Fri
Jul 24 2020
08:35 pm

Trump is going to win Tennessee and probably the election. One of those Republican dumbasses (Sethi or Hagerty) is going to win the Senate (probably Hagerty because Trump). Burchett is going get reelected to Congress. Sorry, but that's just how dumb we are as a state. Unless enough of us get our asses to the polls and vote. Not optimistic, though.

Celestial Dung's picture

Curious as to why

I'm actually a touch optimistic this election. I feel that anti-Trumpers are gaining unity in the "Oh hell no, not him again" way of thinking. I've even some people who were definitely against Clinton post how a vote for a third party is a vote for Trump. Sanders is still loved, but I don't feel that it still a case of him or nobody. Especially now that we absolutely know what a Trump presidency means.

I still have two concerns. One is that Trump has a base of at least 25 percent of voters that will vote for him no matter what he does. Realistically it's more then that but I'm working on last presidential elections. What that means is no matter what crazy fascist leaning cringy thing he says or does his base will vote for him. It's a golden goose of politics and for some reason he seems to have that.

My second concern is kinda the opposite. Biden is mortal and will err. He will say something stupid and cause people to be less supportive of him. And given now that the Democratic party is undergoing a identity crisis, well he better not do or say anything stupid.

As far as polls go, eh I hope hopes but i realize it's still early. Five Thirty Eights Poll of polls shows an eight point lead for Biden which is nice but still a little too close for comfort.

(link...)

But all in all I'm hopeful. I feel like liberals, progressives, and other assorted social order rattlers took thinks for granted under Obama. I don't think we're doing that right now.

R. Neal's picture

Very good reasoning. I'm

Very good reasoning. I'm hopeful but not optimistic. Nobody thought Trump had a chance, and look what happened. Nobody thought he could be so incompetent and despicable, and look what happened. My main concern is cheating, both domestic and foreign. I'm also concerned by how many otherwise "normal" people admire him for "owning the libs" even though they don't really like him. Destroying our government seems like a steep price to pay for "winning" the argument.

Anyway, I think Trump has a 90% chance of winning Tennessee and a 50% chance of winning the election. Democrats and rational people have to vote, if they will let us which is yet to be seen.

As for TN House and Senate races, the TNGOP supermajority machine is well oiled and firing on all cylinders.
Trump worship has them revved up. The R districts are safe so likely no change in the House delegation makeup, unless Cooper gets primaried out which would be typical Democratic circular firing squad behavior. As for the Senate, we elected Marsha Blackburn. Marsha Blackburn!

And back to Trump, just when you think he can't get any worse he does. Our only hope is that enough "normal" people are finally fed up and are allowed to vote in a mostly free and fair election. And that was my main point. Now is not the time to be complacent. Nobody can afford to stay home or cast a protest third-party vote because they think Biden is safe. He's not and we're not. This is #2020. Expect the unexpected.

Celestial Dung's picture

Fair Enough

I can see Trump winning Tennessee easily, which I see as the really sad part of all this. No matter if Trump wins or looses Tennessee will be property of Crazy for a long time. Not Republicans or Conservatives, property of Crazy. My only hope is that the people just kidding out of high school are looking at their surroundings and making a concrete decision not to tolerate Crazy.

On the national scene I'm a little more optimistic. Without looking at projections or making mathematical formulas work I think Biden has a decent chance at winning if only because of the collective actions of President Trump. Shady Washington deals are beyond most people; but kids in cages, U.S. citizens being threatened by Federal armies, and the failure to be halfway decent during a health crisis? Most people can gronk that.

You know it's strange, a lot of core Trumpers think the pandemic is some plot to get him out of office. The sad part is that the pandemic could have strengthened his chances at reelection if he had just been barely competent. Seriously if had just acknowledged the severity of Corona early on, if he had just give the floor over to the health agencies, if he had just consistently worn a stinkin' mask from the very beginning theirs a huge possibility Republicans could have pointed and said "See he an't that brain dead." Instead we have this and theirs plenty of people thinking, you know maybe next time we elect someone with a working brain.

But the illegal stuff does concern me. On Facebook someone thought it was reasonable to believe that the President might just send armed forces to the polls. i an see that happening. That along with the regular batch of voter suppression is unnerving.

Honestly I think I would prefer people to be a little scared that Trump has a good chance of winning. Perhaps that's the best way to get them to vote.

R. Neal's picture

Yes to all of the above.

Yes to all of the above.

Treehouse's picture

"Trump is worse"

Every damn day.

Rachel's picture

Yes, we're screwed in

Yes, we're screwed in Tennessee. But I do think there's an excellent chance Dems will take back the Senate and Biden will win - even with all Trump's efforts to screw with the election.

BoB W.'s picture

CHIN UP!

Please - no more gloom & doom - true or not...

Mike Daugherty's picture

Watching and listening to the

Watching and listening to the mindless Republican political ads makes me embarrassed for Tennessee. Almost all the ads portray Republicans candidates trying to see who can do the best job at kissing Trump's ass. There is no debating important issues such as education or healthcare or jobs. Nope, the dumbass candidates appear holding a gun and telling viewers how Christian it is to take away healthcare benefits from tens of millions of Americans. Everything they propose and everything they stand for goes against what Jesus taught. Trump is a corrupt and evil man that is responsible for the suffering and death of thousands. It is 97 days until this unqualified and immoral man that has been the worst President in our history is defeated. I cannot wait to celebrate. The days of Trump and his mindless and corrupt cronies controlling our government will soon be over. Women are leading the way. In addition, the demographic trends are showing the end to the control of our government by white supremacists Soon white Americans will be in the minority. Latinos, blacks, Asian, and other minority groups that overwhelmingly reject Republican policies will have more influence on elections.Also, the number of people with a college education is growing
and they are supporting Democrats.I hope and pray that the ignorant and racist people that have supported Trump will finally see the light after he is defeated on Nov. 3.

Treehouse's picture

Amen.

n/t

Mike Daugherty's picture

Millions of ignorant and

Millions of ignorant and pathetic racists support our buffoon President.The sad thing is if Trump would just keep his mouth shut and listen to his advisors, he would stand a much better chance of getting some independents and some Republicans to vote for him. He is out of control. He is mentally unstable and he is a danger to all Americans.Trump ignores doctors, scientists, and other experts and praises unqualified quacks. The draft dodger is so insecure that he tries to tear down our nation's real heroes like John McCain. He refuses to wear a mask and tries to portray himself as a tough guy while in reality he is the biggest p.... in American. His irresponsible actions has caused thousands of deaths and a great deal of suffering. He is a disgrace to our country. He is a dangerous man that will do everything he can to take the country down with him. We need to lock up this corrupt and evil madman!

Mike Daugherty's picture

Millions of ignorant and

Millions of ignorant and pathetic racists support our buffoon President.The sad thing is if Trump would just keep his mouth shut and listen to his advisors, he would stand a much better chance of getting some independents and even more misguided Republicans to vote for him. He is out of control. He is mentally unstable and he is a danger to all Americans.Trump ignores doctors, scientists, and other experts and praises unqualified quacks. He refuses to wear a mask and tries to portray himself as a tough guy while in reality he is the biggest p.... in American. His irresponsible actions has caused thousands of deaths and a great deal of suffering. He is a disgrace to our country. He is a dangerous man that will do everything he can to take the country down with him. We need to lock up this corrupt and evil madman!

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