Sun
May 18 2008
10:32 pm
Barack Obama held a rally in Portland today, drawing 75,000. This image is from KVAL in Eugene.
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Kerry - 45k after he was
Kerry - 45k after he was named the Democratic nominee.
Obama - 75K before he was named the Democratic nominee.
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Oh, yeah. Faux newz said the high turnout was caused by a previous rock concert. okaaayyy... The Decembrists, a local band that usually plays to 500-1k rooms, did a 45 minute set before Obama took the stage.
Compare:
At the height of his popularity, Clint black did a free show in DC for the Bushies. Turnout? 4k to 11k.
HAH!
PPP poll
PPP poll has found Ore like Wis is
bucking the late Clinton surge trend.
fyi
marion county,salem
55,588 DEMOCRATIC BALLOTS mailed
27,919 DEMOCRATIC BALLOTS returned
multnomah county,portland
403,448 TOTAL BALLOTS mailed
157,634 TOTAL BALLOT returned
3pm pst
Okay, I'm getting it a
Okay, I'm getting it a little more.
What is it with people from Oregon? Is there nothing better to do? Is it the rain?
Well
The wingnuts say these folks only came for the entertainment. Something about the Decembrists being the hot. Lately though it's been harder and harder to distinguish the rhetoric of the wingnuts from that of particular campaign worker/lobbyists.
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson
Survey USA poll
Oregon May 17-18
Portland
Obama-55%
Clinton-42%
Already voted(ballot mailed in)
Obama-53%
Clinton-44%
BUT this likely voter finding
WOW..I could be WAY off on Clinton surge
& not good news for Clinton campaign.
LIKELY VOTERS(not turned in ballot)
Obama-62%
Clinton-34%
Gonna git sum beerz & order some wingz
stay up late for the Oregon primary Tuesday.
Oregon
Ballot must be recieved,by mail or be in a
ballot drop box by 8pm PST.
At this late date.If you have not
mailed-in your ballot.
Voters go to the mail-in ballot drop boxes.
The drop boxes are @ libraries & other
locations.I saw one @ a McDonalds.
As of May 17th both by mail & drop boxes
In Marion County,Salem..54,998 of 144,019 ballots
mailed had been recieved.
As of 9am PST Today..in Multnumah County,Portland.
147,148 of 403,448 ballots mailed had been recieved.
Keep in mind this is TOTAL BALLOTS mailed
Not DEMOCRATIC BALLOTS mailed.
Two things
1.If the race in Marion County is as close
as the poll indicates there are enough late
undecides to swing that county for Hillary.
2.Not seen a poll out of Portland but if Portland
doesn't go BIG TIME for Obama..could be an upset
brewing.
Clinton's late surge
Thru out this nomination battle one trend
has been evident
Clinton surges in the last few days.
Plus as I've posted before,the Oregon primary has
a history of bucking the front runner.
Combine Clinton's late surge with Oregon's history.
And you got a recipe for an upset.
Most recent poll by Sulfolk University..May 17-18
reflects a tighting race.
Both statewide & Marion County,Ore poll
done by Sulfolk University.
Statewide poll
Obama-45%
Clinton-41%
Undecided-8%
Refused-6%
Marion County poll
Home to the state capital
Salem..2nd largest city in state
Obama-44%
Clinton-42%
Undecided-8%
Refused-6%
Given the intensity of the race 8% is pretty
high undecided this late & who are those 6%
that refused voting for?
Undecided + refused = 14%
Thats a volatile electrate.
Upset??
As a Obama supporter I hope not.
But I wouldn't bet the farm on Obama winning!!
Not Really
Obama actually exceeded expectations in the polls in North Carolina and Indiana (which he'd have won but for Rush Limbaugh).
Oregon is just incredibly hard to gauge because its all mail in ballots, so last minute surges don't really mean much.
But those are white people!
And the media said Obama can't win white people. They must be lazy out there or something.