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McCain leads among suburban voters
Submitted by R. Neal on Tue, 2008/09/30 - 10:26am.
A recent National Suburban Poll conducted for The National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University by Princeton Survey Research Associates International found that McCain leads Obama 48 to 42 among suburban voters, who cite job losses, foreclosures, and energy prices among their top concerns.
Among other findings:
• McCain's strength in the suburbs comes more from affluent voters than from white working class voters considered to be one of his strengths.
• Married registered voters in the suburbs and those with children – the so-called "soccer moms and dads" – back McCain, while Obama holds an edge among unmarried suburban voters.
• McCain leads among suburban men 51 percent to 40 percent, while women in the suburbs split evenly at 45 percent for each candidate.
• More than a third feel like they are "living from paycheck to paycheck most or all of the time."
According to a press release, NCSS Executive Director Lawrence Levy said the poll highlighted the voting preferences of one of the most important blocs of voters in the nation. "Suburban voters have decided not only the victors of the last five presidential contests but control of Congress and state houses," said Mr. Levy. "These voters tend to be more ideologically moderate than the typical voter. They aren't owned by any political party and now there are more voters in suburbia than any where else in the country."
COMMENTARY: It should be noted that the poll was conducted between Sept. 15-21, just as the markets began to unravel and before the current financial crisis and the proposed bailout dominated the headlines. Do current events punctuate these findings and harden suburban voters' opinions, or does McCain's performance during the crisis have them rethinking? At any rate, it's an interesting poll.
Here's the problem: Campaigns are not about issues, they are about how people feel.
Even among well educated voters, it's true.
The economic situation has not impacted enough Americans, especially suburbanites, to make them feel.
Due to the political strategy over the last two decades, Americans are more likely to vote based on an "us versus them" mentality than they are on a fear of what the future holds, explained by market analysts and reporters for the New York Times.
Even as conditions deteriorate, until Americans start feeling a little pain, they won't start feeling any fear.
They will still be concerned with what's going on in this SEC (Southeastern Conference) rather than this SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission).
The basic problem here is that too many people don't understand the seriousness of the situation.
Americans fail to understand that they are facing the real prospect of a decade of little or no economic growth because of the bursting of a credit bubble that they helped create and that now threatens to bring down the global financial system.
Which results in this:
Politicians worry less about preventing a financial meltdown than about ideology, partisan posturing and teaching people a lesson.
So we will have to wait on this:
In the coming weeks and months, all of these people will come to understand how deep the hole really is and how we're all in it together.
But during this, how much damage will occur is anybody's guess:
They'll come to understand that the giant sucking sound they hear is of a massive deleveraging of the global economy and the global financial system as households, governments, businesses and investment funds adjust to living in a world with less debt and more inflation.
And they will come around, reluctantly, to the understanding that the only way to get out of these situations is to have governments all around the world borrow gobs of money and effectively nationalize large swaths of the financial system so it can be restructured, recapitalized, reformed and returned to private ownership once the crisis has passed and the economy has gotten back on its feet.
In the next few weeks, the center of attention here in the United States will shift from the Congress and an exhausted Treasury to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which will now have to rescue any number of failing banks, either by taking them over directly or managing their transfer into stronger hands. It will also shift back to the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which will have to step up their efforts to maintain liquidity in money markets and prevent the credit crunch from taking down hedge funds, businesses, and state and local governments.
These will, alas, be only holding actions. Restoring real stability to financial markets will require the kind of systemic approach and extraordinary government interventions that the public has refused to authorize and finance. In better times, the public might have put aside its reluctance in response to the strong and unified recommendation of political and business leaders. But it is a measure of how little trust remains in both Washington and Wall Street that voters are willing to risk a serious hit to their wealth and income rather than follow their lead. Link...
If they were smart in Washington, the proponents of the plan would go ahead and let things start happening. Let the credit freeze that has the international markets in turmoil move into the general economy. Let the damage begin to be felt by the public at large.
Bush had to have known when he made the speech last week that it could possibly finish McCain's campaign. He did it anyway. The remaining option is to let the people feel the pain, and that will most certainly cost McCain the election, but it might save the economy.
Submitted by raddevon (not verified) on Tue, 2008/09/30 - 4:25pm.
Suburbanites are far enough away from the troubles of people in urban areas that they no longer have to worry about them. They can pretend that their problems are self-inflicted and shirk any feelings of guilt for not helping them. Just my 2 cents.
Submitted by bill young on Tue, 2008/09/30 - 6:26pm.
I didnt know where to stick this so I stuck it on this thread.Hope thats ok.
1.In post WWII presidential elections '00 & '04 was the first time we had 2 close elections in a row.We are going for 3.
2.It is also true that this is the first general election since '52 that an incumbent president or vice president is not on the general election ballot.
However,what is forgotten is that President Truman was running for re election in '52 till he was defeated in the NH primary.Therefore,this is the first post WWII election that the incumbent administration has not been on ANY ballot.
3.Given those 2 points I reckon trying to give this race historical electoral perspective is bs.
4.In national politics the only place that partisanship matters is in Washington.
Case in point was the bailout bill failure.Voters seamed to agree & wanted the House to take another bite @ the apple.
However,in the aftermath,the House leadership on both sides devolved into petty partisan attacks on which caucus should have delivered the 12 votes needed for passage.I doubt it played well in Peoria.
5.Obama & McCain are very different but both want to smash the status quo.
6.Close race is all I can say & who knows whats going to happen.
Suburbanites are far enough away from the troubles of people in urban areas that they no longer have to worry about them. They can pretend that their problems are self-inflicted and shirk any feelings of guilt for not helping them.
This credit crunch, in my opinion, will likely hurt those in the suburbs more than those in urban areas.
Why?
The suburbanites have the "interest-only" mortgages, the student loans, the IRAs and money market mutual funds, car loans for SUVs that are no longer in demand, home equity loans, and a lot of installment debt.
And all those rates and terms will likely change for the worse, probably much worse.
Do current events punctuate these findings and harden suburban voters' opinions, or does McCain's performance during the crisis have them rethinking?
As Thomas Frank would say, yes.
Here's the problem: Campaigns are not about issues, they are about how people feel.
Even among well educated voters, it's true.
The economic situation has not impacted enough Americans, especially suburbanites, to make them feel.
Due to the political strategy over the last two decades, Americans are more likely to vote based on an "us versus them" mentality than they are on a fear of what the future holds, explained by market analysts and reporters for the New York Times.
Even as conditions deteriorate, until Americans start feeling a little pain, they won't start feeling any fear.
They will still be concerned with what's going on in this SEC (Southeastern Conference) rather than this SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission).
The basic problem here is that too many people don't understand the seriousness of the situation.
Americans fail to understand that they are facing the real prospect of a decade of little or no economic growth because of the bursting of a credit bubble that they helped create and that now threatens to bring down the global financial system.
Which results in this:
Politicians worry less about preventing a financial meltdown than about ideology, partisan posturing and teaching people a lesson.
So we will have to wait on this:
In the coming weeks and months, all of these people will come to understand how deep the hole really is and how we're all in it together.
But during this, how much damage will occur is anybody's guess:
They'll come to understand that the giant sucking sound they hear is of a massive deleveraging of the global economy and the global financial system as households, governments, businesses and investment funds adjust to living in a world with less debt and more inflation.
And they will come around, reluctantly, to the understanding that the only way to get out of these situations is to have governments all around the world borrow gobs of money and effectively nationalize large swaths of the financial system so it can be restructured, recapitalized, reformed and returned to private ownership once the crisis has passed and the economy has gotten back on its feet.
In the next few weeks, the center of attention here in the United States will shift from the Congress and an exhausted Treasury to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which will now have to rescue any number of failing banks, either by taking them over directly or managing their transfer into stronger hands. It will also shift back to the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which will have to step up their efforts to maintain liquidity in money markets and prevent the credit crunch from taking down hedge funds, businesses, and state and local governments.
These will, alas, be only holding actions. Restoring real stability to financial markets will require the kind of systemic approach and extraordinary government interventions that the public has refused to authorize and finance. In better times, the public might have put aside its reluctance in response to the strong and unified recommendation of political and business leaders. But it is a measure of how little trust remains in both Washington and Wall Street that voters are willing to risk a serious hit to their wealth and income rather than follow their lead.
Link...
If they were smart in Washington, the proponents of the plan would go ahead and let things start happening. Let the credit freeze that has the international markets in turmoil move into the general economy. Let the damage begin to be felt by the public at large.
Bush had to have known when he made the speech last week that it could possibly finish McCain's campaign. He did it anyway. The remaining option is to let the people feel the pain, and that will most certainly cost McCain the election, but it might save the economy.
Suburbanites are far enough away from the troubles of people in urban areas that they no longer have to worry about them. They can pretend that their problems are self-inflicted and shirk any feelings of guilt for not helping them. Just my 2 cents.
I didnt know where to stick this so I stuck it on this thread.Hope thats ok.
1.In post WWII presidential elections '00 & '04 was the first time we had 2 close elections in a row.We are going for 3.
2.It is also true that this is the first general election since '52 that an incumbent president or vice president is not on the general election ballot.
However,what is forgotten is that President Truman was running for re election in '52 till he was defeated in the NH primary.Therefore,this is the first post WWII election that the incumbent administration has not been on ANY ballot.
3.Given those 2 points I reckon trying to give this race historical electoral perspective is bs.
4.In national politics the only place that partisanship matters is in Washington.
Case in point was the bailout bill failure.Voters seamed to agree & wanted the House to take another bite @ the apple.
However,in the aftermath,the House leadership on both sides devolved into petty partisan attacks on which caucus should have delivered the 12 votes needed for passage.I doubt it played well in Peoria.
5.Obama & McCain are very different but both want to smash the status quo.
6.Close race is all I can say & who knows whats going to happen.
Suburbanites are far enough away from the troubles of people in urban areas that they no longer have to worry about them. They can pretend that their problems are self-inflicted and shirk any feelings of guilt for not helping them.
This credit crunch, in my opinion, will likely hurt those in the suburbs more than those in urban areas.
Why?
The suburbanites have the "interest-only" mortgages, the student loans, the IRAs and money market mutual funds, car loans for SUVs that are no longer in demand, home equity loans, and a lot of installment debt.
And all those rates and terms will likely change for the worse, probably much worse.
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