Mon
Sep 15 2008
11:12 am
By: R. Neal
From the Associated Press (Yahoo)
Oil prices plunged to a seven-month low Monday as the Gulf Coast energy infrastructure appeared relatively unharmed after Hurricane Ike... "Fears of widespread refinery damage have been allayed considerably and a number of facilities are coming back up in a timely fashion," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.
Front page of today's Pilot News Service
Pump prices jumped above $5 per gallon in some parts of the country Sunday as Hurricane Ike left refineries and pipelines idled and destroyed at least 10 offshore petroleum platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
But curiously there's a new online story, which says local AAA officials are baffled by higher prices here than anywhere else in the U.S., and also quotes the first AP article. Revising and extending their remarks, I guess.
UPDATE: A reader brings our attention to the Pilot gas price checker website. Click the "unleaded" price column header to sort by price. Local prices are highest of any in the U.S. As our reader notes, "Perhaps the hurricane hit Tennessee and we just don't know it yet."
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Pilot keeps 1 to 1 1/2 day inventory?
Did you happen to catch Jim Haslam on the HHH Show this morn?
Your earlier thought about how maybe the various oil companies' customary level of reserves pose an energy security problem (and my thought about how this Just In Time inventory approach could be keeping prices lower than they might have been) appear to be spot on.
Haslam Sr. says that Pilot keeps only a day, day-and-a-half inventory--and Knoxvillians bought two days worth of gas on Friday! A little spooky, really...
Entire interview here: (link...)
Knox's higher "carbon footprint," too?
Another thought on this subject also comes to mind:
It wasn't a month or two ago that KNS ran a page one story on Knoxville having the 10th worst "carbon footprint" in the nation, presumably because WE DRIVE A LOT AND LACK MUCH PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION.
(I don't live on a K-trans route, for instance, and I also lack bus service to my two kids' schools. You can bet I was among those culprits filling up Friday and topping off Saturday morn.)
Wonder what this may have to do with our being hit harder now?
I listened to that show...
First, Haslam bragged about how they get such good prices because they buy a million gallons at a time, how they were paying $4.80 for gas on Friday, not making any money, waaaah waaaah waaaah.
Then a caller called in and said he saw gas in Lake City for $3.99, and how could that be? Haslam said "well, maybe sometimes someone buying a single load (8000 gal) might get a better price."
It was FUNNY seeing him pwned.
That's another point. Pilot
That's another point. Pilot probably sets the market in E. TN because of their volume.
Another item
7 days.
That's how long it takes for the product to travel to Knoxville in the pipeline.
Another data point:
Prices went up on Friday. The hurricane didn't even hit until Saturday. Pre-hurricane damage from last week ya' think?
And on these people filling up their tanks with gas:
(link...)
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson
7 days. That's how long it
I'm still struggling with this point. One Reuters story I read said that Colonial's "pipeline 2," I think they called it, which carries product to New England through the Carolinas, suffered damage during Gustav and wasn't up to capacity until just before Ike.
When I posted that link to the KNS site, another poster countered with a Reuters story to the effect that "pipeline 2" was operational, though below capacity, from September 10 forward.
I dunno, then, how low local retailers' reserves were running between Gustav and Ike, nor what level of service "pipeline 2" was providing retailers just prior to Ike, for the 10th-13th?
If Haslam Sr. is being truthful (and Bill Weigel, too), it does seem possible that 1) they carry low inventories to start with, 2) these pipeline problems over the last two weeks have disrupted deliveries and impacted inventory levels further, 3) Knoxvillians may have "topped off" at higher rates than did some other cities' residents, and (as I observed, not Haslam/Weigel) 4)we've simply got more folks on the road, per capita, than many other areas???
I commented over at KNS that I'll feel like I understand the picture better after I know what those Florida Pilot invoices look like, that they'll be turning over to that state's AG...
On inventories, I believe
On inventories, I believe there are wholesaler distribution terminals in between the pipeline and the gas station. But maybe Pilot runs their own, don't know.
Pipeline 2 back up, refineries back down, just before Ike?
And on this point...didn't prices go up on Friday because although Colonial's "pipeline 2" was just coming back on-line after Gustav (at less than full capacity), refineries were simultaneously just shutting down for Ike? And again, I think both Pilot and Weigels did say that they placed orders on Friday, Pilot at "spot" pricing?
Now, I'm not necessarily defending Pilot or Weigels right now, just sifting through all the particulars, as we're made aware of them...
Three's another pipeline
Three's another pipeline called "the Plantation" that comes through here. Do we get gas from that one? What's its status?
It's the Fulmer Filler' Up Buyout Plan, spread across us all
After Fulmer goes 4 - 8 this season, the UT Athletic Department will look to Big Jim to buyout the great orange coach and Ole Jim will happen to have an extra 3 or 4 million laying around he skimmed on the locals during the home football season and he'll throw it their way, making the grand orange one go away.
Downright brilliant if you ask me. New coach, paid for by folks just scraping by in good old Knocksville.
Will he have enough left
Will he have enough left over to fly the jet down to see Vanderbilt in the Citrus Bowl?
By way of comparison...
This morning, gasoline at the Exxon outside my subdivision in East Texas dropped 10c and the proprietor (to whom I spoke) said he expects another substantial drop on his next shipment. October futures are around $2.53 this morning also, meaning that if current trends hold, 2 weeks from now, gasoline here will be going for around $3.10/gallon.
I'm not sure about all of the factors affecting gas pricing in East Tennessee, but it sure sounds like the supply chain needs some better management.
I'm suspecting it's a little like a bank run...
When Bill Weigel imprudently mentioned to the news media he wasn't sure he was going to be able to secure enough gas to keep his pumps open after Ike, and after the media then ran with that story, it triggered a run on gasoline throughout the area.
If I hit my guess correctly, had gasoline buying (as opposed to actual vehicle consumption) remained normal, most area retailers would have had no issues at all. A few, like Weigel's, may have had to bag a few grades at a few locations (a not terribly unusual sight, btw) until things were flowing normally again.
However, by triggering a "panic," where absolutely everyone immediately topped off the tanks of every vehicle they own, the available inventory was rapidly depleted. As when there's a run on anything and retailers are afraid of running out, prices began to skyrocket (raise prices to lower demand - high school econ stuff).
If you're looking to hang someone off the side of a gas station sign, I'd say Bill is a more viable candidate than Big Jim. And I like Bill, btw. I think he just went and stuck his foot in his mouth.
Imagine if, in the front of a predicted local snow storm (remember those?), the manager of a local Kroger's was to say, "I'm not sure we have enough bread, milk, and batteries to get us through until we can dig out of this mess and get the delivery trucks on the road again." Methinks that is what we've seen here. I'll run my car to E and beyond before I buy gas at panic induced prices.
Colonial
Colonial Pipeline stated they returned full capacity Sept. 10.
(link...)
____________________________________
"Whoever corrects a mocker invites insult; whoever rebukes a wicked man incurs abuse."
Knoxville Gas
As of Thursday night, rumors were rampant that Knoxville gas prices were going up $1.50 by the weekend. No one has a legitimate answer.
Of course this is going to make everyone go fill up before paying an extra $1.50 per gallon!
The whole situation does not pass the smell test. Jimmy Haslam has Wal-Mart like purchasing power due to the amount of gas he buys. To act like he is powerless and has to charge $4.99 is disingenous at best.
exactly!
Our prices are highest in the NATION right now. It is gouging, pure and simple. Because there is a Pilot on every corner, and they were all 4.99 over the weekend, I think they set the price for the weekend. Call your congresspeople and the dept of consumer affairs and demand an investigation.
Why?
Look, I feel for people who had to buy gas over the weekend, but no one put a gun to people's head and forced them to top off every car in the household.
I just don't get it.
Why not avoid needless car trips and wait a few days until prices inevitably go down, at least a bit?
Can any of the topper-offers explain this to me?
My motivators
As for me, Nelle, I was motivated to top off not only because prices were predicted to rise, but because some stations--especially Weigels--were already running out. I think Weigels was out of gas at six locations on Friday? I'm in the boonies, mind you, and the two gas stations closest to me, along Emory Road in Powell, are both Weigels stores.
And, like I mentioned before, I was also motivated because we have no public bus service or school bus service here (since the kids "grandfathered" into their closest school, that is).
There are many rewards in living out here, but ease of transportation isn't one of them...