Mon
Sep 29 2008
02:37 pm
By: R. Neal
Bailout deal fails House vote.
Bizgrrl, watching Treasury Sec. Paulson on 60 Minutes last night: "They ought to take away that guy's passport."
Thomas Friedman on CNN yesterday (assuming at the time there would be a deal which he says is necessary): "There are people who would have gone to the ATM machine and not gotten money out. And they would have lost their jobs." Does this guy ever pass up an opportunity to advance the Bush administration's fear tactics?
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Not a surprise...
I'm sure legislators have been getting a lot of angry calls in an election year...
I am tired of repubs on local blogs trying to blame this on democrats..on Jimmy Carter of all people, on Bill Clinton, Barney Frank and others...finding it easy to forget they controlled the White House and Congress for most of the last 8 years...it's typical repub lies and hypocracy...
The negotiators will sit down and come up with some alternative that is not as big or as dynamic and pass it barely and that will be that...
95 Dem's voted against this
95 Dem's voted against this bill. 143 Rep's voted against this bill. Neither Bush and more importantly Pelosi, could deliver the goods. What this mess shows is what is going on DC? A President should never come out with a panic package until he first locks up support with it and NO Speaker should ever take this to the House floor without already knowing how members will vote ahead of time.
There needs to be a bailout but perhaps everyone should slow down for a bit. Main Street is in much better shape that 1929, the FDIC is still working well, and if oil and commodities tank, that will spread in ways that will benefit consumers/taxpayers. No one wants a frozen lockup of the markets but maybe now is the time for some of that unique capitalist feature that actually does work: creative destruction.
The members in the House who bolted showed that in a democratic republic what counts are the People. Ideology may have played a part of it, their election concerns a part of it, but the rush to expand the size and power of the federal government was maybe too fast. Those 95 Dem's showed that they are not loyal to Pelosi, to Obama, or anyone but perhaps their constituents.
This is a historical moment though in that a sitting Republican President is working with a Democratic Congress and a coalition of Dem's and GOP in the House have spoken louder than any of them or rants from Wall Street. It sends a message that the People come first, at least for a brief moment, and that the People will be heard or the market be damned. We should all be proud that we are seeing a true American moment before us and within a day or so there will be a rescue package finalized that will pass muster.
What is most important in this crisis is that all Americans need to listen to Fed Chairman Bernake as his PhD is in economics and his field of study the Great Depression. Thus, whatever the political mouth's may say, he is one that has something worth listening to alright.
The Dems Backed Off...
... when it became evident that the GOP wouldn't deliver their votes. Pelosi and crowd said repeatedly they would vote for it as long as a majority of Republicans would join them. It was the House Republicans that started tearing the deal apart Sunday.
The deal was thought to have been patched up, until the House Repubs got "their feelings hurt."
Crybabies.
But I'm thinking it's a good thing- the country will go through a hard time, but will emerge stronger from it, with a strong sense of mistrust of Wall Street, manipulators, hedge fund managers, and a recognition that the free market isn't the panacea that conservatives claim it is.
Americans now have something to rally around, across party lines, and form a community again. And we'll come up with a solution that will be better, in the long run, than the giveaway/theft idea Bernake/Paulson came up with.
The free market is not the
The free market is not the problem and when a Fed Chairman, with a PhD in economics and his field of study on the Great Depression speaks, we all better listen to him. Now it may be that a new plan or revised one will work better but this issue before America today has as many on each side of the aisle to blame as anything. What is critical now is that a solution is found, leadership is found, and action taken to address it instead of how a great many populist mouth's want to see us all suffer.
Speaker Pelosi showed today that she is and always will be an airhead with no idea of what she is doing as Speaker. Representative Frank, who I do not care for, is attempting to do the right thing as is Rep Boehner but no one is listening to either of them because of that worthless excuse for a politician named Pelosi. Bush cannot deliver the GOP and one has to ask why that 95 Dem's are willing to buck their airhead leader and most of all why that they would buck Obama on it? This story is so much more than the typical rants from each aisle here people.
What this scene before us shows is that the election is playing a central role in this mess and no one knows how anyone will vote come November 4. Still, while I think that a rescue package is needed because I put way more stock into what Bernake says than a worthless politician, I think a good thing happened today. It did because it showed that those 95 Dem's and 143 Republicans may have been thinking about more than just the vote. In fact, that coalition is the true story here and perhaps they will use their power wisely this week and get a bill through that works.
Oh where to start?
That PhD and dissertation of an event 70 years ago in a completely different regulatory environment is pretty useless when the market is ruled by a giant credit default swap market, derivatives, and open to manipulation by rogue traders like Jerome Kerviel. His solution is to allow firms to sell off their crap to the taxpayers and keep the solid assets? When Countrywide tanked, he did what? NOTHING.
I'd respond to your comments about Pelosi, but you said nothing substantial. Wow. "Airhead." What sharp, insightful analysis you offer. I'm so impressed. Was she taking an opportunity to make a political point? Yes, and in the absence of any other partisan action, I would say her speech was wrong. However, as I said, the RWM had spent a week beating the drums of "this is all the Democrat's fault", so I don't blame her for speaking up. It was certainly no reason for the GOP to drop out of the deal (and it wasn't the real reason anyway).
If the House GOP really can't swallow the idea of a 'bailout' let's start talking about some other ideas put forth by other more independent economists that don't have a stake in or previously worked for the same brokerage firms that got us into this mess?
- Allow the Fed to take into conservatorship any bank with capitalization > $20b and that is undercapitalized, liquidate firms that are insolvent, and return the others out of conservatorship when and if they can meet capitalization requirements.
- A new entity, like the RTC, to manage the mortgage securities of those institutions under conservatorship, aimed at reworking the mortgages (and working with the homeowners) so they generate positive cash flow and become an asset again, not a liability.
-Restore R&D and energy development tax credits to create new markets, domestic jobs, and products. This is a much more targeted approach than across-the-board tax cuts, which just pumped money into a housing bubble. There are still people with cash, they just have no where to put it right now.
Earth to Nobody! It wasn't
Earth to Nobody! It wasn't the Democrats bill. It was the President's bill, and his OWN PARTY wouldn't support him. Why is Pelosi more important when the authorship of the bill rests with the White House? 95 Dems knew it was a crappy bill, but put their country ahead of personal advantage. Unlike the President's own party, who were only worried about their next election, and not the economic crisis.
Exactly So
I'd say rather than blaming Pelosi that the blame rests on "my tan is always fake" Boner.
After all, isn't he the one responsible for pushing GOP bills through the House with his GOP cronies? How is that Pelosi's fault?
Not that I liked the stinking Bush bill, I didn't, but some right wing radio hosts are making up talking points that cast stones at the wrong targets and their dittos repeat, rinse.
Let's take care of the people needing mortgage help and let Wall Street take care of it's "get government out of our business" de-regulated self. After all, those "Masters of the Universe" are surely smart enough to turn sh*t into gold, would you think?
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson
here's my take: If Paulson,
here's my take: If Paulson, Bernanke, Bush, etc felt this was critical to pass to stabilize the markets, they should have taken this to the American people and explained it to us in grown up terms. They did a crappy job selling this poison pill.
Instead, they went the supersecret route of "things'll be really bad...give us what we want, and don't ask any questions."
All this populist rhetoric defending the US taxpayers against the evil Wall Street robber barons may just turn around and bite us in the behind. Whether it's a bailout or not, we need the credit markets stabilized.
we need the credit markets
we need the credit markets stabilized.
Isn't that the Federal Reserve's job? Guess the Treasury needs to get to printing money or selling war bonds or something.
Or here's a crazy idea. Lift the limit on Savings Bond purchases.
I heard T-bills went for zero discount last week, and negative discount the week before. Sounds like people are looking for a safe place to put their money.
oh man. someone was crowing
oh man. someone was crowing about McCain's ability to get this done this morning:
""[T]his bill would not have been agreed to had it not been for John McCain. ... But, you know, this is a bipartisan accomplishment, a bipartisan success. And if people want to get something done in Washington, they just watch John McCain." — Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, 9/29/08
AND
"But here are the facts, and I’m not overselling anything. The fact is that the House Republicans were not in the mix at all. John didn’t phone this one in. He came and actually did something. ... You can’t phone something like this in. Thank God John came back." — Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), 9/28/08
(h/t thinkprogress.)
memo to McCain campaign. Watch John McCain. Seems like he just missed a few rungs on that there leadership ladder (while brazenly politicizing a crisis.)
How much ammo does the Fed
How much ammo does the Fed have left? Today it injected over $300 billion of liquidity into central banks. That has a scent of desperation to me.
Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.
If Paulson, Bernanke, Bush,
If Paulson, Bernanke, Bush, etc felt this was critical to pass to stabilize the markets, they should have taken this to the American people and explained it to us in grown up terms. They did a crappy job selling this poison pill.
You're giving way too much credit to the American people.
After years of being led by slogans and sound-bites, they are unable, or unwilling, to comprehend what exactly is at stake: their retirements, their home values, their credit lines.
Bush tried to get this passed now in order to help Republicans in November. Once the financial cards start falling, they will almost impossible to stop.
The Republicans have been holding on for dear life since 2006. Once again they have chosen politics over the country. I guess they believe that they can win votes in November by blaming "liberals" for this crisis, but this will wind up hurting the Republicans. The hard core will continue to believe, but that is all.
When people can't get car loans, student loans, and business loans, I wonder how many Republicans will continue to say "let the markets fix it?"
Once again, a failure of metaphorical narrative
I think you can explain this crisis to the general public in a way that conveys the seriousness if you use metaphor. I started explaining to my wife the effects of the crisis on "commercial paper".
(link...)
She said- "Oh, its like renal failure. If you let it go just a little while, it really f-ks up the system."
It might not make sense to non-medical people, but its better than "Give us your money to stop the end of the world." Maybe a leaky roof metaphor would work for the rest of us? Let it go and all your stuff gets ruined.
Having said all that, I'm not sure I'm so sad about the bailout failing. There are plenty of economists who have been suggesting other ways to deal with this that don't require hundreds of billions and don't incur the moral hazard that this package seems to.
And somebody needs to shut McCain up. Blaming this on the Dems and Obama just makes him look more crazy and erratic, especially when everyone knows it was primarily the GOP rank and file objecting.
-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)
"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin
Oh, but haven't you guys
Oh, but haven't you guys heard? It's all Nancy Pelosi's fault. Her speech hurt the Rs feelings and made them change their votes.
Here's Barney talking about THAT.
--This is a legitimate
--This is a legitimate crisis, apart from "scare tactics" or the election calendar.
--Paulson and Bernanke are running the show from the White House side--Bush has mailed it in, or doesn't even understand the problem.
--Congress is engaging in arguing over what water pressure to use in the hose while the house is burning down.
--I've seen very little leadership from any front in Washington. Paulson's actions may be heavy handed and politically unsavvy, but, according to my sources, the guy is scared to death of what could be coming down the pike if we don't do something drastic.
Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.
Yep, there's a crisis. Or at
Yep, there's a crisis. Or at least there is definitely one now that the fear mongers have fanned the flames.
The proposed solution was virtually 100% opposed.
The question now is, what's plan B and who's going to bring it?
They changed their votes
They changed their votes because they are trying, via some bizarre logic, to get a guy they hate elected.
I disagree. They're worried about their own skins. And all those calls they got in their offices. And they think it's 1998 and not 2008. Of course a lot of them may not have real opposition in November, so they're not worrying about the current crisis. Like Duncan, they're in no matter what.
As someone said when Howard Baker, Jr. was in office, "conservatives can't get you elected to anything, but they can beat you."
the guy is scared to death of what could be coming down the pike if we don't do something drastic.
I've believed since this began that it was preemptive. The sub-prime is a small part of it. The real issue will be the interest-only mortgages and other creative mortgage variations. That and how almost everybody and everything runs on credit in this country, we could very well be in a Depression like recession.
What I find most frustrating is both sides propelling the "taxpayer" to sainthood.
The "taxpayer" wants all the government services and national defense, but doesn't want to pay for any of it. Things can't continue to work that way.
One thing that may have
One thing that may have happened is that the Bush administration has succeeded in abstracting the problem so much with fear tactics and smoke and mirrors that it created in effect a "derivative" public opinion similar to the derivatives that are part of the problem.
The only thing concrete was the $700 billion blank check, a figure they admit pulling out of thin air. They haven't explained in terms people, or Congress, can understand, what the plan does, specifically what they are going to buy with the money i.e. name names of the companies who would participate (presumably they are the ones on the no-short list?) and specifically what assets they would be asking taxpayers to take off their books, and specifically how this magic bullet fixes the problem going forward and prevents it from happening again.
It was a Hail Mary on first and ten.
They haven't explained in
They haven't explained in terms people, or Congress, can understand, what the plan does
I'm not sure they have even explained why the plan exists. Why are all these huge "banks" crapping out all at once? The mortgage crisis is old news. We knew it would take a while for the waves to reach shore, so why are they all crashing at once? What did Citigroup and BofA and JPMorgan do that put them in a position to buy the others instead of crumbling? Were they less invested in shitty paper from the start, or did they just respond better to the housing crash?
And where did a trillion dollars go without anyone noticing? I certainly don't believe the "banks forced to lend to Negroes" bullshit. How much extra value did traders glom onto mortgages while swapping all their crazy securities and derivatives? Were they collapsing 30-year payoffs into single transactions? Don't they read The Economist, which has been warning of the housing bubble bursting and the dollar dropping since before the crooks were given four extra years of theiving. It just don't make sense.
They haven't explained in
They haven't explained in terms people, or Congress, can understand, what the plan does, specifically what they are going to buy with the money i.e. name names of the companies who would participate (presumably they are the ones on the no-short list?) and specifically what assets they would be asking taxpayers to take off their books, and specifically how this magic bullet fixes the problem going forward and prevents it from happening again.
They haven't explained, because they themselves don't really know.
The $700 billion was a guestimate, and their objective was to send a message.
Guidelines and rules can be made, but until things start happening, they really won't have an idea of what's needed. This is all new territory. Which is what makes it so controversial and so dangerous.
We're not talking about building a bridge or paving the street.
Am I mistaken?
I thought that the Democrat leadership had embraced Bush's bailout plan and genuinely wanted it to pass. Some of the comments do not seem to reflect this.
I thought that the Democrat
I thought that the Democrat leadership had embraced Bush's bailout plan and genuinely wanted it to pass. Some of the comments do not seem to reflect this.
Not everyone here claims fealty to the Democrats, and the ones who do will still criticize the party, or at least members of it.
Back to the subject at hand, is the problem here that these huge "banks" ended up insuring their own assets? The massive pool of capital behind real estate, pensions and portfolios and the massive capital insuring that pool became one and the same.
That could suck the fuck out of some paper wealth. Is that what happened?
Newweek mag....
You said: "Back to the subject at hand, is the problem here that these huge "banks" ended up insuring their own assets?"
I say: Newsweek has a good article describing this insuring of risk as they called it. It gives the reader some appreciation of this house of cards.