Thu
Oct 2 2008
10:50 am
The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect
By: sugarfatpie

From my new favorite polling site: 538
(link...)

Bradley Effect: the notion that some material number of voters will lie about their intentions to pollsters, claiming that they will vote for a black candidate when in fact they will vote for the white guy.

As we have described here before, polling numbers from the primaries suggested no presence of a Bradley Effect. On the contrary, it was Barack Obama -- not Hillary Clinton -- who somewhat outperformed his polls on Election Day.

In the comments:

Evan said...
The only slight issue with your analysis is that a primary is not a general election, and that the Bradley Effect may be minimal among the Democratic party (a group that contains the preponderance of blacks, supporters of affirmative action, and etc.) but not minimal among the electorate at large.

You might test this by looking at results like Deval Patrick's or Harold Ford's senate race. It'd be imperfect (as they're not national races and too small a sample to be statistically relevant) but it might give some indication.

August 11, 2008 7:11 AM
Nate (the author of the article above) said...
Evan,

People have in fact looked at races like Patrick/Ford/etc. and concluded that there was no evidence of a Bradley Effect.
KC's picture

I don't think that any of

Submitted by KC on Thu, 2008/10/02 - 11:01am.

I don't think that any of the conventional wisdom theories apply this time around.

These are hardly conventional times. I would say that politically there on par with Carter's or Reagan's wins.

Both of them were elected because each one represented change at a time when it was believed that drastic change was needed.

Both candidates know that this election year, that's why both are claiming to be agents of change.

MDB's picture

that's why both are claiming

Submitted by MDB on Thu, 2008/10/02 - 11:35am.

that's why both are claiming to be agents of change.

Well, yes, but...

The candidate from the party outside the White House always runs as a change candidate. That's the only tactic that makes sense for an opposition candidate; what's he gonna do, run with the slogan, "More of the same, we'll just be better at it!"?

A VP or former VP at least has to establish some differences from whichever President he served, so he looks like he's his own man and not a lap dog. That even holds true when you're trying to succeed a President as well-liked as Reagan.

Even when you're a Senator like McCain representing the party in power, you still have to establish credentials as an independent thinker.

Obviously, a sitting President won't run on much of a change ticket, because that's admitting you're wrong.

So, while I agree that the electorate really feels big change is a necessity right now, I'm not convinced running on a "change" platform is all that usual.

R. Neal's picture

Let's hope it's like JFK,

Submitted by R. Neal on Thu, 2008/10/02 - 11:03am.

Let's hope it's like JFK, too -- the only election since the Depression that Tennessee didn't go with the winner.

sugarfatpie's picture

TN didn't vote for the

Submitted by sugarfatpie on Thu, 2008/10/02 - 1:14pm.

TN didn't vote for the winner in 2000, Al Gore.

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

R. Neal's picture

Heh. Got me on a

Submitted by R. Neal on Thu, 2008/10/02 - 1:15pm.

Heh. Got me on a technicality.

Marc Baber's picture

How do you know?

Submitted by Marc Baber (not verified) on Sun, 2008/10/19 - 1:56pm.

Sounds like Tennessee accurately called the real winner in 2000, given that the NYT reported Gore actually won in Florida.

sugarfatpie's picture

Huh?

Submitted by sugarfatpie on Mon, 2008/10/20 - 11:03am.

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

Marc Baber's picture

Bradley Effect -- Schmadley Effect

Submitted by Marc Baber (not verified) on Sun, 2008/10/19 - 1:53pm.

Does anyone have any evidence whatsoever that the so-called Bradley Effect was ever real? Yes, I know the official results differed from the polls, but how do we know this wasn't just the usual election-rigging?

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