Padgett says he's gaining on Rogero

Thu

Oct 27 2011

02:21 pm

By: R. Neal

Says internal poll shows Madeline 38%, Padgett 32% and Undecided 30%.

From Padgett campaign email (forwarded to me):

A survey conducted by Premiere Political Communications shows a tightening race for Knoxville City Mayor. Mark Padgett receives 32% of the vote compared to Madeline Rogero’s 38%, with nearly 30% undecided.

Mark Padgett clearly has the momentum. Padgett has moved 21 points relative to Rogero since the primary, and if the trend continues, he will win.

The high number of undecided voters bodes well for Padgett and suggests that those who voted for Madeline Rogero in the primary are having second thoughts as they get to know both candidates better.

About the Survey

The 477-person sample was drawn randomly from a list of likely November 2011 voters and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. The one-question survey was conducted by Premiere Political Communications with live interviewers from 10/22/2011 through 10/24/2011. The question “if the election were held today, who would you vote for in the race for Knoxville City Mayor, Mark Padgett or Madeline Rogero?” was asked before identifying that the Mark Padgett for Mayor Campaign paid for the call, and the candidates’ names were rotated.

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Would like to know how they

Submitted by Rachel on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 2:45pm.

Would like to know how they define likely voters. Can make a big difference.

And are we seriously supposed to believe that Madeline has LOST 10 pts since the primary??? Of course Mark has gained, but I don't see many Madeline voters abandoning her.

Sounds fishy to me.

Submitted by R. Neal on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 2:45pm.

Sounds fishy to me.

Also, note that Mark had 22%

Submitted by Rachel on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 2:46pm.

Also, note that Mark had 22% in the primary and now is at 32% - which means he's only picked up 10% from Harmon voters. That doesn't sound like enough movement to me to put him over the top.

10 points, but yeah. My math

Submitted by R. Neal on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 4:12pm.

10 points, but yeah. My math says he needs all of them, and all of Hultquist's and Bennett's, plus some. Unless some of Madeline's people stay home. Not sure why they would do that.

AS I recall, "Likely" voters

Submitted by CE Petro on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 6:10pm.

AS I recall, "Likely" voters is anyone 18 years of age and older that would be eligible to vote. Polling "likely" voters is a broader sampling from polling "Registered" voters (and often looks better for the person that paid for the polling).
Never mind, had my terms mixed up. Likely voters are registered voters that are likely to vote.

~~his polling company may not be using the same distinctions. I'll have to go check them out.~~

Yes, but how do you define

Submitted by Rachel on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 7:20pm.

Yes, but how do you define "likely to vote"? Every campaign/poll does it differently.

For Padgett's poll to have much meaning, he needs to tell us how it defined "likely voters."

BREAKING: Mark Padgett

Submitted by Bbeanster on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 3:27pm.

BREAKING: Mark Padgett announces clear path to victory.

Mayoral candidate Mark Padgett is revealing that his campaign has gained 21% in voter approval in the past 14 minutes. Padgett made the announcement while sitting astride his flying pig and soaring over Knoxville while looking down at the little people...

(This from a friend who wishes to remain anonymous)

I have

Submitted by Gregg Lonas on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 8:16pm.

I have been missing a pig for a few days.

Are you a Pink Floyd fan?

Submitted by rryan1963 on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 8:23pm.

Are you a Pink Floyd fan?

Please tell your friend that

Submitted by Rachel on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 10:44pm.

Please tell your friend that was pretty damn funny.

A Pig

Submitted by fischbobber on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 10:52pm.

I just love a pig, I swear I do. Does he get carsick?

; )

Padgett

Submitted by Ray Wells (not verified) on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 3:35pm.

Let's hear some more from Padgett on the five jobs he created by selling to Daddy's cronies.

Donila sends a link to the

Submitted by R. Neal on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 4:03pm.

Donila sends a link to the polling company's win/loss record for 2010.
Looks like they lost 55% and won 45%. At least they are a bunch of hippies, as Donila says.

Really telling that they do

Submitted by Veronica (not verified) on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 5:02pm.

Really telling that they do not attach a report or anything from this company, only a summary memo from the campaign. Looking at the company website they claim to do robopolls. This was done by people. Madeline made the report from her survey for the primary available and gave it to the press. I would ask for that before assigning any credibility. This whole thing is pretty shaky to put it mildly.

I also question that there

Submitted by Rachel on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 5:57pm.

I also question that there are actually 30% LIKELY voters who are undecided at this point - 10 days before the election and halfway through early voting.

Yeah, I was wondering about

Submitted by R. Neal on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 6:11pm.

Yeah, I was wondering about that "undecided" figure.

Oh, wait. This is Knoxville.

Anyway, they weren't undecided in the primary, and I haven't seen anything that would change that.

30% hung up the phone.

Submitted by reform4 on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 8:02pm.

That's my guess.

A source I have in the City-County Building said Pashett did the poll with his own staff.

No bias there.

I was wondering about that

Submitted by Rachel on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 10:43pm.

I was wondering about that too, since 32+38+30=100. No room there for "refused to answer." But w/o the poll's internals (Ryan, see what I'm saying?), we can't tell.

I also heard that Padgett did the actual calling with his own folks from his HQ. Unlike some people, I will state that, although I'm quoting a source I consider credible, I don't know for sure and therefore may be wrong about that.

This is kind of an

Submitted by rryan1963 on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 7:06pm.

This is kind of an interesting thread, especially when the other Democrat in the race has some good news. What I find most interesting is when Madeline Rogero released the results of her Poll back in September, there was not a single post questioning those results.

(link...)

Wow.

That's because she didn't

Submitted by Rachel on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 7:19pm.

That's because she didn't just release results, she released the poll's methodology and all its internals, which Frank Cagle thorougly analyzed in Metro Pulse.

If Padgett would do the same, I'd be very interested in looking at it.

The Rogero Poll thread was

Submitted by rryan1963 on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 7:43pm.

The Rogero Poll thread was posted on July 25. Frank Cagle's article appeared on August 3. (link...)

What did Frank Cagle's story have to do with the Rogero thread I mentioned?

You're missing my point.

Submitted by Rachel on Thu, 2011/10/27 - 10:54pm.

You're missing my point. Madeline released the methodology and the internals of her polls at the same time she released the results. It says so right there on that KV thread you're quoting.

That info makes it possible for people (like me or Frank or you) to get a much better idea of how reliable the poll might be. It's transparency at its best, and it makes it impossible to hide anything in the poll you really don't want the public to see.

Again, get Padgett to release his methodology and internals and we'll talk.