Tue
Feb 5 2008
08:29 pm

8:00 ET... Oklahoma (MSNBC)
8:15 ET... Tennessee (MSNBC)
8:30 ET... Arkansas (MSNBC)
9:00 ET... New York, Massachusetts - so much for the Kennedy endorsement (MSNBC)
9:20 ET... New Jersey - despite the insurgent campaign for Rikki Hall (MSNBC)

Delegate count as of 9 ET: Clinton 447 (CBS)

Taking cover around 10:30... see you on the other side of this supercell.

Crunching a few of the state numbers... Obama won 9 counties of Tennessee's 95 (Davidson, Fayette, Hamilton, Hardeman, Haywood, Madison, Shelby, Van Buren, Williamson).

Some might assert that Obama would have done better if the storms hadn't hit West Tennessee so hard. Well, one: that storm sent Clinton voters home as well. Two: this ignores the fact that Clinton took victories in 66% of the counties in the state. Total of 631,680 votes cast statewide.

Hillary's average margin of victory was something like 50 points (yes, five-zero, you read that right) in counties over west *and* middle *and* east Tennessee - granted, these counties don't have as much population as the ones that Obama carried, but still, they add up. This is the rural/urban divide showing up again, and depending on the demographics of the state involved, this can really cut against your candidate. (The exit polls may highlight some of this. In general, Tennessee's population skews caucasian - certainly more so relative to neighboring states Georgia and Alabama, which Obama carried; certainly more so in rural areas of the state, which Clinton overwhelmingly carried.)

Notable: Montgomery County - home of Fort Campbell - went to Clinton. That may not amount to a referendum on the Iraq issue, but it is certainly interesting. This county also went for HFJ in the general in TN-Senate '06.

117
like
Andy Axel's picture

Olbermann had been puzzling

Olbermann had been puzzling over the TN result, but apparently that was a quick glitch - something came in about 3 minutes after an early result showed only a 2-point split between Clinton and Obama (although Clinton was still up).

____________________________

With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.

Eleanor A's picture

Interesting stuff. Dying to

Interesting stuff. Dying to see the TN actuals tomorrow AM.
____________________________

Happy holidays, y'all...

Tamara Shepherd's picture

Delegates to date, 9pm

CBS: Clinton 447 / Obama 392

Andy Axel's picture

Thanks;

Thanks; updating.

____________________________

With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.

Andy Axel's picture

Look here late tonight:

Look here late tonight: (link...)

____________________________

With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.

Justin's picture

CNN is giving her FL and

CNN is giving her FL and MI...as part of her vote count. Obama wasn't even on the ballots. I call shenanigans.

Andy Axel's picture

The DNC didn't rule on this.

The DNC didn't rule on this.

____________________________

With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.

Justin's picture

I thought they were the ones

I thought they were the ones who stripped the votes from the states?

"As expected, the Democratic National Committee has stripped Michigan of all its national convention delegates.

Michigan's Jan 15 primary violates DNC rules."

(link...)

Andy Axel's picture

They were. They're the

They were. They're the governing body over how the delegates are seated at the national convention. Ergo, they haven't ruled on HRC's appeal to have them seated.

____________________________

With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.

Justin's picture

Pretty shitty of HRC when OB

Gonna be a nasty convention...especially if Edwards doesn't tell his delegates to go one way or the other.

Tamara Shepherd's picture

Delegates to date, 10 pm

CBS: 536 Clinton / 444 Obama

metulj's picture

Pikki Rikki!

His name was duly placed. I had to stand there and flip through the old THC rolodex to remember his middle name.

True happiness is knowing you are a hypocrite. -- Ivor Cutler

Eleanor A's picture

Sort of takes the fun out of

Sort of takes the fun out of all this to have to duck and cover every half hour or so...more damn tornado warnings expected soon....

In February. This is very bad news, folks.

Tamara Shepherd's picture

Fiddledy dee

Fiddledy dee, Eleanor. So head to the bathtub/shower with a 13" TV. This is momentous!

Eleanor A's picture

;) I know, Tamara, but if

;) I know, Tamara, but if there's one thing that'll get my mind off politics on Super Tuesday, it's one of those animated TV news graphics showing a funnel cloud directly over my house. After it's already laid waste to Mempho and Jackson.

We've got another line coming through soon, seriously. At least it comes at a good time - I had planned to stay up late to watch election coverage, anyway. Although I might be enjoying it more if I weren't absolutely dog-tired.

Pam Strickland's picture

Yeah, they were just saying

Yeah, they were just saying that it's going to hit the platau before long. That means we'll be next here in the east.

I haven't had a chance to look at the storm coverage, but you're right, this is too damned early for this kinds of storms.

But it is somehow appropriate here in Knox County -- a storm to rinse out what the voters cleaned out.

And the primary numbers are, to say the very least, fantastically fascinating.

pgs

Pam Strickland

"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be." ~Kurt Vonnegut

Andy Axel's picture

Lots of Gulf moisture with a

Lots of Gulf moisture with a jet-stream cold front slamming into unseasonable warmth... ugh. It was about 74 here during the day.

____________________________

With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms.

rikki's picture

Laura in 012

It is with intestinal discomfort that I concede New Jersey and throw all my delegates to Hillary Clinton. While I would be proud to vote for the first female President, I believe she is just wrapping up her second term.

When I say that, I'm not intending to be sexist. I mean Laura is calling the shots and deserves the credit that has long eluded her. She should name one of her daughters VP from the get-go and run for President in 2012 under the slogan "Two Bush O Twelve."

I pledge all my O Twelve delegates to Laura Bush!

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