There are currently 3 users and 169 guests online.
The Democrats tangled web
Submitted by bill young on Thu, 2008/03/27 - 5:02pm.
The tangled web of rules thats got the Democrats in such a pickle didnt happen over night.For years the nomination had been WON early in the contest & the status quo enveloped the rules.
Some have argued that,in '92,Bill Clinton didn't win the nomination till June.I would argue that indeed Clinton didnt get the required delegates to clinch the nomination till June BUT he WON the nomination earlier by winning the NY primary.
Thats my point.After NY Bill Clinton was winning primaries over Jerry Brown with 70 to 80% of the vote.But because of the delegate selection rules it took Clinton a month & 1/2 to go over the top.
One could ask..What if Brown had won NY? My answer..we would have been in the same pickle we are in now.However the status quo is not interested in what if.So we kept the delegate selection rules as they were.The result of that,as adanovi has pointed out,here in the 2nd district of Tn.Clinton wins 58%..Obama 40%..but tied 2-2 in delegates.In Ohio Clinton wins big but only gets a net gain of 9 delegates;In Wisconsin Obama wins big but only gets a net gain of 10 delegates.The rules make it real real hard for a candidate to make any headway.
With respect to the super delegates..the status quo figured the convention dont matter,therefore delegates dont matter..so lets make every self important tom dick & harry in the party a super delegate.
The result is there are as many super delegates as there are elected delegates from NY+Tx+Cal.So if the race is tight there are not enough elected delegates to allow a candidate to clinch the nomination without winning the super delegates.
Futhermore,in Mich & Fla,the Democratic leadership bought into the status quo.It will be over Feb 5th..get a little piece of the action by moving up our primaries contrary to party rules but it wont matter because the winner Feb 5th will seat our delegations.Both states gambled & lost betting on the status quo & right now have 0 delegates.
I've kept up with the rules over the years because I have supported candidates that have tried to blow up a front runner late in the game(Brown'76,Kennedy'80 & Hart'84)& one that turned the rules upside down & won the nomination(McGovern'72).
So I've been aware for a long time that two candidates could stalemate & the candidate with the sharpest floor organization would win the nomination.
The tangled web of the status quo has got us in a pickle thats been years in the making.
Post new comment