Thu
Feb 14 2008
12:57 pm
By: R. Neal
WBIR: East Tenn's lone superdelegate will support Clinton
[Bill] Owen believes the majority of superdelegates will vote their conscience about what their constituents want and what's best for their country."Based on the vote of my district, my county, and my state, I feel comfortable being a Hillary Clinton-committed delegate," he said.
Interesting discussion about what he thinks the other Tennessee superdelegates will do.
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Actually a good precedent
Actually a good precedent for Obama in that the reason he's giving is based on the voters he's representing. The worst thing that can happen is Obama coming out ahead on elected delegates and then losing to Clinton on superdelegates. That could turn enough Democrats off of Hillary to swing the election to McCain.
there it is...
No truer words were ever spoke, my friend.
If these "Super Delegates" circumvent the Democratic process and nullify our votes, I will re-register as a fucking Repig and vote for McCain.
As much as I despise the filthy bastard, I will react that badly to having my vote tossed in the trash by some Blue Dogshit pig on a power trip.
"The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open."
why???
do you live in Tn?
you dont register in Tn per party.
indeed...
Yes, I live in TN.
Actually that fact about registration did escape me, so thanx for the reminder. It's relieving to think that I can vote against the forced candidate (if there is one) without standing on my head in GOP shit. I'll change my wording to a simple "I will push the McCockroach button" if the Democratic process is emasculated. My point was only that the reaction to the supers will be that harsh should they interfere with the majority's will.
"The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open."
Not a good answer
It's a likely reaction, but not a good one. I have a strong preference for Obama, but our rapidly eroding civil rights won't survive two McCain appointees to the Supreme Court, not to mention all the lower court appointments. Remember, Mr. "straight talk" has pledged to give us more justices like Roberts and Alito. I'd like to move forward with a new President and McCain promises us a right-wing court for the next few decades along with a 10,000 year war.
Superdelegates can switch
Remember that superdelegates can switch their vote/alligence any time they want for whatever reason they want. Mr. Owen is playing it safe (and legitamtely so) for the moment. However, if Sen. Obama continues to rack up wins and Sen. Clinton's support continues to erode the balance of superdelegates and their votes/alligence will change. So please don't get excited about all the talk (huff & puff) about superdelegates stealing/subverting the will of the people. This story is largely a media creation caused by the, for now, at least, close race between the Dem candidates and the fact that the media needs to have something to talk about and something to sound smart and insightful on.
Take Care, Be Good and don't play in the street!
SteveMule
Hype perhaps
...but we're not about to take our eye off the ball just in case. Many of those SDs are Democrats of questionable character.
MoveOn doesn't trust them and I see no reason that anyone else should either. The stakes are far too high to let even the slightest detail slip by.
The SDs must learn early that any skulduggery will be noticed and the appropriate punishment rendered.
"The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open."
This Speaks Volumes Regarding the Hillary Effort
This speaks volumes regarding the manner in which the Hillary campaign has been put togather as Bill Owen is a well connected Democratic Party loyalists, who went up in political flames years ago, losing badly to Bud Gilbert and essentially launching the political career of Timmy Burchette, Budly's campaign manager at the time.
In my opinion, Owen's political clout and ability to pull emerging, young, and active democrats to the playing field are suspect at best and perhaps that's why he's listed in the political graveyard while he's still living.
(link...)
Bill Owen never got the
Bill Owen never got the Teflon thing down
(link...)
(link...)
:)
That's a fine point. I know nothing of the guy so thanx for the link.
"The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open."
I'm an Obama supporter but
I'm an Obama supporter but this doesn't worry me at all. Bill's a good guy and I trust him to make the right decision when the time comes.
It's not like there aren't
It's not like there aren't any skeletons amongst various high-ranking people in Tennessee working for Obama.
It's starting to look like
It's starting to look like Obama won't have to worry too much about the few delegates Clinton picks up in Tennessee.
If You Want to Check in on the Super Delegates
I'd be more inclined to sit down with Randy Button or maybe Will Cheek in Nashville, probably Lincoln Davis, and get the real skinny on where the lines are drawn and how hard the wind is blowing.
The rest of this stuff is amateur hour.
Lincoln Davis at MSNBC
Meet the superdelegates - Decision '08- msnbc.com
Do the math
Guys,
If every super-delegate follows the wishes of their state or district, then the candidate who won the most pledged delegates will win the election. As it should be. So it doesn't matter whether Bill Owens supports Clinton. She did narrowly win the district he is nominally connected with as well as the state by an even larger margin. The trouble will come in if Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and a bunch of supers in areas that voted for him throw their support to Clinton.
Similarly, there might be blood if Kennedy and others in Clinton states and districts vote for Obama, and Clinton has somehow pulled ahead in pledged delegates.
Politically, there's less of a problem if one of the candidates is well ahead and a majority of the supers vote for that candidate even if their district didn't.
Note that it is looking less and less likely that Clinton will be able to pull it out. She's going to have to win Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by large margins to overcome Obama's lead and even just pull close to even with him. She really needed to contest more strongly in at least some of the smaller states that she lost by 30 and 40 points.
This is shockingly bad management by her campaign. Hilzoy had a really interesting post about the problems we are just starting to see with Clinton's campaign, if we can believe the stories that are coming out about the money management problems and strategic blunders.
I understand the factors
...concerning how these SDs operate, I just fear bribery in this case. Clinton has the money, the DLC has the depraved Democrats. It won't take much to sway one to vote against his/her constituent's wishes.
Nice, clear perspective there. Thanx. ;)
"The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open."
Dudes, I don't like the
Dudes, I don't like the super delegate thing either. But them's the rules that were in effect when this thing started. Both Hillary & Obama should play by them. If they need changing, then work toward doing it after this election cycle.
Lest you think I'm saying that because I voted for Hillary, let me also add that Florida & Michigan Dems also knew the rules and chose to break them, and got smacked for it. I don't think you rewrite the rules for them either, which would benefit Hillary.
As for supporting Obama and then voting for McCain (or supporting Hillary and then voting for McCain), that's the reason people talk about things like cults of personality.
If one supports Obama (or Hillary), one assumes you support most of their policies and approach to government. It's hard to understand how anyone who supports those policies - which differ little - could vote for McCain, whose policies are vastly different. Unless it's out of pique, which is a pretty ridiculous way of deciding who you want to be POTUS.
Nothing
Nothing, nothing is more important than ending the Two Family system of government we have now. The Bush/Clinton family Oligarchy is more dangerous in the long run than another four years of Repigs.
Having two families run things decade after decade is polarizing at best and rather un-American when you get down to it.
Also, though Obama and Hillary agree on many issues, Obama is clearly on the proper side of the most important ones. The Iraq war, privacy, the drug war, corporate influence, poverty....
Hillary fails miserably on these issues as is evident by her voting record and Bill's history (no, she won't be different than Bill)
Regardless, the Two Family thing is Democratically unsound and must stop if there's to be any kind of recognizable change.
"The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open."
BS
Nothing, nothing is more important than ending the Two Family system of government we have now.
McCain is clearly worse than Sen. Clinton on all of the issues you purport to care about.
I voted for Obama in the primary, but will gladly vote for Clinton if she's the one with the "D" after her name in November.
Did we learn nothing from the "there's no difference" BS in the 2000 election?
Nothing, nothing is more
Nothing, nothing is more important than ending the Two Family system of government we have now.
Yes, something is a lot more important. It's called the Supreme Court and the next President will likely get 3 nominees.
If you want another 50-60 years of eroding civil liberties, vote for a McCain Supreme Court.
It appears captainkona has
It appears captainkona has something else on the agenda than electing a president. There's a lot of hate.
Not only that, but it's more
Not only that, but it's more than a little over the top to go on a tirade about the way the Dems have gone about a process like this for the last 30 years. If it doesn't benefit your guy, it's by definition corrupt and subject to bribes?
Methinks some folks lost perspective on the way to the forum. Besides, it's breaking a tie, not "subverting the will of the voters." That would be not allowing folks to vote at all, monkeying with the vote count or other shenanigans, which is not remotely how this has gone.
Great response, Rachel. I'm
Great response, Rachel. I'm going to keep these arguments on a card to hand out in response to all the super delegate whiners.
Makes sense for Democratic Voters...
and probably lots of single issue voters as well (Iraq, Health Care, etc.). I'm not so sure it makes sense for the voters who tend to decide these elections (at least since '80), those "swing voters" or "Reagan Democrats" or "independents" or whatever phrase you prefer for the people who seem to have no particular allegience to either a party or an ideology.
It takes a "perfect storm" sort of scenario to conceive of a way for the Democrats to lose this election, but none of these conditions have been completely erased yet. I'll run down my thoughts on a "perfect storm" scenario. Mr. Neal, you can file all of this as opinion unsubstantiated by links or other hard data.
1. Right now, McCain is saddled with disaffected base. The more libertarian Republicans are unhappy with the runaway spending and increased government size/power that happened on an all GOP watch. The social conservative Republicans don't see McCain as one of their own. The only candidate in the running who can possibly energize that base is Hillary Clinton. Dyed in the wool Republicans hate Clintons with the same passion Democrats hate Bushes. I can't conceive of any way McCain can defeat Obama no matter how he gets the nomination.
2. Right now, those "swing" voters are extremely unhappy with the GOP. They think Iraq was a huge mistake and believe the war on terror has been sidetracked by it. However, if Hillary Clinton gets the nomination after going into the convention behind on pledged delegates, there is at least a possibility for mass defections by those independent voters who have been coming out to support Obama in droves. Many will just stay home. A few may go so far as to cross over to McCain if he manages to run a good post-convention campaign. Additionally, if Clinton takes the nomination in such a manner, this could also depress the African-American vote. They'll never go to McCain, but they may stay home.
3. The economy recovers and starts humming along again. This is the trump card people aren't talking about. A sluggish economy spells disaster for the party holding the presidency no matter what else in the world is going on. It really doesn't matter how little practical control a president has over the economy for good or bad, he and his party get the credit and absorb the blame. Nothing trumps an empty wallet. Nothing. McCain has to hope for a full recovery from the present sluggishness by no later than mid summer to have a prayer. The elder George Bush got a full economic recovery in '92, but it came too close to the election to help him any. Timing is everything here.
The summary: Within a positive economic climate, McCain has to face Hillary Clinton after she has "stolen" the nomination by securing enough superdelegates to overcome an Obama lead in pledged delegates in order to have a real chance of winning. If any piece of that puzzle fails to fall into place, I just don't see how he wins. That's my perfect storm scenario for McCain.
well said
well said raycapps
Obama has done a hell of a job of winning..big in small caucus states & as a result piled up delegates
The Obama campaign,for example,had 10 or more staffers in Idaho,ND,Utah & worked those states for a year.It's the tactical reason he has a slight delegate lead.
The NYT pledged delegate count(does not count super delegates & the projected delegates are only those "allocated proportionally based on votes")
Obama-1,095
Clinton-982
One thing about the Clintons they will fight till the last dog dies.
They fought back in Ark..they fought back in '92..they fought back from impeachment...they fought back after Iowa.
They are fighting back now.
The last poll in Wis is 47-43 Obama.Clinton may well get a expectations game win here.
The last time I said Clinton could win the expections game was the day of the NH primary..
If Obama wins Wis no matter Clinton's vote..by March 4th it will be forgotten..Ohio & Tx. 24/7.
Ohio is trending Clinton.She's got 51% or better in recent polls.
The Texas two-step delegate rules makes that tough to predict.
The narrative is this..If Clinton wins Wis..all bets are off..
if not.She must win,no matter how close, both Tx & Ohio.
I think you've hit on
I think you've hit on something here mjw...most of these supers will likely follow their districts or states, which isn't a bad thing.
An explanation for some of the Clinton stumbles could likely be Obama's unprecedented fundraising in January. I'm not sure I think her strategy of focusing on larger states was the wrong way to go, given his unexpected superiority in resources.
I've seen spreads of anywhere from 140 to 25 delegates...not sure how folks think Clinton can't make this up, since Ohio alone will seat 141. [yes, I realize Hillary won't get all of those, if she wins Ohio, but she'd make up half the most generous spread if she only wins by 51% or so.]
Do the math 2
Unfortunately, winning by 51% won't do it. If Ohio has 141 delegates, and Clinton wins 51%, she'll probably get between 71 and 75 delegates, but Obama will get the other 66 to 70. Going up by only 5 to 10 delegates won't do the trick. She needs to win about 60% and pick up a majority in most or all of the Congressional districts. She needs to split the districts that have an even number of delegates 3-1, not 2-2, so that she can get more like 90 to 100 delegates to his 40-50.
That's how Obama has been raking in the delegates. And he wouldn't have done so well if she had been able to keep his wins to 55-45 instead of 60-40 or 65-35 or worse.
The thing that makes the Clinton campaign look bad in all this, is that until January, her campaign had out-raised his, primarily because she'd been raising money longer than he had, but also because she out-raised him in at least two quarters last year. Where did all the money go? He didn't just start spending money in Idaho or Maryland when the money started pouring in in January.
She went for larger states
She went for larger states where organizing and running TV ads is an order of magnitude more expensive. Not sure what the actual dollar for dollar ratio might be, but I'd imagine you can buy many hours of television in Boise for what a 30-second spot in San Francisco might cost.
You make a fair point that many folks thought Super Tuesday would end things, and not only didn't it, but here came Obama with this mountain of cash. It would have been the end of many candidates, but unfortunately for us there'll probably be at least a few more weeks until this thing gets resolved.
Ads or bodies?
I still maintain that Obama won Idaho, Maine, and all those other states by wide margins, not because of last-minute ad buys, but because he had paid and unpaid staffers in all those states that Clinton ignored, recruiting precinct captains and wooing supporters on the retail level for months and months. Since he started this back when he and Clinton were on a more or less even footing financially, it doesn't excuse the strategic mess Clinton has made of this campaign.
Assuming that she would win the big states by a big margin was short-sighted. Instead, Obama poached delegates from New York and California, while she gave up on Illinois. I really thought that Clinton had a better organization than this, even if she was leaning on existing organizations in states where she had supporters. Granted I'm an Obama supporter, but I really thought Clinton was a better political "manager" than this.
don't panic
I have a personal preference for one of the two democratic candidates, but I am not getting my undies in a twist over which one will be on the ballot in November. Neither is a bad choice. Both are better than McCain. We need to be a unified team against McCain.
I disagree
A Clinton is a bad choice. Just like last time.
"The mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open."
BC was far from perfect.
BC was far from perfect. However, he wasn't such a horrible president.
And, no matter what any one says, HRC has a mind of her own and would be her own person as president.
Pam Strickland
"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be." ~Kurt Vonnegut
BS redux
A Clinton is a bad choice. Just like last time.
Proud Dole/Kemp voter, eh?
Or didn't you put your vote where your mouth is to jump on that glorious bandwagon?
Hey, Rachel I've been gone
Hey, Rachel I've been gone to the lousy Lady Vols game, so I didn't get back in on this thread until it had evolved way away from my point, which simply was that Bill Owen (party hack extraordinaire) kinda personifies what's wrong with this superdelegate deal. It's too late in the game to do anything about it now, but it needs to be looked at in the future.
And for Hillary's sake, and maybe for the sake of the party, Owen needs to shut his yap and stop drawing attention to himself. This has the potential to become a textbook example of the definition of entropy. Can you say "President McCain"?
But what do I know? I hate damn political parties.
John Lewis on Super Delegate voting
Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., endorsed Clinton in October 2007, but says as a super delegate he has to follow the lead of the folks in his district who voting for Obama on Super Tuesday.
(link...)
Pam Strickland
"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be." ~Kurt Vonnegut