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The Oregon presidential primary has been around for nearly a century.
And has proved to be as treacherous, for front runners,late in the campaign as NH is early in the campaign.
Gene McCarthy,Frank Church & Gary Hart all upset the apple cart by defeating front runners in the late May Oregon primary.
Going into the 1964 GOP Oregon primary Rockefeller was trailing Goldwater in delegates.
According to Theodore White:
In Oregon '64
"the very hopelessness of the outlook ..charged Rockefeller's effort..with an intensity of emotion."
Rocky hammered Goldwater as being "out of the mainstream"
A tag that stuck to Goldwater like glue the rest of his life.
Futhermore,Goldwater made a fatal decision to his chances he ignored it..to campaign in California.. for the June primary.
So Rocky's theme in Oregon
VOTE ROCKEFELLER...HE CARED ENOUGH TO COME!!!! Rocky won Oregon big in '64.
Obama better be careful about going here there & everywhere.
Boasting about ending the nomination fight in Oregon.
Oregon voters have been in this primary bidness a long time.
to paraphrase that wonderful line from the beanster's brother's tapes.
"It aint nothing for Oregon to whip a man's ass for ignoring their primary."
Obama is going there because he knows a big win will cap his nomination. he is going to be our nominee, period.
Rocky,McCarthy,Church & Hart won Oregon in May
But none of em won the nomination.
In Oregon,like NH,a front runner can be up 20+ points in the polls & lose.
For example,the'76 Oregon primary
According to Jules Witcover
In April polls in Oregon
showed..Carter-32%..Church-8%
Election Day..May 25,1976
Oregon Primary results
Frank Church-35% Jimmy Carter-28% Jerry Brown-23%
We/Obama were ahead in NH
We lost
We are ahead in Oregon.
But history shows us
That Oregon will slap u silly if a front runner doesn't mind their P's & Q's.
YOU WISH!
may 14-15 obama-50% clinton-45%
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Obama is going there because he knows a big win will cap his nomination. he is going to be our nominee, period.
Rocky,McCarthy,Church & Hart won
Oregon in May
But none of em won the nomination.
In Oregon,like NH,a front runner can be
up 20+ points in the polls & lose.
For example,the'76 Oregon primary
According to Jules Witcover
In April polls in Oregon
showed..Carter-32%..Church-8%
Election Day..May 25,1976
Oregon Primary results
Frank Church-35%
Jimmy Carter-28%
Jerry Brown-23%
We/Obama were ahead in NH
We lost
We are ahead in Oregon.
But history shows us
That Oregon will slap u
silly if a front runner doesn't
mind their P's & Q's.
YOU WISH!
may 14-15
obama-50%
clinton-45%
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