There are currently 11 users and 276 guests online.
Texas Toast Tuesday predictions?
Submitted by R. Neal on Tue, 2008/03/04 - 9:26am.
Any predictions for today's primaries?
One observation is that everyone seems to be focused on winning states v. winning delegates. States don't matter. Delegates do. As I understand it, someone could "win" Texas by one or two points but still end up with fewer delegates because of their goofy primary plus caucus system.
I predict there will be a relatively close split of delegates in Texas and Ohio, Clinton will not pull ahead, Obama cannot mathematically win enough to put it away, so the campaigns reset for Pennsylvania tomorrow and we have six more weeks of dreary primary winter.
On the other hand, there are about 330 delegates at stake in Texas and Ohio. On the outside chance that Obama takes them two to one, I believe that would put him approx. 300 delegates ahead of Clinton and it's hard to see where she makes that up in the remaining races so she would have a tough decision to make.
Submitted by bobaubin on Tue, 2008/03/04 - 12:07pm.
If Hillary Clinton can't win both Texas and Ohio the super delegates are going to start endorsing Barack Obama. Bill Clinton was telling the truth when he said she had to win both to have a shot at the nomination. My predictions - Obama wins Texas and Vermont - Ohio and RI too close to call at this point, but I give Clinton the advantage in both and if she doesn't win one or both it would be quite an upset. Not that it really matters since she will lose TX.
Submitted by Factchecker on Tue, 2008/03/04 - 12:44pm.
I don't feel good about predictions. It's weird how large the poll swings have been back and forth the last couple days. If they were accurate, one could almost expect TX and Ohio to swing back to Obama today. And that can't be right.
I was just checking out the Slate delegate counter here. It's very interesting. Apparently it would take Clinton winning all the remaining states 58-42 to get a delegate lead, and then she'd still need 419 superdelegates.
Sounds like this is going to be a LONG battle. Hope it doesn't work against the party in November.
Submitted by Bbeanster on Tue, 2008/03/04 - 1:06pm.
I think Hillary scores narrow victories in Texas and Ohio and a bigger one in RI, but gains relatively few delegates at Obama's expense.
Obama wins Vermont.
And the fight goes on and on and on.
Submitted by Terry Troll on Tue, 2008/03/04 - 1:31pm.
I am in high dudgeon over your comments about Texas' wacky...er unique primary system. I was an election judge and precinct chair fro 8 years in the Houston area. It seems a little odd to those who are unfamiliar with it but it rewards grassroots activist on a very local level. Delegates to the county and state conventions are chosen at the precinct level. It is a world of fun and a great look at politics from the inside. Involvement at this level let me meet greats such as Jim Hightower, Molly Ivins Sissy Farenthold and Sheila Jackson Lee. It does give a real sense of involement if you just turn out at 7:00 PM.
Submitted by Average Guy on Tue, 2008/03/04 - 1:36pm.
Since emotion outweighed pragmatism as evidenced by the sidelining of Edwards, Dems are left with Clinton and Obama. After today it will be Obama, unless it's the intention of the Clinton's to bring a fractured party to the convention.
Obama will be defeated in late October by a "terrorist" attack. No one will die and there won't be any bombs. The Tennessee GOP will send out a press release stating they have a translation of Bin Laden stating western muslims should support Obama. There will be a 24 hour news cycle before the "mistake" is caught. In the interim, MSM camera crews will fan out to Palestine, Iraq and Dearborn for interviews. The coverage will cost Obama 10 points that he won't get back before the election. Even him pointing out the fact muslims liking him could be a good thing, won't overtake those ready to send out another, "See, I told you he was a bible hatin', no lapel pin wearing muslim" e-mail.
McCain wins. Which means we either get 4 more years of the Bush plan(?) - or McCain gets to do what he has been waiting 40 years to do - turn on his captors. In this case, it's the NeoCons and the far religious right. Let's hope it's the latter.
At any rate, Dems better steal themselves against the international incident that's bound to happen.
Breaking..weather may extend hrs for voting
in ohio..per a judges order.
conventional wisdom looks to have changed
was hillary must win both..
now only needs one to go on.
obama wins both...he's the nominee
yesterday was not a good day for obama
election day undecides will go hillary
enough to put her over in ohio..yes
clinton wins ohio
800k voted early in texas
obama wins early vote..wins texas
Fla/Mich
IF IF IF the dnc cant fix it & the race is still close after pa..thats going to be the
next new thing.
Dont forget if/when? fla & mich are seated the delegates needed to win moves from 2025 to 2200.
Today,except for Ver with Obama,these states
are close.
Any win anywhere for anybody would not be a suprise.
we move on to april 22 in pa.
no no no
clinton & obama will be @ bazeball games
beerz & peanuts..warm weather politics
these folks have been throwing brush back
pitches
come pa they'll be throwin chin music
Heard rumor the primaries today could put McCain over the top for delegates.
If Hillary Clinton can't win both Texas and Ohio the super delegates are going to start endorsing Barack Obama. Bill Clinton was telling the truth when he said she had to win both to have a shot at the nomination. My predictions - Obama wins Texas and Vermont - Ohio and RI too close to call at this point, but I give Clinton the advantage in both and if she doesn't win one or both it would be quite an upset. Not that it really matters since she will lose TX.
Obama's been hurt in the last few days by the NAFTA stuff. Clinton wins Ohio by a comfortable margin.
I won't try to predict Texas.
I do think Obama will be the evenual nominee.
I don't feel good about predictions. It's weird how large the poll swings have been back and forth the last couple days. If they were accurate, one could almost expect TX and Ohio to swing back to Obama today. And that can't be right.
I was just checking out the Slate delegate counter here. It's very interesting. Apparently it would take Clinton winning all the remaining states 58-42 to get a delegate lead, and then she'd still need 419 superdelegates.
Sounds like this is going to be a LONG battle. Hope it doesn't work against the party in November.
I think Hillary scores narrow victories in Texas and Ohio and a bigger one in RI, but gains relatively few delegates at Obama's expense.
Obama wins Vermont.
And the fight goes on and on and on.
I am in high dudgeon over your comments about Texas' wacky...er unique primary system. I was an election judge and precinct chair fro 8 years in the Houston area. It seems a little odd to those who are unfamiliar with it but it rewards grassroots activist on a very local level. Delegates to the county and state conventions are chosen at the precinct level. It is a world of fun and a great look at politics from the inside. Involvement at this level let me meet greats such as Jim Hightower, Molly Ivins Sissy Farenthold and Sheila Jackson Lee. It does give a real sense of involement if you just turn out at 7:00 PM.
today-370
after today-651
unpledged unpledged super delegates-355
unpledged pledged but could change super delegates-440
without fla/mich neded to win-2,025
with fla/mich needed to win-2,208
AP projected delegates..super+pledged
Obama-1,378(1187 pledged)
Clinton-1,276(1035 pledged)
today+whats left+super=1,336 still out
needed to win without fla/mich
Obama-647
Clinton-749
with fla/mich
Obama-830
Clinton-932
Dont forget..McCarthy,HHH,Kennedy,Hart & Jackson all were behind,some not real close,went to the convention.
Every time the Democratic nominee lost.
Since emotion outweighed pragmatism as evidenced by the sidelining of Edwards, Dems are left with Clinton and Obama. After today it will be Obama, unless it's the intention of the Clinton's to bring a fractured party to the convention.
Obama will be defeated in late October by a "terrorist" attack. No one will die and there won't be any bombs. The Tennessee GOP will send out a press release stating they have a translation of Bin Laden stating western muslims should support Obama. There will be a 24 hour news cycle before the "mistake" is caught. In the interim, MSM camera crews will fan out to Palestine, Iraq and Dearborn for interviews. The coverage will cost Obama 10 points that he won't get back before the election. Even him pointing out the fact muslims liking him could be a good thing, won't overtake those ready to send out another, "See, I told you he was a bible hatin', no lapel pin wearing muslim" e-mail.
McCain wins. Which means we either get 4 more years of the Bush plan(?) - or McCain gets to do what he has been waiting 40 years to do - turn on his captors. In this case, it's the NeoCons and the far religious right. Let's hope it's the latter.
At any rate, Dems better steal themselves against the international incident that's bound to happen.
Post new comment