Wed
Feb 6 2008
11:36 am
Knox County turnout
By: R. Neal

Turnout in Knox County was 92,541, a new record. Looking at the presidential primaries, there were 90,323 votes cast. The vote breaks down 42.6% Democrat (38,545) to 57.3% Republican (51,778), a strong showing for Knox County Democrats.

Previous predictions here were all over the place. First predictions from last November were:

• Greg Mackay: 70,000 (R: 40,000/57%, D: 30,000/43%)

• Bill Young: 95,000 (R: 65,000/68%, D: 30,000/32%)

• R. Neal: 95,000 (without Thompson, R: 53,000/56%, D: 42,000/44%)

• Don Daugherty: 50,000 total

Bill Young revised his prediction upward at one point to 33,000/38% for Democrats, and later revised GOP turnout down to 55,000/63%, for a total of 88,000.

I revised downward sharply based on the first few days of early voting to 47,503 total (lesson: early voting in primaries is not only unpredictable, it's probably not a good idea -- just ask Thompson and Edwards voters, plus be sure to include extra EV days in your calculations). After a few more days of early voting, I revised back upward to 61,000 with a possibility of 82,000. The Mrs. predicted 69,591.

So Bill Young and I were closest to the pin in November, with Bill Young having the closest overall projection as early voting progressed. (But he was off on the breakdown. Does this suggest big GOP crossover to the Dem primaries, and if so, are those reliable Dem votes in November?) Greg Mackay nailed the final percentages exactly with his first November projection, and I wasn't far off.

So, who's the winner, besides Knox County voters?

UPDATE: Turnout was approx. 41% based on registered voters as of Dec. 2007, as compared to 36% statewide.

UPDATE: For future reference, early voting turount of 36,719 was 39.6% (call it 40%) of the total.

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bill young's picture

the down low

Submitted by bill young on Thu, 2008/02/14 - 11:24am.

I knew turn-out would be real good given that all the polls,last year,were showing interest in the presidential primaries were way up from 4 years ago & saw no reason why Knox County would differ from the rest of the country.

Therefore,with 23,000+ voting in the '04 Democratic primary it was easy to predict 30,000.As I worked the Fort I found interest was following the national trend.Thats when I got the feeling we would break the record of 32,900 set in '72.I was no doubt pleased with 38,000+ and an added bonus...the Fort doubled turn out from '04.

The hot race for the Democratic nomination for president rolled into town with TV adds..local energy,local hq's & local media covering the action.Plus,county wide,Stookesbury & Vandergriff were in a spirted race as well as hot races in the 1st,2nd,4th & 6th county commission.All this combined for a huge turn out.

On the Republican side I felt that local Republicans never understood the power of a contested presidential primary.Thompson or no Thompson.

However,because of the Thompson campaign or in the end lack of..there was no local TV adds or local organization for any presidential candidates.That is why I went from 65,000 in November to 55,000 in Jan.R & others picked up on that in Nov.

I did predict 30,000 Republican turn-out election day because
1.contested presidential primary
2.a ton of hot county races

The chronic Republican voter was undecided both for president & in the county races & that lowers early voting turn out..a point made by Gary.A chronic voter votes..this time they voted election day.

Also a spirted non partisan school board race in the 5th district brought voters to the polls.

I always worry about things that never happen.

Last May I was feverishly e mailing Indya about the tough re election campaign she faced.

You must..if you dont all is lost...you got to have a STRONG early vote campaign..the damn primary is FEB 5th...ITS GOING TO FREAKIN SNOW ELECTION DAY.

It didnt snow & Indya ran unopposed.
What do I know?

I know this

In the end voters voting & folks showing up for your funeral.

All depends on the weather.

It was 75 & just a wonderful day

Tamara Shepherd's picture

Many local Dems voting Repub in primary?

Submitted by Tamara Shepherd on Thu, 2008/02/14 - 11:25am.

"The vote breaks down 42.6% Democrat (38,545)..."

I still suspect this % and # does not reflect all Dems voting. I feel sure many more Dems voted in the Repub primary, to impact which local candidates would emerge for the general.

Hopefully, then, we'll see an even stronger % and # in the general?

bill young's picture

38K

Submitted by bill young on Thu, 2008/02/14 - 11:35am.

Exceptions to all rules...so one can point out a democrat here or there that voted Republican

But 38K is pretty much max for our primary.

We stayed home because of the presidential primary.

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