Mon
Oct 13 2008
12:48 pm
The Future Decline of America As The Economic Capital
By: reform4

Lunching today with a friend of mine from Atlanta who keeps track of global markets and economic trends, and an interesting point was brought up.

WHERE exactly is this $840 billion+ coming from? We don't have it. We're not printing it. Nope, it's coming from China, Saudi Arabia, etc.

Now, whenever other countries have gotten in financial trouble and needed loans from the Great US of A, it's always come with certain strings attached- required changes to regulations and business environment to ensure our loans are paid back. We are VERY lucky that the countries loaning $840 billion (plus the other $470 billion a year we overspend) have not yet required us to make changes to our regulations and business practices. Note: I said "yet." That won't last forever.

One of two things will happen: (a) the loaning countries will require these changes (say, more federalization of banking, health care, certainly more regulation, and perhaps even requiring a 50% cut in defense spending to balance our budget); or (b) countries will see the USA as a shaky bet (being an unregulated "wild west" and collapsing under its own tax burden from 10 trillion dollars of debt) and stop investing in US companies, causing a long-term/permanent credit crunch for US companies.

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sugarfatpie's picture

China may have an interest

Submitted by sugarfatpie on Mon, 2008/10/13 - 1:28pm.

China may have an interest in us reducing tariffs on agricultural items and other goods.

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

lovable liberal's picture

Um, good, yummy melamine.

Submitted by lovable liberal on Tue, 2008/10/14 - 12:10pm.

Um, good, yummy melamine. Don't regulate that!

Liberty and justice for all.

My home

Hammersmith's picture

Tom Brokaw on CMSN...

Submitted by Hammersmith on Mon, 2008/10/13 - 1:36pm.

in an interview described how all summer he has been having conversations with knowledgeable money people who assured him Wall Street was healthy but that the rest of the economy was in trouble. More disturbing was that he described how some of these individuals were now being pulled into Washington to develop an attack on the current problem, individuals he described, not without irony, who heretofore were obviously clueless. I think if I were a foreign company, I might stop investing.

lovable liberal's picture

The days of financing

Submitted by lovable liberal on Tue, 2008/10/14 - 12:17pm.

The days of financing current consumption out of our equity should be over.

Right now, China is working on plans to reduce their economy's interdependency with our heedless consumption. It was their path to incredible economic growth, but it's running out of steam. The next answer is right at home for them in Asian consumer markets.

We should be working on our plans, too. Can anyone honestly say that Duhbya or McCain could possibly get a handle on this?

Liberty and justice for all.

My home

Nobody's picture

Maybe but as long as the US

Submitted by Nobody (not verified) on Tue, 2008/10/14 - 4:34pm.

Maybe but as long as the US Dollar is the standard bearer for currency in the world, we will have to wait and see. The role of the sovereign wealth money in the KSA is wholly dependent upon the oil market and once that continues to decline, their economic strength will too. China is only as successful in what it can copy since it cannot originate anything worthwhile and their need to "prove themselves" is what drives their actions to date.

reform4's picture

The Shift to Euros

Submitted by reform4 on Wed, 2008/10/15 - 10:19pm.

is already beginning. The process to change the standard currency for world trade would take a matter of years as a subtle shift, or months if markets continue to be spooked by the lack of regulation of U.S. companies and irresponsible fiscal policy on the part of our government.

I saw my first international contract this month that dictated payment based in euros, not dollars. The leading edge of the trend?

Nobody's picture

No, it is not the beginning

Submitted by Nobody (not verified) on Wed, 2008/10/15 - 11:30pm.

No, it is not the beginning and the amount of nations that are still finding refuge in Treasury notes are still a good sign of how a great deal of this mess is due to the lack of leadership and media panic done by all federal leaders, including the House Speaker. None of them have shown any leadership, from Bush to Paulson to Pelosi, to the candidates, and their panic attack has done more harm that can be explained on a blog.

sugarfatpie's picture

delusions of US grandeur

Submitted by sugarfatpie on Thu, 2008/10/16 - 9:02am.

By those standards Japan didn't originate anything either. And yet, what is the biggest car company in the world?
Toyota

Go ahead and lull yourself to sleep with delusions of US grandeur. Unless the US private sector and the government focus like a laser on creating the new technologies that will get the world out of the climate crisis, China will be the world's undisputed superpower in 20 years.

And no "Drill baby drill" is not going to cut it. Nor is nuclear power or biofuels. These are all chimera.

Electric vehicles, solar thermal power generation, wind, geothermal, tide, green building technologies. Together these technologies are a green Industrial Revolution waiting to happen.

And where are we on these fronts? Rapidly loosing out to China. China plans to generate 10% of its energy from renewables by 2010. What's our plan? Apparently its to cut investment in renewables by 78% since 1978,
(link...)

Our loftiest goal is 25% renewables by 2020. And you know how well we do at achieving our loftiest environmental goals.

Meanwhile Germany's "business as usual" goal is 25% by 2020. Its loftiest goal? 100% renewable energy by 2020.

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

Nobody's picture

You don't know much nor give

Submitted by Nobody (not verified) on Thu, 2008/10/16 - 2:04pm.

You don't know much nor give credit to America do you? What you are doing is spreading fear, same as what the Right is doing in some way or another. China a "superpower" huh? In many ways, I doubt that and do because the need for control of society does not fit well with being a superpower, i.e., the USSR. No, I think the Chinese have looked at what happened to the USSR and have taken note of it. Thus, they will be a powerhouse but not a superpower. India and/or Brazil is where the next superpower may arise but why is everyone in a panic that in some ways, the US would have to not be the world's leader in everything? There are advantages in having other powerful players in the global political arena and were the USA to engage in effective balance of power politics, America sharing the power would actually benefit her more than you know.

reform4's picture

Different kins of power

Submitted by reform4 on Thu, 2008/10/16 - 2:36pm.

I think what he was getting at is economic power- the power from which all other power springs, at least in a sustainable form.

Economically, we will get our lunch eaten, if we don't sit up and take note. Note the "if we don't." We're all giving full credit to America for its capability to even come from behind, dogged by this idiotic war, coming out of the worst presidency ever, we can still catch up.

But only if the "drill baby drill" people wake up and smell the coffee. The question is, when Obama wins with 350+ electoral votes, how far will the dead-enders dig in their heels?

Nobody's picture

Obama may win but it will

Submitted by Nobody (not verified) on Thu, 2008/10/16 - 5:47pm.

Obama may win but it will not be with a large margin. This election is going down to the wire and no one can predict it. The wide swings in the polls this late in the game, Obama's inability to close the deal, all point to a close vote-for whoever wins. The problem that Obama has is that if he wins, I do not think he understands that he will President of the USA, meaning for ALL AMERICANS. There will be "mean decisions" that he will have to make that will alienate his base and he does not seem to understand that he is not Pelosi's dog but is to be the President, who takes the Oath of Office, to protect America and her Constitution.

Obama will be a "precedent setter" being the first black President, if he wins, and as such will need to make decisions based on that and how he will be Presidential, not that of a "Democrat." I hope he grasps that fact of political life as it would be nice to see him, should he win, be concerned about being Presidential. Right now there is nothing in his life to point to as support for those of us concerned about that issue. The hatred that is coming from the Left, like with the Right, will have to stop at the WH door and this will be a very hard and difficult decision for Obama to learn. It will because he not shown anything to date that anyone can point to that is proof that he understands that he will be President for all of America.

reform4's picture

That would indeed be a nice change

Submitted by reform4 on Thu, 2008/10/16 - 9:48pm.

... from what we've suffered from for eight years.

And it would be nice if media types from the other side would give him the benefit of the doubt. And pigs might fly out of my butt.

Realistically- no matter how middle and even-handed he might try to be, the dead-enders and media types will continue to call him a terrorist, cry "he's not MY president" and fight any initiative, no matter how much it might actually help the country.

I say he should do what he thinks is right first, and not worry about trying to please his critics. Because they'll never accept him as president anyway.

sugarfatpie's picture

I agree on some points

Submitted by sugarfatpie on Mon, 2008/10/20 - 11:00am.

Having more than one superpower will be good for the world. Less opportunity for stupidity in the White-house and congress to lead to stupid actions on the world stage that suck up trillions of tax-dollars and kill millions of people. When we are no longer the world's superpower POTUS will think much harder before invading countries to settle a family score and enrich cronies.

The US as a non-superpower, or one of three (China, EU, US) WILL radically alter the global political-economy in which US corporate domination has fit hand-in-glove with the US as a military superpower.
It could lead to a general decline in US corporate power. Or it could lead to US corporations becoming even more transnational than they already are. Or we could see a shift towards globalized economic nationalism on the part of the US, as the US gov and US corporations conspire more than ever to out-compete the EU and China on the global stage.

How these changes in corporate-govt alliances will impact most US citizens is another question. To my mind fewer corporate-govt alliances could be good for the world and for "joe the plumber" here in the US. Could lead to less collusion and corruption.

But not all corporate-govt alliances are bad. Greater cooperation between the govt and entrepreneurs and inventors (be they in a corporate R&D lab or in a garage) is probably necessary if we are to get out of the climate crisis.

Now, as to what the other superpowers might get into. China is already an economic superpower, and it is hungry for resources. It is currently scouring the planet (especially Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia) for minerals, timber and agricultural commodities to support its growth. While this isn't necessarily a bad thing for poor people throughout the world, many of whom will get new jobs and see the prices of their crops go up, it probably does necessitate more vigorous global environmental protection. Higher prices for soy (resulting from China's growing demand for animal feed) means more deforestation in the Amazon (and more greenhouse gases as a result).

It should also be noted that China is way ahead of the US in its plans to reduce greenhouse gasses. Granted these are just plans, but at least they have them. We don't.

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

redmondkr's picture

China is only as successful

Submitted by redmondkr on Tue, 2008/10/14 - 5:33pm.

China is only as successful in what it can copy since it cannot originate anything worthwhile and their need to "prove themselves" is what drives their actions to date.

Except for maybe gun powder, rockets, and pasta.


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Nobody's picture

Yes and how many centuries

Submitted by Nobody (not verified) on Wed, 2008/10/15 - 11:22pm.

Yes and how many centuries ago was it when they had those original breakthroughs?

Hammersmith's picture

Read "The Man Who Loved...

Submitted by Hammersmith on Wed, 2008/10/15 - 9:37pm.

China (Jos. Needham and the Making of a Masterpiece)" by Simon Winchester, the New York Times"-bestselling author of "The Professor and the Madman" and "Krakatoa."

It is the story of the growth of a great nation, and the eccentric and adventurous scientist who defined its essence for the world. Needham was frustrated at the West's ignorance particularly of China's history of scientific and technical discovery and innovation. Many marvel at how fast the Chinese are catching up with "us." They did not have all that much catching up to do apparently.

GBA's picture

Blame the Dems for this.....that's who done it!!!!!

Submitted by GBA (not verified) on Thu, 2008/10/16 - 3:22pm.

1000% of the economic problems that we are having is 100% root in the socialist democratic party. They are to blame, TOTALLY!!!!

lovable liberal's picture

This ought to be satire, but

Submitted by lovable liberal on Sun, 2008/10/19 - 5:35pm.

This ought to be satire, but I suspect that it's real and ordinary idiocy.

Liberty and justice for all.

My home

redmondkr's picture

You had me a bit concerned

Submitted by redmondkr on Thu, 2008/10/16 - 7:20pm.

You had me a bit concerned for a while there Nobody (not verified) because, to paraphrase that greatest president (so far) of the 21st century, presidentin' is hard work.

Fortunately for Mr. Obama and the nation, should he get into a bind and need advice on presidentin' he can have his staff deliver a subpoena to SKB so they can get your IP and sort out just which of the many KV Nobodies you are.

Should you then be gracious enough to point out to him where he is off course, he could correct himself and everything would be wonderful again.

Mr. McCain appears to have already availed himself of your advice.


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