The news of Iraqi refugees returning to Iraq from Syria is being reported as a sign of reduced violence and increased public confidence in the Iraqi security forces. There are reasons for optimism in Iraq but I am not sure that the return of the refugees is such a great sign of security success. If the mainstream media were to invest an hour or so researching this topic, they might come across the fact the Syrian government has introduced new visa rules for the Iraqis that make it impossible for them to stay in Syria. With no where to go and no ability to stay the Iraqis are simply choosing to leave before they get deported. The Syrians now require an entry visas for new comers. Those who need their stay permit renewed need to return to Iraq in order to obtain a visa to re-enter Syria.
Like everything else in Iraq, the headlines don't tell the whole story, or even the real story. If we can take a breather from celebrating the refugees' return for a second maybe we can then see the dynamics in play here and start planning for the likely, and imminent, influx of refugees to Turkey, as it is the obvious path of least resistance for Iraqi refugees from this point on.
The return of refugees in such a haste may also result in their segregation by sect for the near future as they are often unable to return to their old neighborhoods due to continued security concerns in most areas. The government of Iraq will also have to manage squatters who took over many of the abandoned homes leaving the refugees with no home to return to. This is but a few of the many refugee issues that demand our attention. Valuable time is being wasted in spinning the news and declaring the refugees' return as an indisputable sign of improved security in Iraq--Improved security in Iraq is but one element in all this. Time will tell if any improvement in security is sustainable enough to prevent more refugees from leaving Baghdad and other hot spots again.
Below is excepts from "Iraq decoded" that relate to the refugee issue (written in December of 2006):

Chapter 26. Iraqi refugees,a political gold mine

According to data from the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in 2006_, more than two million Iraqi refugees languish in neighboring countries. This illustrates the fact that the suffering of the Iraqi people extends beyond Iraq itself. Sadly, these refugees are not visible on the radar screens of the policy makers or the US public. Iraqi governmental interest in these refugees is limited to security concerns; it routinely tries to secure the cooperation of neighboring governments to extradite dissidents and insurgence elements or, at least, limit their activities abroad. The US has allowed less than 500 Iraqis to be resettled in the US as of early 2007. The Syrians issue “stay permits” to Iraqis which need to be extended every few months to avoid deportation. The neighboring Arab and Muslim countries don’t seem to care enough to include any assistance for these refugees in their national budgets. This is despite these governments’ frequent expressions of sympathy for the Iraqi people and their stated concerns about the plight of the Iraqi people.
The Syrians are to be given $9,000,000 by UNHCR in 2007 to help with the one million Iraqi refugees there. While nine million dollars may sound like a goodly sum, it amounts to support of a mere $9 per person per year. The Iraqi government cancelled all old Iraqi passports for security reasons, so these Iraqi refugees are struggling to maintain their legal status abroad. Refugees had limited success obtaining new Iraqi passports in order to be able to apply for visas and then move on to Europe or other countries. Even when they attain proper passports, these Iraqis are routinely refused travel visas. It is a life of uncertainty coupled with feelings of abandonment.
This constitutes a humanitarian as well as a social disaster for these Iraqis, mostly middle class, who had the common sense and the ability to extract their families from the daily violence of Iraq. The future and fate of these Iraqis should matter to the US administration. Vulnerable and helpless, whoever comes to their assistance and appears to care, including the US, will be recognized and thanked for years to come—within and outside Iraq. This is a situation where doing the right thing would benefit everyone.
For a smart administration, it constitutes a political goldmine, especially when it relates to the Iraqi refugees in Syria. The US would be able to openly hold public talks and communications with Syria regarding these Iraqi refugees, without having to make any policy changes towards Syria itself. Any US humanitarian assistance would be appreciated by both the Syrians and the common Iraqis. Such assistance would be seen as an act of kindness, one with no immediate ulterior motives or hidden agendas. Provided that such US efforts are public and sincerely meaningful, they would go a long way towards rehabilitating the US image in the region.
A symbolic, low-key meeting behind closed doors to express concern is not what is needed here. A full-scale US bona fide effort focusing on tangible results is what is needed. With US persuasion, the Iraqi government should be encouraged to participate in assisting its citizens in Syria. This could be accomplished by giving the Syrians free oil via its old, unused oil pipe line to
Syria. That may seem to be a waste of desperately needed money, perhaps even an aid to a hostile government, though if done properly, it can have many benefits for the US. It would obviously generate goodwill towards the Iraqi government with the primarily Sunni Iraqi refugees. It would also deter any sabotage against the oil pipeline. To damage that pipeline would be to impair Iraqi refugee assistance efforts; it would serve to assist in shifting Sunni Iraqi public sentiment towards support of more such attacks in the hostile western region of Iraq. Ideally, the Syrians will use this oil to improve care for the Iraqi refugees and would be more likely to cooperate with the Iraqi and US government on future security issues.
The resumption or eventual increase in the flow of oil from Iraq to Syria could become the first step in weaning Syria from its dependence on Iranian oil and assistance. It could help to cultivate closer ties between Syria and Iraq and its US ally. Eventually, this could have the effect of increasing US political and economic influence over Syria.
The US could also come to the aid of Iraqi refugees in Jordan. A fringe benefit of doing so would be the impression it would give the Jordanians and the Palestinians (50% of the population) living in Jordan. Such assistance would be viewed as unexpected acts of kindness, not to be forgotten.
Many of these refugees will eventually return to Iraq. As they do so, they would carry with them a positive image of the US based on their own personal experience. This could be priceless for the US when it comes to repairing its tarnished image in Iraq and maintaining US influence there.
From a humanitarian standpoint, the US should feel a moral obligation to help these refugees, especially as it was US intervention in Iraq that indirectly resulted in the positions these Iraqi families are in today. We can do the right thing and genuinely help the Iraqi refugees, knowing that, politically speaking, no good deed will go unrewarded.
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