Thu
May 29 2008
08:39 am
Perpetual primary update
By: R. Neal

RCP:

Puerto Rico (55 delegates): Clinton 50%, Obama 37%
Montana (16 delegates): Obama 52%, Clinton 35%
South Dakota (15 delegates): Obama 46%, Clinton 34%

Raw projection:
Clinton: +38 delegates
Obama: +35 delegates
Net: Clinton +3

Final result after Tuesday:
Obama: 2,014 (52.5%)
Clinton: 1,819 (47.5%, -195)

Needed to win (today): 2026

Obama can't win it, Hillary won't end it.

Remaining undeclared superdelegates: 198

The DNC Rules Committee will meet re. FL & MI on Saturday. The goalpost will likely move, to either 2118 or 2210, depending on the decision.

Assuming the most likely outcome (DNC seats half the delegates or gives each 1/2 vote):

Clinton: +56.5 (FL), +40 (MI)
Obama: +37 (FL), possibly +16.5 (MI "uncommitted")

Then the post-Tuesday projection would be:

Obama: 2,067.5
Clinton: 1,915.5 (-152)

Needed (2118):

Obama: 50.5
Clinton: 202.5

Conclusion: 51 superdelegates declaring for Obama can end it today. All of the remaining superdelegates cannot put Clinton over the top.

Hillary's last gasp comes down to 4.5 delegates.

Topics:
bill young's picture

Tuesday b it 4 primaries/caucuses

Submitted by bill young on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 9:40am.

The '08 Democratic primaries/caucuses
will end Tuesday.

Will we have nominee a week from today?

Maybe.

Obama's had a chance to KO Clinton in
NH,Ohio,Tex,Pa & Ind.Didn't happen.

But if Obama hits 2,210 it is over.

Short of that..Clinton can keep
plugging..because she could still win
a floor fight on credential's.

Sean_Braisted's picture

because she could still win

Submitted by Sean_Braisted on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 10:27am.

because she could still win a floor fight on credential's.

Not likely...Obama would have a majority of the delegates on the convention floor, and they are unlikely to break with their candidate to help Hillary. Not to mention, there would probably be more than a few Hillary delegates who actually believe rules should be followed, and would be unlikely to give the trouble-makers in Florida and Michigan a full seating...I know some Hillary supporters who don't think they should be sat at all (the type of people who join credential committees).

gonzone's picture

Agreed

Submitted by gonzone on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 1:18pm.

Not to mention, there would probably be more than a few Hillary delegates who actually believe rules should be followed,

For example, every single DNC member now working on the Hillary campaign supported/voted for the ban, 17 I think is the correct number, including the manager Ickes. Only one vote against and that was from an Obama person.

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson

Andy Axel's picture

trouble-makers in Florida

Submitted by Andy Axel on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 11:50am.

trouble-makers in Florida and Michigan

Danged voters. Always making trouble.

____________________________

"It's gettin' so a businessman can't expect no return from a fixed fight. Now, if you can't trust a fix, what can you trust?"

gonzone's picture

Not really the voters

Submitted by gonzone on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 1:24pm.

It's not the voter's fault but their Dem state party representatives who made this mess.
It is good to see so many voters turned out despite the probability of their vote not counting and that's an encouraging sign for all Dems up for election.
Also, I agree with many state reps who think Iowa and NH should not have a lock on the early primary voting but I'm not one for cutting off my nose to spite my face either.
Many attribute this to a DLC effort to discredit Howard Dean, like they did in the 2004 primaries. Power doesn't relinquish power easily or without a fight. Others see this whole primary as a battle between the old Dem party leadership (DLC etcetera) and the new leadership (NDN, Dean w/50 state strategy, etcetera) and that does sound realistic.

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson

talidapali's picture

Actually...

Submitted by talidapali on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 1:54pm.

The Florida Democrats got caught between a rock and a hard place. The Republican majority in the Florida House added the moved up primary date as a rider to a bill that had to be passed to go from electronic voting that could not be tracked to a paper ballot system that could be scanned by machine and tracked with a paper trail. If the Dems had blocked it, the Republicans would have been able to use that against the Dems that are running for state office this year. They didn't put up much of a fight in the Florida Senate either, but still...it was the Republicans in charge that created this fiasco.

I'm okay with them counting halfsies on Florida, but Michigan is a whole other matter. They do not have the same excuse as Florida Dems. Michigan should not be seated at all, they knew what the national party would do if they moved their primary, they tried it before and had to back down...this time they didn't and they should pay the price for it.

_________________________________________________
"You can't fix stupid..." ~ Ron White"
"I never said I wasn't a brat..." ~ Talidapali

rikki's picture

castration now!

Submitted by rikki on Fri, 2008/05/30 - 9:38pm.

The Republican majority in the Florida House added the moved up primary date as a rider to a bill that had to be passed to go from electronic voting that could not be tracked to a paper ballot system that could be scanned by machine and tracked with a paper trail.

Serves Democrats and Florida right for not having the sense to adopt real voting reform in the wake of the 2000 putsch. Democrats will continue to suffer for their failure to impeach Cheney for years to come, even if they win the Presidency. They had a chance to put their faith in the truth, but they chose pollsters and consultants instead.

The soul of this country lives in a political party only to the extent that a person's soul lives in an attached leech. We should keep whichever parts of Florida drain into rivers that run through Georgia or Alabama and declare the rest of the state part of Cuba and be done with them.

Brian A.'s picture

Assuming the above FL/MI

Submitted by Brian A. on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 2:11pm.

Assuming the above FL/MI compromise is reached, I'd be very surprised if Obama did not get the needed superdelegates within a week.

Then what? Will the race finally be over? Or are we going to still have to listen to "electability" hypotheticals?

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

Andy Axel's picture

are we going to still have

Submitted by Andy Axel on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 2:33pm.

are we going to still have to listen to "electability" hypotheticals?

Yes. And the mainstream press will be in front of that narrative, only they'll be making the case for McCain.

____________________________

"It's gettin' so a businessman can't expect no return from a fixed fight. Now, if you can't trust a fix, what can you trust?"

bill young's picture

Convention Jones

Submitted by bill young on Thu, 2008/05/29 - 4:51pm.

Man,I gotta Convention Jones.

Forty years ago I watched the Republican Convention
Rocky vs Ronnie vs Nixon..I was hooked.

Every four years three things meet in a confluence
on the floor of the national conventions.

1.The delegates can vote as they please.

2.The coin of the realm is what
constitutes a majority of delegates.

3.The conventions are the final arbitrator.

This confluence means one thing is certain about
conventions..nothing is certain.

Granted in the forty years I've been
studying conventions

No candidate going into the convention
with the delegate lead has
lost the nomination.

So indeed,as Sean said,it's not likely
that Sen.Clinton would win a credentials
floor fight & then the nomination.

However,in every account I have read,when
the gavel falls to open the convention

& the front runner is being challenged

The front runner is scared to death of the unforeseen.

The challenger is hoping like hell for the unforeseen.

Here in Knoxville we remember Big John Tate

Heavyweight champion of the world

Defending his title vs Mike Weaver

@ Stokely Athletics Center

Tate is ahead on EVERY scorecard..

one minute to go

In 15th & final round..

Big John is knocked out..cold.

Thats what Hillary's trying to do

KO Obama in the last minute

of the 15th & final round

I'm stocking up on beer..got Stefano's
on speed dial..reading Hunter S Thompson
to bone up on gonzo journalism.

By-Laws/Rules committee..sat
Puerto Rico..sun
Mont./S.D..tues

Sung to the tune of Cheech & Chong's

"Basketball Jones"

I gotta a convention jones...

I gotta a convention jones

Elrod's picture

RBC

Submitted by Elrod on Fri, 2008/05/30 - 12:24am.

RBC will go halfs on FL and will take the MI compromise (69-59 for Clinton) and divide it in half too. It will be 34.5-29.5 from MI and 52.5-38 (with Edwards delegates) in FL.

New magic number will be: 2118

Obama, if all goes as your prediction, will have 2081.5. He'll be 37 short of the finish line. He'll need 37 superdelegates and he'll get by June 4.

The only question will be if Hillary tries to appeal the RBC ruling. If she does, expect more superdelegates to come over and make victory impossible even at 2210.

Then she'll say she's fighting in case the superdelegates change their mind. Her dead-ender supporters will still claim she was robbed by the new kid and that she's a victim of sexism. And she'll ruin her political career forever.

Or she'll realize it's over. Finally. And she'll back the nominee and encourage her supporters to do so too.

Steve Plonk's picture

I hope, for Democrats sake,

Submitted by Steve Plonk on Fri, 2008/05/30 - 10:49am.

I hope, for Democrats sake, that all delegates from Florida and Michigan are seated and that this thing goes on to the convention and is decided there. That is what conventions are for. These weiners that want everything to be decided early are for the birds. We need a unity ticket come August and both Clinton and Obama need to be on the ticket.
However, only the convention must decide that.

Does McCain have a vice-president yet? No, they are waiting until the July convention to decide who is on the ticket with McCain. Republicans running against McCain only have nominal support. That is why everyone tries to put McCain out there as "the republican candidate". Officially, until after the conventions, there is nothing decided with either party. Clinton has her points on that. Any political junket to Iraq by either party at this point with "unofficial candidates" would be a ploy. Any count of delegates is bogus until the convention makes them official.

redmondkr's picture

I spotted this clip in some

Submitted by redmondkr on Sat, 2008/05/31 - 11:44am.

I spotted this clip in some old videotape last night, I think from 1996 when there was talk about Nancy Reagan's astrologer guiding White House decisions.


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