Tue
Apr 22 2008
08:25 am
Pennsylvania over/under?
By: R. Neal

What do you think? My guess: Clinton by 10+.

Topics:
Brian A.'s picture

Wild guess

Submitted by Brian A. on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 10:30am.

The polls have been all over the place, so who knows?

Clinton +6%

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

bizgrrl's picture

Dunno. Hard to tell. With

Submitted by bizgrrl on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 11:27am.

Dunno. Hard to tell. With the news media bias, who knows what's really going on in Pennsylvania.

In The New York Times today:

Age is likely to play a particularly strong role in the Democratic primary Tuesday in Pennsylvania. The outmigration of young people has left the state with the second-highest proportion of people over 65 in the country, after Florida. Fifty-eight percent of registered Democrats are older than 45, a consistent dividing line in the race.

I'll go with Clinton by 8+

Rachel's picture

Crap, I have no real idea

Submitted by Rachel on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 4:06pm.

Crap, I have no real idea other than Clinton will win. Just for fun I'll say Clinton by 11.

What does the winner get?

bill young's picture

10 is the tipping point

Submitted by bill young on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 11:44am.

Nobody gives Obama any chance of winning Pa.

Including Obama.

I'm wishing somehow,someway the polls have
missed a massive turn-out on campuses & in the black wards that could give us a 1 vote win.

But wishing dont make it so.

All year Obama has surged in the polls from
2 weeks out till the last 4 days.

Obama's bittergate gaffe hit two
weeks out from Pa.& stopped him cold.

OTH,all year,in the last 4 days Clinton has surged.

Clinton has a shot @ a 10+ point win.

If she pulls that off this thing's in a full blown tizzy.

If Clinton's win is less than 10 points.

All you Clinton folks,hold on to your hat,you ain't
gonna like what you hear.

Because the media & the pro Obama folks are going
to spin it like a top to say Obama won.

For me a Clinton win is a Clinton win.

I'm wishing for an Obama upset.

But I don't think it's in the cards.

Clinton's got her must wins in Ohio,Tex
& Pa.

She's got one more must win

May 6th..Indiana.

The difference is..Obama can't afford to lose
Indiana either.

Average Guy's picture

Closer

Submitted by Average Guy on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 11:49am.

Supposedly, she is in big with the bowler/drinker crowd. Any respectable drinker knows you don’t sip a shot. That will cost her.

+3 Clinton

BTW: as someone who misses the debate over her neckline, I’m thrilled we’re back to focusing on the opinion of the beer drinker. How did Lil’ George get elected again?

bizgrrl's picture

BTW: as someone who misses

Submitted by bizgrrl on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 12:22pm.

BTW: as someone who misses the debate over her neckline, I’m thrilled we’re back to focusing on the opinion of the beer drinker. How did Lil’ George get elected again?

Yeah, I guess Pennsylvania is not a big basketball state?

Average Guy's picture

Touché

Submitted by Average Guy on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 1:22pm.

In a campaign for the highest office in the land, both are ridiculous. Maybe if Obama breaks his ankle playing basketball and Clinton needs her stomach pumped because of all her drinking, the press can follow them to the hospital where the discussion might turn to healthcare.

What am I thinking; the press knows they’ve always got angry John or wild Bill to “report” about.

Anonymously Nine's picture

Clinton +5 Too little, too

Submitted by Anonymously Nine (not verified) on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 1:49pm.

Clinton +5

Too little, too late.

Factchecker's picture

Ugh!

Submitted by Factchecker on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 12:27pm.

...the debate over her neckline, I’m thrilled we’re back to focusing on the opinion of the beer drinker. How did Lil’ George get elected again?

Nice cleavage? (Sorry for the image.)

It's hard to believe polls anymore. It's just nervous time.

CathyMcCaughan's picture

Does this hurt or help?

Submitted by CathyMcCaughan on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 1:28pm.

Does this hurt or help?

Average Guy's picture

It helps

Submitted by Average Guy on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 1:32pm.

It helps bolster Lil George’s idea of diplomacy.

RayCapps's picture

Both:

Submitted by RayCapps on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 3:07pm.

That'll hurt a little amongst the most left leaning Dems in the primaries, but most of those have already made up their minds and most of them seem to be breaking for Obama, anyway. In the general, it helps her to balance her criticism of Iraq with some tough talk on Iran.

From a policy standpoint, it's just restating a preexisting U.S. commitment to all her allies. If someone, anyone, nukes Israel, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, Australia, et al, we've long promised to respond with a nuclear attack of our own. Used to be we saved that talk for the now defunct Soviet Union, but MAD is still MAD.

From a practical standpoint, it's hardly necessary to state, much less do. Israel's possession of nuclear weapons and the systems needed to deliver them anywhere in the middle east is one of the poorest kept national secrets in world history. An Iranian launch toward Tel Aviv would immediately receive an Israeli counterstrike against Tehran and possibly even Mecca in Saudi Arabia, just in case the Ayatollahs are more concerned with sacred shrines than their own populations. Undoubtedly, the Ayatollahs have already been made fully aware of this through "unofficial channels."

Terry Troll's picture

It would really hurt...

Submitted by Terry Troll on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 5:49pm.

Obama if the question were put to him and he said much less. American voters, as a whole, 1)have a soft spot for Isreal,2) have a huge worry about anyone who would use a nuclear weapon and 3)would expect a very strong retaliation against anyone who used a WMD on Israel. This is a kind of two edged sword for Obama. If he comes off soft on a response he loses a lot of votes to McCain in Nov. (assuming) if he goes too hard he losses the left wing of the party in the primaries.
I would expect any President or wanna be to rattle that sabre loudly. Pulling it out might be a little different.
Oh yeah, Clinton +12.

Stick Thrower's picture

I predict

Submitted by Stick Thrower on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 1:32pm.

Clinton +15% of the vote, yet gains only 13 more delegates total

Carole Borges's picture

Clinton under five...

Submitted by Carole Borges on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 3:26pm.

I don't think anyone can really assess the youth vote and the huge new voters who recently registered. I think many of them will be for Obama. If Clinton goes on, she'll only hurt herself. During the last couple of weeks the spotlight has been on Obama, but the media is hungry for more meat and the reality of Hillary Clinton is beginning to smell like steak. There's the way over the top Israel/Iran nucleur bomb misstep. They are just beginning to get onto it. Also the fact that Hill and Bill are working both ends of the street to get the presidency secure and make more funny money is still out there. Barack slurs will be old and cold. Hillary will provide the new media fuel next..

Under five. I say she takes a dive.

RayCapps's picture

Rarely ever have a feel for things like this:

Submitted by RayCapps on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 4:12pm.

But I get a strong sense that Obama tripped over his own words at a critical juncture in PA, and it's going to hurt him in non-Philadelphia cities like Pittsburgh, Scranton, Allentown, and Harrisburg.. Put me down for Hillary by 56% to 44%.

Johnny Ringo's picture

I agree with the last two

Submitted by Johnny Ringo on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 7:02pm.

I agree with the last two posters - Clinton +12.

Factchecker's picture

I'll just pick something. I

Submitted by Factchecker on Tue, 2008/04/22 - 7:59pm.

I'll just pick something. I think Clinton +7 is available. That sounds good.

R. Neal's picture

Looks like Bill and I were

Submitted by R. Neal on Wed, 2008/04/23 - 9:32am.

Looks like Bill and I were spot on, with some others close to the pin.

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