According to the National Weather Service, overnight lows will drop mostly into the 30s, with mid to upper 20s in the higher elevations, where light snowfall is possible today and tonight.

The NWS says: "TAKE THE TIME TODAY TO TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT TENDER OUTDOOR PLANTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES."

National Weather Service:

...STORMY WEATHER ON TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND...

Will the cold front and precipitation cause a problem with our commute this morning?

There is a severe weather alert

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
TENNESSEE...

It's dropped 3 degrees in the last hour.

Be careful out there!

Six more weeks of winter chill!

Check out the official website of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.

The police scanner was lit up with calls for police and EMT over here in Blount Co. It's starting to calm down now, but they were overwhelmed there for a while. Wreckers are still busy, though. None available at the moment. Several reports of abandoned vehicles coming in now.

Lots of wrecks, several calls for head injuries and broken bones from falls on the ice. Curiously, many of the wrecks involved SUVs. I guess people think they are invincible in those things.

Michael Silence has the Knox roundup.

News Sentinel: two fatalities, interstate closed, Knox E-911 Center inundated.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY.

A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

Are the stores crowded? Are the shelves empty? Got your chains and snow shovels ready? Are schools closed? Can I get out of going to work tomorrow? Or at least be late? Yeehaw!

In an earlier post I asked how this year's drought compared with previous dry spells. I emailed Mr. Brian Boyd at NOAA, who kindly provided the following information:

Thus far year-to-date Knoxville has had 24.5 inches of precipitation. The normal amount is 37.5 inches. October is typically one of the driest months of the year.

It doesn't appear as if there's much relief on the way:

THE WINTER OUTLOOK (AND THIS COMES WITH THE USUAL DISCLAIMERS ABOUT ACCURACY) IS FOR A WARM AND DRY ONE, AGAIN.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the driest year on record is? I Googled, but did not find.

You think it's hot in East Tennessee? Check out how our friends on the other side of the state are doing. Pay special attention to the "low" numbers at night...

Link...

...on Mt. Leconte.

Link...

Unfortunately, it's hotter than hell everywhere else in East Tennessee. The next few days are going to be ugly hot.

Link...

We've been fortunate this summer to have really pleasant weather. A bit of rain here and there, slightly hot days (high 80s), and comfortable nights (low in the high 60s). That pattern will end this next week...unless you plan to head up to the mountains. Looks like that's where I'm heading.

Looks like Russ McBee's letter worked and we're finally getting some rain. We got about an inch and a half yesterday evening, with more expected today and later in the week.

Serious drought conditions continue throughout the South. The National Weather Service has issued the following statement for East Tennessee:

...ATTENTION: DEEPENING DROUGHT OVER THE REGION...

D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND THEN EASTWARD TO ROUGHLY A KNOXVILLE TO GATLINBURG LINE. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS. IT ALSO COVERS CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA.

D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT VALLEY, AND ALL OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, EXCEPT THE FURTHERMOST TIP. IT ALSO COVER A SLIM STRIP OF SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY, VIRGINIA.

D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT COVERS THE NORTHERNMOST CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF TENNESSEE AND VIRTUALLY ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

The report also indicates record low water tables, soil moisture, and stream flows. It also says that prolonged periods of rain and/or tropical storm activity and a wet summer, fall, and winter are needed to recover from a long term drought, but this is not expected. Citizens are urged to conserve water.

Here is a snapshot of rainfall in Knoxville (TYS) since 2000 (source):

The average rainfall for May 2000-2006 was 4.68 inches. May 2007 rainfall was 1.48 inches. The average YTD rainfall for May 2000-2006 was 22.29 inches. May YTD rainfall was 12.81 inches.

The National Weather Service also notes the following:

• Knoxville received 1.48 inches of rain in May, which was 3.20 inches below normal. It ranked as the 13th driest May on record at Knoxville. Measurable rainfall occurred on only five days, and only one of those days had more than one-quarter of an inch of rainfall. The heaviest rain fell on the 5th when 1.20 inches of rain was recorded, which accounted for nearly all of the rain for the entire month. The driest May out of 137 years at Knoxville was back in 1941, when only 0.71 inches was recorded.

• The monthly average temperature at Knoxville was 70.0 degrees, which was 4.0 degrees above normal. It ranked as the 23rd warmest May on record at Knoxville. The warmest May at Knoxville was back in 1962, when the average temperature was 74.0 degrees.

• Knoxville received a total of only 9.15 inches of rain this spring, which was 4.69 inches below normal. It ranked as the 23rd driest spring on record at Knoxville. The driest spring at Knoxville was back in 1925, when only 5.80 inches was recorded.

• The average seasonal temperature at Knoxville this spring was 61.0 degrees, which was 3.1 degrees above normal. It tied with 1974 as the 10th warmest spring on record at Knoxville. The warmest spring at Knoxville was back in 1974, when the average temperature was 62.6 degrees.

Just had a "baby boomer" roll through. Wind and a little thunder, maybe a 10th of an inch of rain. But at least it's rain. First I've seen in what seems like weeks. Hope we get some more. Last I heard we are about 9.5 inches under normal.

Looks like they are getting heavier rains further down South in Georgia. They need it worse than we do. And Florida is getting some much needed rain from Tropical Storm Barry that has formed in the Gulf.

fires befall nation...

Wildfires on both coasts and the Canadian border...
Major flooding in the MidWest...

...The drought and the Easter Freeze are also affecting crops and livestock...

Then to top it off, "Subtropical Storm Andrea" is causing a bit of a todo...

Yeehaw!!! Got your disaster supplies at the ready? What was it I was supposed to have ready anyway?

Michael Silence files this report on possible wide-spread crop damage from the weekend freeze. Sounds like apples will be scarce this fall.

UPDATE: A roundup from around the South at Facing South.

Wishful thinking would not keep winter from revisiting. It was 30.2 degrees this morning, and in the otherwise blue sky there was one big gray cloud right over our house emitting light snow flurries.

It's my fault. I've been in denial all week. When we went out for our evening walk yesterday it was 51 degrees. I usually wear shorts when it's 50+ and sunny, so I wore shorts and a hooded sweatshirt. But there was a cold northwest wind blowing and by the time we got home it was 49. My final act of defiance was of no avail.

My Mom tells me every year, "don't plant anything until after April 15th." Someday I will learn to listen to my Mom. Hope our blooming azaleas will be OK.

UPDATE: I guess I should be thankful. It could be a lot worse!

"We're just trying to keep up. It's almost an unreal amount," said Mayor Randy Bateman of Oswego, where 70 inches of snow had fallen by Thursday morning. "We catch up when it stops, but then it just comes again, even heavier."

What fun?!?! I could handle that for about a day.

The Orlando Sentinel has dramatic photos of the devastation left behind by tornadoes that ripped through Central Florida early this AM. Here's the wire report.

Michael Silence's in-laws live in one of the hardest hit neighborhoods. Thankfully he reports they are OK, but he is not sure about damage to their home.

Tennessee is moving to a warmer climate:

NASHVILLE - A national arborist group has updated the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plant hardiness zone map, placing most of Tennessee in a warmer category because of recent climate patterns.

[..]

"Things are surviving further north than they did before," said Nashville plant enthusiast Mary Wilson. "The maps are good guidelines so you don't spend money on what absolutely won't work."

I guess it's nice that we will now be able to plant palm trees and whatnot, but what the article doesn't mention is how climate change affects the ecosystem:

After three decades of warming not seen in more than 1,000 years, spring arrives earlier around the world. As species shift their ranges toward the cooler poles or higher elevations, the season brings unexpected arrivals of migrating birds and mistimed hatchings of insects and flowerings of trees.

Some species on the move may flourish, but others may die. And the loss of just one kind of plant or animal, scientists say, can set off a cascade of biological events that can extinguish a whole ecosystem.

On the other hand, all this miserable, cold rain we've had for the past few days would have been a foot of snow thirty years ago. So there's that.

It's snowing outside my window! Oh wait, it just stopped. Oh wait, it started again. It's 38.5 degrees according to my thermometer, so no sledding. But I'm guessing they are canceling school and there are long lines at Kroger.

Almost a week after the big storm, 180,000 homes and businesses are still without power. There is still hope power will be restored to all by Christmas.

WorkEasy, one of our service providers is in the Seattle area. They have struggled to provide services throughout the storm, and I have to say, as usual, they are doing a great job! WorkEasy moved from Boca Raton to Seattle 5 or 6 years ago. I guess this storm is better than some of the hurricanes that passed through Florida in the last couple of years.

400 flights canceled at Chicago O'Hare. 200 flights canceled at Dallas Fort-Worth. Other Midwest airports canceling flights and trying to keep up with heavy snowfall. Not a good day for travelers trying to get home.

At about 6:30 AM, the temperature here was 71.4 and we are experiencing scattered rain and strong winds with what seem like 50 MPH gusts. The Weather Service says this will be the high for the day and the temperature will plummet to 45 by the afternoon, with a low of 30 tonight.

Here's the National Weather Service severe weather alert for all of East Tennessee including Knox, Blount, and Anderson:

247 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006 /347 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES... SO USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING. THESE WINDS CAN ALSO CAUSE SOME TREES TO BE BLOWN DOWN.

WATE files this exclusive, heartbreaking report about a couple whose honeymoon was disrupted when Hurricane John threatened their resort at Cabo. They missed the last plane out, and had to ride it out at their resort.

That would definitely suck. But meanwhile, very few of the 80,000 homes destroyed by Katrina in the great American city of New Orleans have been rebuilt. As many as 200,000 evacuees have still not returned to the city, many of them homeless and unemployed and separated from their families for a year.

Here are some of their stories in photos.

Heading over to Radnor Lake State Park yesterday for a long hike, I noticed that there was some weather rumbling on the horizon.

So I packed my new point & shoot camera in a Ziploc bag and tucked it into my waistpack, just in case things took a turn.

Sure enough, when I got to the park, the wind was kicking up, and it was starting to sprinkle. Fair enough, I thought. Getting wet during these oppressively hot conditions wouldn't be the worst thing to happen.

As I made for the trail, the rain started coming in front of me, but it was otherwise sunny behind me.

Ideal conditions for a rainbow.

So I made tracks for the spillway, and sure enough...

The rest of the trip was just fantastic. The weather kept a lot of people off the trails, so I spotted a few heron, some young deer foraging, a pair of otter jostling with each other over a bluegill, a pileated woodpecker stripping the bark off of a fallen log, and a couple of prothonotary warblers.

I'm going to make it a point to get to the park on such days.

Just a quickie update for the weekend...

From a high of 99 today in the 3 o'clock hour (CDT), the temperature is now down to 77 in the 6 o'clock hour and falling.

Some high winds are coming with this change, but for those of you out east, you might have a cooler weekend to look forward to.

Enjoy. It's a sorely needed break from all this darned heat.

When there is dangerously high heat in NYC they open Cooling Centers. I heard this on the news the other day. Something I have never heard of before. According to the powers that be, at least on their web-site, "Currently there is no heat emergency in the City. At this time, the OEM Cooling Center application is NOT activated. "

Now, St. Louis is opening Cooling Centers due to power outages. They have also called in the National Guard.

We live in interesting times.

The Justice Department, Internal Revenue Service, Commerce Department, and more were closed this morning due to storms, floods, and mudslides in the DC area. Oh, my. Oh, my. Do they need Fema? The National Guard? I hope they get what they need. What will this country do without the IRS and Justice and Commerce departments?

Seriously, I hope all is well for the people in these areas.