Looks like either Clinton, Obama, or McCain will win for sure.

"That's a pretty liberal definition of the word coming from a Republican."

Uhh, thanks for the transition to an anti-Bush rant, but the word stealing wasn't coming from me or any other Republican. That was the national media asking the question and using the word. My point remains. If HillBilly gets put over the top by the supers and Obama has more 'regular' delegates the media will be asking if she stole the nomination and it will be an ugly process for Democrats. Obama himself said it would be no different than the supers going into the smoky back room and picking the nominee.

Nixon won with 43.4%..Won Tennessee with 37.8%

we aint throwin the press out..they for Obama

By the time that conventions over

Obama's gonna be bigger than the Beatles

"When Republicans win the Presidency, they win by razor-thin margins and fraud."

Nixon '68, '72?
Reagan '80, '84?
Bush '98?

2008 is one for the Dems to lose. And by dang, it looks like they just might pull it off.

On the Today Show yesterday both Hill and Obama were asked to assume Obama had more pledged delegates in Denver and that the supers vote to give Hill the nomination. Then the question...would that in effect be 'stealing' the nomination? Both gave the answers you'd expect. If the supers choose Hill with Obama having more 'regular' delegates, we'll be hearing that word 'stealing' a lot. And in Denver, whoo boy, Howard Dean better kick out the press and lock the doors on the convention hall. It won't be pretty.

Ca-ching!

Good analysis, Bill. Some of the election rides on Iraq, but I wouldn't bet on that war improving much in the next year. Dems should keep reminding that the sole party that took us to war gives us McCain. Ditto Katrina response, Enron, Abramoff, DeLay, Afghanistan collapse, Mideast failures, lead in toys, letting NK build nukes, etc. etc.

And remember, Obama is not HHH. Just wind up Obama and let him go.

Nice points, Rikki. I agree w/ some of Russ's logic of fatalism too, but I'm a lot more optimistic about the fall this year--partly because I strongly disagree about one of the Dem candidates.

I'll tell you what is real: Obama gets people to the polls who do not normally vote. Stop talking about losing, and start calling him "the Great Communicator."

Exactly. The GOP would give its soul (if it hadn't already given what small amount it had for Duhbya the Small Minded Bully) and crap itself silly to have a candidate like Obama. He may or may not become a great president, but he is a candidate that comes along once every 1-2 generations, at best. I thought there would be no more of them, at least in my lifetime. Gore and Kerry are good men and should have made fine presidents, but they were horrible candidiates.

If the Dems as a party are as hapless as some think, they will really screw up by not realizing what they have in Obama. Even if you don't buy into him as the best president of the two candidates, and that is where I'm on the fence, he is the real deal as an inspiring leader who brings people together. (Look at the money he can raise. It's scary, but awesome and from small donors.) If it's only to vote a Dem into office, it's enough to get me on board. As for after inauguration day, history shows that all bets are off anyway as to how expectations play out. Some of the most qualified have been failures and vice versa.

Another point is that some seem to believe that the Dem supporters of whichever candidate that loses the primary will just get pissed and stay home in November. But look at the turnouts. This is as much an anti-Repug sentiment as anything. Congressional GOPers are leaving in droves and Obama and Hillary supporters continually remind, as they do around here, that they will enthusiastically support whichever candidate is on the Nov. ballot.

This is not 2000 or 2004. If we lose this time, it will be because of GOP corruption and/or our own timidness.

I'll be sending the nominee a lot of money and also to MoveOn to fight swiftboaters. (I hope to give some every month to both.) If Clinton is the nominee, however, I do have strong doubts about whether she can survive the swiftboating. The Clinton "machine" is smart, but not so wealthy or as popular as some believe.

McCain's campaign will be more like
Nixon '68..than Reagan '80

Nixon had no use for the right wing
or the silk stocking crowd
or the shrill left
or racist populism

Nixon was for the folks on main street.

This is what he told em

"We are caught in war,wanting peace..torn by divisions wanting unity..America has suffered from a fever of words;inflated rhetoric that promises more than it can deliver;angry rhetoric that fans discontent into hatreds;bombastic rhetoric that postures instead of persuading..We cannot learn from one another until we stop shouting at one another."

And if McCain tells the voters the same thing
He's going to be one tough SOB to beat

Here's a fun interactive electoral map.

Honestly, it really shouldn't be too hard for either Obama or Clinton to beat McCain. Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico... possibly Ohio, Florida, Virginia should be up for grabs depending on the candidate. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Kansas turned blue for Obama. Sadly, neither stands a chance in Tennessee.

...to protect enfranchisement.

Owning your own McDonald's is at risk?!

his candidacy would finally expose the GOP as the anti-democrats they are.

Anyone who doesn't see this already hasn't been paying attention or is in the tank.

____________________________

With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.

McCain will win.
Unfortunate for sure. But I just don't have enough faith in my fellow man to believe they will vote for a woman or black guy. If anything they will vote against them rather than for McCain. Of course when they will talk to the voters they will say it was the 'values' of the candidate that persuaded them to vote for Captain Depends. It is their values that will drive the vote as always- the values of racism or sexism in this case.

Not only do I think this is going to happen but I am willing to put up $100.00 to the charity of choice if Barrack or Hillary wins. Any takers?

My prediction is McCain will suffer an illness (real or imagined) prior to November. I shudder to think who will be presented as an alternate.

____________________________________
Less is the new More - Karrie Jacobs

There is talk that whoever wins the nomination, whether it be Obama or Clinton, the other would become the running mate. I think this would be the biggest disaster in the history of the Democratic party and the Republicans are frothing at the mouth over this ticket. Say what you want but the republicans and media are playing us as fools. I am one who picked Obama losing to McCain and I firmly believe neither Obama or Clinton have a chance. I hope to eat my words after the election but I just don't see either winning. If neither can win the nomination out right, how are they going pull enough votes to win the presidency. I'm not trying to be a party pooper, just a realist.

In all fairness though, at least Hillary could possibly pull some women voters from the republican side, but with the majority of black voters being Democrats, Obama will have a tough time pulling any republican votes. Nader will only hurt their chances that much more.

Adrift in the Sea of Humility

I'll wait to vote in this poll until someone points me to a general election electoral map scenario that shows how Hillary can win, realistically.

For example, this guy, using current polls in swing states, shows that Hillary doesn't stand a chance.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia... all leaning toward McCain right now against Hillary... yet Obama would have an edge in all of them.

Bizgrrl wins.

~Russ

Yeah, most people read right past the "realistically" part and vote their agenda. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

I predict, based on the history of these types of surveys on KnoxViews, most voters will opt for # 3.