Wed
Jan 30 2008
08:49 am
Knox Co. early voting update
By: R. Neal

News reports put yesterday's Knox Co. early voting turnout at an impressive 5101, bringing the total to 21,445.

With two more days of early voting (today and tomorrow, Thursday Jan. 31st) and additional centers and extended hours and a decent weather forecast, we are revising our total primary turnout projection up sharply to 61,000, with a possibility of it going as high as 75,000 to 82,000.

Weather could be a factor on Tuesday with the forecast calling for a 40% chance of showers, but the predicted high of 62 should help.

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bill young's picture

turn out

Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 9:38am.

i'm sticking with 33,000 record turn out for democratic primary

i said 65,000 for gop but that looks like it maybe 10,000 to high

but 10-8 today & tommorrow..gop ev turn out may really start a steady increase.

i also believe there are alot of gop voters that have not made up their minds on county & presidential primary.This will decrease ev & increase election day vote.

interesting tid bit..talked to a student voter neighbor was for thompson now voting in democratic primary..but not sure for who but will vote early @ the uc

Simply Ridiculous's picture

may be coincidence

Submitted by Simply Ridiculous on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 12:56pm.

but I wonder if the 5,101 happened to be tuned in to CTV the previous night? If that dysfunctional group isn't motivation to vote, I don't know what is.

bill young's picture

turn out

Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 1:21pm.

With Edwards out does this swell the ranks of undecided Democratic primary voters? Which decreases ev & increases election day vote.

R. Neal's picture

Helped me decide.

Submitted by R. Neal on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 1:22pm.

Helped me decide.

bill young's picture

turn out

Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 1:52pm.

When you look at the knox county early voting trend..it has gone steadly up..& most believed we crossed the Rubicon in the '04 presidential general election with 60% voting early.

However,undecided voters is the one factor that can change the upward ev trend.

Therefore,with volatility in both parties presidential & county nominating contests,no one will know until 6pm election day(we will know the turn-out trend by that time)how the undecided factor played out.

That means trying to glean anything from the ev turn out..to figure out over all turn out..is pure speculation based on no facts.

R. Neal's picture

That means trying to glean

Submitted by R. Neal on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 1:54pm.

That means trying to glean anything from the ev turn out..to figure out over all turn out..is pure speculation based on no facts.

So? It's fun!

bill young's picture

BUT

Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 2:15pm.

Hit the button to soon

My point is & I was using the 60% total votes being cast early trend model until Edwards dropped out..that may not apply now because of undecided voters.

I stick by my predication of 33K record democratic primary turn out because of the huge turn out in Ia,NH,Nev & SC.

But I'm not going to factor in 60% ev /total vote..when the final ev numbers come in.

R. Neal's picture

I wasn't thinking 60% ev

Submitted by R. Neal on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 2:19pm.

I wasn't thinking 60% ev either. I went with 40% - 42%. But as you note, it's all just a wild guess. One thing, with things changing just about every day, a lot of people might wait to see how many other shoes drop before Tuesday.

bill young's picture

turn out

Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/01/30 - 2:43pm.

its been +50% for 5-8 yrs & 60% in '04 presidential.

The presidential voter is a once every 4 yr voter & as '04 showed trend toward ev.The 350 @ the UC yesterday is evidence that trend is holding.

However,it's the chronic voter thats undecided in this one.

So the question is not if but when.

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