Submitted by Elrod on Wed, 2009/01/28 - 9:36pm

In 2002, Gallup polled voter party ID in all fifty states and discovered that the nation had a Republican tilt. In 2008, Gallup conducted the same poll and showed a dramatic shift to the Democrats.

Anybody following national politics is aware of this trend. We are a long way from 2002, when Democrats cowered in fear at the sight of George W. Bush.

But what about here in Tennessee? Haven't we heard that Tennessee has gone the opposite direction? In 2002 a Democrat, Phil Bredesen, won the Governorship in a close election. The Dems had a good year in TN in 2002. They did not have a good year in 2008.

But is that because the state's party identification shifted toward the Republican Party? Or is it because of something else (poor GOTV strategy, bad candidates, weak messaging, etc.).

Here are the numbers:

In 2002, 49.5% of Tennesseans identified themselves as Republican while only 41.5% called themselves Democrats.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/7543/Special-Report-StatebyState-Analysis-Rev...

In 2005, that GOP advantage essentially disappeared. Republicans claimed a 46.8% share with Democrats at 46.7%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/21004/Special-Report-Many-States-Shift-Democr...

In 2006, the biggest Democratic year in decades and in the midst of Harold Ford Jr.'s historic run for the Senate (and Bredesen's re-election), the Dems took over party ID in Tennessee at 47% to 44% for the Republicans.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/26308/Democratic-Edge-Partisanship-2006-Evide...

So did party ID shift back to the Republicans in 2008 - a year when Republicans made significant gains within the state?

Not exactly.

In 2008, the margin of Democrats over Republicans expanded from 3 points to 5 points.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114016/State-States-Political-Party-Affiliati...

The movement has been slow and consistent from 2002 to the present. Democrats moved from an 8-point deficit to a 5-point advantage. That's a 13-point shift.

So did Tennessee just shift less than the rest of the country from the GOP to the Dems?

Well, let's look at neighboring Virginia and North Carolina, where Democrats have clearly won significant statewide elections.
Virginia in 2002: Republicans led by 6
Virginia in 2008: Democrats lead by 9
Change between 2002 and 2008: Democrats gain 15 points.
Not all that different from our 13-point shift in Tennessee.

How about North Carolina:
NC in 2002: 3.5 led by Republicans
NC in 2008: 11 lead by Democrats
Change: 14.5 to the Democrats

CONCLUSION: Tennessee moved only slightly less to the Democratic column between 2002 and 2008 than did the "new blue" Southern states of Virginia and North Carolina. Note that many of those old-school Dixiecrats moved to the GOP between 1993 and 2002 - it's unlikely that people moved TOWARD the Democratic Party in the last few years just to vote Republican.

Keep this data in mind when you think about elections going forward. We are not a hopelessly red state. Our state's political leaning is NOT reflected in the new State Senate or State Legislature. Nor was it reflected in the Presidential election of 2008.

Democrats lost in Tennessee for other reasons - failure to mobilize for this election, poor messaging, weak GOTV, etc. We can debate all those things with the new TNDP chair.

But remember this: Tennessee does not have a shortage of Democratic-identifying adults.

36
vote
Brian A.'s picture

Scoreboard

There's a saying in sports, whenever fans or players are arguing about plays or statistics. Someone simply says "Scoreboard," meaning look at the scoreboard--that's the bottom line.

Here the election is the scoreboard. Spin poll results however you want. The bottom line is that in real life Tennessee, Democrats got smoked.

That is all.

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

Elrod's picture

No denying that

The question is: why?

reform4's picture

Two words

Gray.

Sasser.

Here's two more:

Gutless.

Leadership.

When you're own leadership can't come out and offer visible support to Barrack Obama (who, face it, won by a relative landslide), it's hard to energize the base and the leaning folks. Leadership is infectious. Lack of leadership is, too. See also the low approval ratings for the Democratic Congress 2006-2008.

With the latest "we'll do it without you" victory today, you'll see approval go up at least 5 points, more if they continue with this trend.

R. Neal's picture

That's an interesting

That's an interesting analysis Elrod. Thanks.

I don't know what the problem is, but I think you hit on most of it with GOTV and messaging. I also think the Governor and Dem leadership blowing off Obama cost us down ticket in 2008.

Also, the defeats were bad in the legislature but not that bad. Republicans hold only a one seat "majority" in the House, and that one seat has made a deal with the Democrats.

The Senate results were more disappointing. Dems could have run better candidates in a couple of races, but overall the TNGOP pulled out all the stops on a few key races and just plain beat us. Dems tried to play their game with some ugly, negative advertising and found out that stuff only works for Republicans.

Maybe it's partly psychological, in that TN Dems are convinced it's hopeless and this affects GOTV in a self-defeating way. They forget we have a Dem governor and Dem majority in our Congressional delegation. (Which Republicans would like to correct if they have control for redistricting after the 2010 census.)

And Harold Ford Jr. came this close in 2006. He did better than Obama in TN. Where did all those Dems go?

The last Knoxville City Council race was a good example. This at-large seat was up for grabs, and Dems ran a qualified candidate. They only needed to get out a small percentage of sympathetic registered voters to pick one off. Turnout was abysmal, and was probably made up of mostly the establishment Republican's friends and family and West Knox voters who vote Republican by reflex. (Yes, I realize City Council races are non-partisan, just like the City Mayor. Right. But to me these races are also about party building.)

Another interesting example was the Mike Meares defeat in Blount Co. Everybody in the county knows the guy or his daddy or his brother or his sister and likes them. If he had run as a Republican he would have won easily. As it turns out, the Blount GOP unleashed a blistering attack just because, and Meares actually got less votes in the general than he did in the primary when he had no opposition. These are not loyal Democrats, and they are too easily persuaded by GOP BS. (There are also some moles and infiltrators hanging around the Blount DP, in my opinion.)

Let's hope Chip Forrester has a plan to fix all this.

KC's picture

I understand that parties

I understand that parties are necessary in most campaign organizing and structuring, but I also think it's a major mistake see everything in "party's gains/losses terms."

Actually, that same "all or nothing" party mindset that seems to be advocated a lot on this website, is most likely going to be the Republican party's undoing over the next two years. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-loewe/a-hole-worth-digging_b_161550....

Republicans have done GOTV very well, along with using potent doses of fear to motivate the electorate.

Democrats seem to take comfort in the fact that even if they lose, they've at least taken a "higher road." They need to drop that line of thought, and understand that most people, in general elections, don't vote based on party.

They vote based on who they think will look out for their interests and, as a result, allay their fears. That's what happened in November. President Obama didn't win as a Democrat. He won as candidate who connected with the people, and who could address their fears.

I've already heard national Democrats talking about "educating" the public, so as to maintain the Democrats' majorities in 2010. That's a mistake.

Not only does it sound condescending and elitist, as in "people vote for Republicans because they don't understand the issues," but it diverts attention from what wins elections: candidates who can connect and make people believe their fears won't be realized.

R. Neal's picture

Most of that goes to a)

Most of that goes to a) better candidates, and b) better messaging.

As for the party gains/losses scorekeeping, that's the system we have and have to operate in. You can call it liberal v. conservative, or progressive v. corporatist, or democratic v. authoritarian, or Democrat v. Republican or whatever you want, but it is what it is and folks generally have to line up and take sides one way or another in the voting booth.

As for educating voters, it should be pretty obvious by now that this is a problem and the national Democrats (and state parties for that matter) are correct to address it. Once people understand and see for themselves that conservative, corporatist, authoritarian, Republican values and policies lead to a failing economy, a failed foreign policy, a failed energy policy, failing schools, a failing health care system, unemployment, bankruptcy, foreclosures, poverty, teen pregnancy, epidemic drug abuse, violence and crime, environmental catastrophes, etc., the country will be better off.

As for the all or nothing party mindset at this website, this is an outlet for East Tennessee Democrats and progressives to have a voice that they do not have in the GOP controlled media, government, and business community.

JaHu's picture

As for educating voters, it

As for educating voters, it should be pretty obvious by now that this is a problem and the national Democrats (and state parties for that matter) are correct to address it. Once people understand and see for themselves that conservative, corporatist, authoritarian, Republican values and policies lead to a failing economy, a failed foreign policy, a failed energy policy, failing schools, a failing health care system, unemployment, bankruptcy, foreclosures, poverty, teen pregnancy, epidemic drug abuse, violence and crime, environmental catastrophes, etc., the country will be better off.

But they won't see it, even our democratic controlled senate doesn't see it.
The republicans are still controlling and manipulating the democrats. With all the possible impeachable offenses committed by the past administration. Just who is tying the senates hands in impeachment hearings? A Democrat, Blagojevich! And it was all brought about by the republicans. The republicans will always try, and seem to be pretty successful at it, to make the democrats look like the bad guys in this country.

Elrod's picture

Insert "Reagan" for 'Obama"...

...and you have the same result. Ronald Reagan, held up as THE hero of the Republican Party won overwhelmingly on the force of his personality and charisma. His conservative ideas were popular among a segment of the voting population but never among the majority. He ably captured the mood of the country in 1980 and adjusted accordingly. He was always far more popular than his party.

But that doesn't mean he was like a punter overkicking his coverage. It helps a ton to have a popular and charismatic leader who outdraws his party. Even with all the bizarre hagiography that follows, it helps to have a figurehead to rally around.

Andrew Jackson built the Democratic Party on this basis.

bill young's picture

Obama

Obama's national campaign never set foot in Tennessee in the primary or the general...except for the debate in Nashville.

In the primary the idea in Tennessee was not to spend time or money & hope the grassroots & national tv would keep Obama from getting blown out in the delegate count.It worked.

In the general again no money no time & ask east Tennesseans to help with the effort in Va & NC.That worked too.

bill young's picture

City Mayor

Knoxville's city elections are non partisan it's the law & I think it's important.

For example,Madeline is not the Democratic candidate for Knoxville's mayor.

Madeline is a candidate for Knoxville's mayor who is a Democrat.

In my experences in city races different coalitions form than in a partisan county race.

There is no knee jerk reaction from partisans on both sides..I can't support that candidate even though I like them because I'm a ..Republican/Democrat & they aren't.

We need everybody no matter of Party to support Madeline in the campaign because of her ideas for the future of our city.

sugarfatpie's picture

Go Madeline!

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

KC's picture

Once people understand and

Once people understand and see for themselves that conservative, corporatist, authoritarian, Republican values and policies lead to a failing economy, a failed foreign policy, a failed energy policy, failing schools, a failing health care system, unemployment, bankruptcy, foreclosures, poverty, teen pregnancy, epidemic drug abuse, violence and crime, environmental catastrophes, etc., the country will be better off.

No, no, no.

I completely agree with you that that's how it should work, but that's now how it does.

Look at it this way, which kind of boss will get the most productivity out of his/her employees?

The one who can recite all the company's statistics concerning costs, revenues, and profits, and how it relates to worker productivity and how the worker will benefit if those goals are met, or the one who can connect to the employees' own interests and motivations and is perceived to be working not just in the company's business interests, but in the employees' interests as well?

Thoughtful, deep thinking, ( and well meaning) people always want to think that in politics all they have to do is to make everyone else thoughtful and deep thinking, and then they will see things their way.

That strategy almost always fails.

At a TNGOP get together last year in Nashville, a GOP campaign consultant said that if the presidential race in 2004 had been about the issues, Kerry would have won.

When President-elect Obama first met with President Bush before the inauguration, Obama reportedly asked him if he recognized any of his campaign tactics and strategy in Obama's campaign. President-elect Obama said that's where some of the stuff came from.

You're right that those issues need to be addressed, but until recently for the national Democrats how it was addressed was the problem. Democrats present the issues, stand back and say "See, now since we've educated you, you can make the right choice." And, lo and behold, they'll go to the booth and vote Republican.

And as far as the party stuff goes, they do provide political support and infrastructure, but both parties have continued to lose members recently, and except for getting President Obama's campaign email lists, will likely do so at the state and local levels.

We're just not a party, or group country. And an assumption that all those new voters and swing voters who voted for Obama now all want to be Democrats or part of some larger political group is a dangerous misperception of the current political environment, at least how I see it.

sugarfatpie's picture

BINGO!

You're right that those issues need to be addressed, but until recently for the national Democrats how it was addressed was the problem. Democrats present the issues, stand back and say "See, now since we've educated you, you can make the right choice." And, lo and behold, they'll go to the booth and vote Republican.

I couldn't agree with you more.
Personality and personal narratives trump the issues just about every time.

They key for progressives of any party is to be able to grasp the issues, the art of connecting with voters, and the mechanics of GOTV.
Obama has no peers on GOTV, other than the GOP party based GOTV machine of Gingrich and Rove.
On issues & charisma...Obama did OK on this, better than Kerry or Gore, but not as good as Bill Clinton IMHO.
Hillary did OK on this too, though not as well as Obama.

Of course complete ignorance of the issues will overcome any amount of charisma, see Sarah Palin.
And a landslide of bad economic news will slay an economically ignorant war hero, see John McCain.

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

Nobody's picture

Locally we need new

Locally we need new leadership.

The ship has been sinking for years captain, dont you think it is time to abandon ship and save those that can swim?

April 4th, 2009 is the reorganization convention for the Knox County Democratic Party? Where? TBA. I cant wait.

bill young's picture

Nobody

A myth..Who knows

A Chicago story

Fellow walks in to Democratic headquarters

The ward boss chomping on a cigar dont look up from whatever he was doing & ask the fellow:

"Who sent you?"

The fellow replies:

"Nobody"

The ward boss looks up & says:

"I don't want nobody..nobody sent."

So nobody who ya for @ the County Convention & have u got 100 votes?

KC's picture

On issues & charisma...Obama

On issues & charisma...Obama did OK on this, better than Kerry or Gore, but not as good as Bill Clinton IMHO.

True. But then again, along with Clinton's charisma went that problem of upon whom he using his charisma.

President Obama is a committed husband and family man.

That takes the steam out of a lot of the cultural battles that Clinton put himself, and with him the Democrats, in.

KC's picture

upon whom he using Should

upon whom he using

Should be "upon whom he was using...."

StaceyDiamond's picture

shift

On NC and Va., I wonder if with that kind of work done here we could have been stronger for Obama. The mega mega churches are also still very strong here. Don't know if that's equally so in NC or Va. I think Clinton's fun with cigars also hurt Al Gore, and its really a shame American's are so unforgiving on lying about sex but more accepting if you lie about war.

KC's picture

and its really a shame

and its really a shame American's are so unforgiving on lying about sex

Remember he was forgiven, and when polls showed that more than half of religious conservatives opposed impeachment, according to David Kuo's book Tempting Faith , James Dobson said
"Our (emphasis mine) people no longer recognize the nature of evil."

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