Real Clear Politics has a little better breakdown of the popular vote totals. They calculate all the different variables of "what states counts" or not. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_c...

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson

The thing I don't get is that the Obama people are free to post whatever they want in support of their candidate, or to bash Hillary all they want. Yet most of them don't. They wait for someone to say something obliquely nice about Clinton and then come sniping in comments.

Anyway, back to the point of this post, Democrats are putting up huge numbers in terms of both turnout and fundraising. I thought this was a good thing. Apparently not.

From this angle it seems like a potential Democratic blow-out in the elections while polling shows a tight race. I'm hoping this means that people who are still inclined to vote Republican aren't going to turn out in November either, but I'm sure it's more complicated than that. Primary voters tend to be more involved and politically aware than the unwashed masses who show up for the general election.

Yes, and an early win for McCain may have suppressed GOP turnout. I guess it would depend on what other local races were going on, too. I don't put much credence in the idea that it also freed up some Republicans to cross over and vote for who they wanted to run against. I'm sure it happens but I doubt it had much of an effect.

The dollars are more interesting than the vote, though. McCain didn't have to spend much money, but it seems to me like he would want to pile up as much cash as possible before the limits reset for the general election.

The two keys on money is how much is left to spend and how much can they still raise, through the campaigns, parties and interest groups. The big numbers Randy cites may mean a lot of Dems have already maxed out. Have both nominees opted out of federal matching? I think Obama said he would. Now that we know the candidates, it will be interesting to see who's motivated to give.

Republicans have not had much of a reason to turn out in months, unlike Democrats who didn't decide until last night. The Democrats did turn out a lot of voters. But, matching it against Republican turnout in a race with no contest means little to nothing.

Now, the media will focus on the two candidates, which is a different kind of scrutiny. There will also be much discussion on Veeps. I can't see Obama picking Hillbilly for various reasons, but I didn't think Obama could win the nomination. So, who knows.

And this from my inbox re. the progressive movement dividend:

TheHill.com - Left’s cash crushing right

“Conservatives are completely outmanned, outnumbered and out-financed,” said David Bossie, president of Citizens United, one of the few conservative groups that has announced plans to spend millions this fall. “We have to work harder.”

The article lists a whole slew of liberal advocacy groups and PACs with dough to spread around.

That's a pretty good description of the money wasted spent during the primaries.

The general election campaign is an entirely different race than what we just saw. I'd like to think that we can project large vote total and fundraising numbers forward into the future. But that doesn't necessarily follow.

Brian A.
I'd rather be
cycling.

1.Politics aint bean bag

If you've ever stood at poll working for a candidate
you know people get down right insulting..folks will
cuss you..so whats been posted on this blog about Obama &
Clinton doesn't suprise me at all.

And yes folks who work a poll for the first time
just cant believe a normal human being..well a bunch
of normal human beings will tell you to go fuck yourself
because you ask em to vote for candidate x or y.

There is a reason mama said dont talk politics
or religion

2.92k voted in the knox county primary
but 200,000 will vote in the november general.

So while record primary turn out is good.

There are 108,000 voters we haven't heard from
in knox county alone.

The one thing small donors produce is committed supporters. If you get someone to give $5 they will brave any storm to vote and likely tell others to vote. But, I'm not sure the math works and that many small donors can make up for a fundraising advantage with larger donors. If Dems have tapped out of a lot of $2,300 givers, it's an advantage for McCain.

I don't know where each is money-wise, but a whole lot of money was raised and spent in the Democratic primary. I'm sure more information will be forthcoming. Inquiring minds will want to know.

From the Open Secrets link in the original post, thru April...

McCain had $23,988,473 on hand, with debt of $968,301.

Obama had $46,555,057 on hand, with debt of $2,037,801.

Clinton had $29,666,453 on hand, with debt of $19,480,893.

It is estimated that the general election campaigns will cost each candidate $500 million.

I still say with all the money raised and spent in the Democratic primary, there have to be a lot of Dems maxed out. There may be some who post on this board who fit that description. Be interesting to see if that has an impact on the general election. McCain has spent, what, 5% of his opponents over the last few months? Plus, with an identified opponent, he will now have an easier time raising money.

Geez, over a billion dollars on a single race.

CBT

Here's an interesting WSJ article on the fundraising so far:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121253407567443009.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

It says that only 240 Obama donors have maxed out.

Also:

The nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute said 23% of Sen. McCain's donors gave in increments of $200 or less, and 40% gave in one lump sum of $2,300.

...

Sen. Obama has raised 47% of his money in increments of $200 or less per donation. Nineteen percent of his money has come from people who gave $2,300 at one time, the institute says.

Well, I'm going to try this again. RufusKitty just came through and wiped out what I'd written before. So much for my beautiful prose.

First, thanks Randy for giving us these primary voter numbers and the campaign fund snapshots.

Hayduke, I think part of the polls vs. turnout question is answered by the fact that an overwhelming number of young folks have gotten involved and they, for the most part, only have cell phones. For the most part, pollsters don't survey with cell phone numbers.

I think it's very clear that we can't relax. We, as Democrats, must work hard to convince folks that Obama is the better candidate and to make sure that fund raising continues at high levels and then make sure that folks get to the polls on election day.

Pam Strickland

"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be." ~Kurt Vonnegut