of the most sprawled out cities in the US, so its not surprising that we're now seeing intensified flooding there.

Andy Axel's picture

Absolutely.Also: River

Absolutely.

Also: River diversion and lack of planning for peak precip events. Examples: I don't think that the Cool Springs Mall has a single catchment area, despite having a creek running immediately adjacent to Mallory Lane. And the area in Bellevue that flooded near the bend in the Harpeth near the US70 exit on the west side was in an "engineered" (read: diverted) area of the river.

Make no mistake, Tennessee is riparian topography... it's not like we're right at sea level, but we do get a significant annual amount of precipitation and need to have planned for it much better than we appear to have.

ETA: See also - the Kingston coal ash spill. Imagine if east Tennessee got an instantaneous dump of a foot of rain or more.

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