Sat
Feb 22 2020
07:41 am

NYT: Who is leading the polls (as of Feb. 13)?
Biden, Bloomberg, Buttgieg, Klobuchar (47%)
Sanders, Warren (38%)

538: Who’s ahead in the national polls (as of Feb. 22)?
Biden, Bloomberg, Buttgieg, Klobuchar (48.8%)
Sanders, Warren (37.8%)

Alex_Falk's picture

true

very “three kids standing on each other’s shoulders inside a trenchcoat” vibe coming from the folks in the media who sum the conservative candidates’ polling percentages together to demonstrate “how they are actually beating the progressives”

R. Neal's picture

They actually are. Your

They actually are. Your point?

Knoxoasis's picture

I think the point is that

I think the point is that unless a couple of the "moderates" drop out before Super Tuesday and California then it's gonna be all over, delegate-wise.

It's the same dynamic that allowed Trump to get the nomination in 2016.

R. Neal's picture

Nobody can win enough

Nobody can win enough delegates on Super Tuesday. The field will narrow March 4th and we'll see what happens after that. It could be a long night at the convention unless there's a nomination by acclimation.

R. Neal's picture

P.S. I believe Mayor Pete

P.S. I believe Mayor Pete currently leads in the delegate count.

Knoxoasis's picture

But you know that's not gonna

But you know that's not gonna last. I've thought from the beginning that he was running for VP.

The only realistic possibilities are a Bloomberg-Bernie deathmatch or a brokered convention. And the latter will get very ugly.

R. Neal's picture

I actually tend to agree on

I actually tend to agree on all that.

Alex_Falk's picture

you are afflicted with pundit brain

check people’s second choices. people are not locked into ideological lanes. voters are idiosyncratic!
sanders is the most popular politician in the country.

bizgrrl's picture

He might be the most popular

He might be the most popular democratic socialist politician in the country.

Alex_Falk's picture

correction

remove “democratic socialist” from your statement and you nailed it!

R. Neal's picture

Then why are 60% to 70% of

Then why are 60% to 70% of actual Democrats voting against him?

Alex_Falk's picture

why

why are 80-90% of actual democrats voting against vice president joe biden?

fischbobber's picture

Dan Rather's take on the race to date

It seems pretty clear that Senator Bernie Sanders will emerge from Nevada as the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He came into this race with strong name recognition. He has been well organized, and he seemingly has an unlimited line of credit for money and energy from his base of support.
All that being said, there are large blocks of the party that are not voting for him, at least not yet. Part of this is undoubtedly due to the fractured field. Part of it is ideological. How much lies in each camp we just don't know. The biggest question of the moment is whether opposition to Bernie can coalesce, and if so, behind whom. I believe that Biden, Warren, Bloomberg, Butegieg, and even Klobuchar all believe in their minds that they are the ones best suited to unify the Sanders Resistance. Yet as long as all of them are running, consolidation will be impossible. With the delegate deluge of Super Tuesday looming, can one emerge? Can they keep Sanders in their sites?
There is a lot of fear from many in the Democratic Party about what a Sanders nomination will mean in the campaign against Trump, in down ballot races, and even, if he should win, in how he would govern. I suspect many in the Republican Party are eager to face him. On the flip side, Sanders is a known quality and holds up to Trump well in many of the polls. He will say that his movement can bring new people out to the ballot boxes in large numbers, especially young voters and what he has shown to date as a surprising strength in the Latin American community.
Over all of this hangs the label of socialism. In my mind, it has strong connotations born from decades of experience that are hard to shake. I have seen socialists run in the past in the United States and have seen an electorate act in ways far different than you see in European countries. Younger voters undoubtedly see things differently, if you believe the polls. Sanders will paint his socialism as Denmark. Trump will paint it as Venezuela, or even worse, akin to communism.
Expect to see a rash of articles anticipating what Sanders will mean for the Democrats in the fall. Read the arguments, weigh them, but also remember what people thought about the strength of a Trump nomination. Most Democrats (and many Republicans) initially thought he would be easy to beat. And watch Sanders. Does he try to stick in his current lane and plow to the nomination or does he recognize the queasiness of many who desperately want rid of President Trump but view Sanders with fear or suspicion. If he is the nominee and he is to win, he will need Clinton voters, and even some potential Bloomberg voters, as well as his own. I suspect he knows that.
All I can say for certain is this nation is churning in ways unlike I have ever quite seen. We are being pushed further apart, to more polarized policies, and views of each other. It is into this vortex that the main event may be Trump vs. Sanders. Or maybe the notion of that will shake another Democratic candidate to the role of foil. We shall see. Buckle up, the future awaits.
I am eager to hear what you think, but please try to keep the conversation substantive and civil.

Alex_Falk's picture

straight talk express

“@PeteButtigieg, you clearly don’t understand the movement @BernieSanders has built. It reflects the true values + hope of working people in America. They simply want a country that puts working people first. Your critique tonight speaks for the American elite, not the majority“

“And hey @PeteButtigieg, try to not be so smug when you just got your ass kicked. You know how we form a winning coalition to beat Trump? With a true multi-racial coalition of working Americans: something @BernieSanders has proven he can do + you haven’t. Dude, show some humility“

-NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio

Alex_Falk's picture

primary turnout up 2020 vs 2016

texas-- early voting dem primary turnout up 67%

knox county-- early voting dem primary turnout up 68%

Treehouse's picture

Great!

n/t

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