In a head-to-head matchup between Hillary Clinton and each of the GOP candidates for President, Hillary wins comfortably. That's according to a Newsweek poll just out:
Closest to beating her is John McCain, down by 5, followed by Rudy Giuliani down by 7. Then there's Fred Thompson, the great dream candidate for the GOP. He loses to Hillary Clinton by 11 points, barely ahead of the pathetic Mitt Romney, who loses by 15.
I have a few thoughts on this:
1) Caution: It's early in the race, and voters still don't know much about Fred Thompson. A lot can change in a year and a half. But this isn't a Mike Dukakis situation, where he stood 19 points up in July 1988 before the oppo men destroyed him (and he self-destructed). Hillary has gone through everything politically. She won't self-destruct because she plays things so agonizingly safe. In other words, she won't beat herself the way Dukakis, Gore and Kerry did. She knows how to win and she plays hardball.
2) Despite the earliness of this poll, Hillary is as close to a known entity as you can get in American politics. Everybody has an opinion on her one way or another. Going negative on Hillary won't change many votes because she's weathered just about all the GOP can throw at her. For Fred Thompson to win against her, he has to offer himself as a compelling alternative, not just "I'm not Hillary." And this can't just be his image. It has be on matters of policy and vision.
3) The CW is that Hillary has an electability problem. She has none of the charisma of her husband. She has very high negatives. But in a polarized country after 8 years of George W. Bush, she might be the known alternative to Bush that people will flock to, despite her naked ambitiousness and calculated cynicism. My candidate is Barack Obama, mostly because I think he offers a compelling vision for the country different from the past. He's the first post-boomer candidate and he really speaks to my generation (20-40). But part of my support for Obama is the fear that Hillary is unelectable. This poll, if true, shows that fear to be unwarranted. I still want Obama, and I think his candidacy will help us downticket (especially in Tennessee) much better than Hillary Clinton.
Fred Thompson would not lose a head-to-head matchup with Hillary Clinton by 11 points. But if GOP voters think he'll beat Hillary by just showing up and speaking Reaganisms in his deep, Southern voice, they will be disappointed. The only surprise to me is that McCain fares better against Hillary than Giuliani. Thompson's poor showing really isn't that suprising.
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Although at first Hillary wasn't my choice, I'm changing...
Personality wise the woman has always left me cold, though she does seem to be warmer and more charming lately. I like Obama, but I don't think he is electable because his lack of experience keeps being mentioned over and over. God knows we need a true statesperson to represnt us abroad and a tough politican to stand up to all the media scrutiny all presidents must handle. In the debates Obama often seemed a bit insecure, like he wanted to say something really wise, but wasn't sure what that would be. Obama might also end up doing something that could destroy his chances when the heat gets turned up.
After trying to imagine all of the candidates in presidental situations comparable to the last few years, only Hillary seems to have both the political knowledge and the hardheadedness to be able to fill those shoes. I also remember the gratitude and awe I felt when she first started trying to get healthcare for everyone. I almost feel that alone makes me want to give her my vote--a kind of cheater's proof to those who made her sound like some kind of inept screwball. Hillary has always been the kind of Liberal idealist I like, even in college she worked to make life better for the disadvantaged. I haven't made up my mind yet, but I've been feeling more inclined to consider a Clinton/Obama ticket as one that might set the nation afire.
As far as beating the Republicans, they don't seem to have been able to find anyone that can possibly match Hillary. I think Bush has blown it for any Republican candidate. Any Democrat can probably win against the current roster.
Caution: It's early in the
Caution: It's early in the race
Which makes polls, particularly polls where most of those surveyed won't even bother to go vote, meaningless here at about 19 months from election day. But, I guess it might sell a few more mags.
Polls this early
I don't think polls this early are "meaningless" per se. After all, Fred Thompson's supporters jump on every poll showing him moving up in the GOP primary race. And rightly so. Polls are a snapshot in time. They also suffer from two sampling bias issues: the sample size produces a margin of error (some of which become genuine outliers), and the pollster has to make decisions regarding who is actually registered to vote. Then there's the cell phone user who doesn't get polled.
But again, these caveats affect ALL polls, not just the general election matchup. Neither the primary nor the general is upon us yet. Polls give us a sense of where things are right now. What this poll does show, however, is that Fred Thompson is either not well known enough due to his acting career to make a difference in the general election, or that voters will actually pick Hillary Clinton unless Fred Thompson makes a substantial case for why he should be President - something he hasn't done yet (though his supporters have tried).
The first primary is only
The first primary is only about seven months away. Polls like this influence voters in their respective parties. Everybody wants to pick a winner.
You have a good point Randy.
You have a good point Randy. "Meaningless" is an overstatement. These polls probably have some political value within political parties. The 'head to head' matchup Hillary vs. (insert name) means nothing other than I suppose convincing some Dems she's the one who can beat the Republican, whoever it might be. 'Politics' is often not reality. Given the timing and sample, the poll is not a good predictor of who Hillary can beat head to head. As for the eventual winner, I'll stick with meaningless.
Hey...Fred beats Hillary in
Hey...Fred beats Hillary in Alabama. Please let the GOP pick Fred. Please...
Did anybody else notice that the only monogamous candidate the GOP has running is the Mormon?
(We may be living through our own national version of a greek tragedy, but it sure is funny at times.)
"Soft & Safe" Fred is just another Bush-Cheney clone
I keep waiting for people to sit up and notice all of the Bush-Cheney rats jumping into the Fred Thompson life raft.
Is this the criteria for the next president?
(link...)
Lorrie Morgan is quoted as saying: "Women love a soft place to lay and a strong pair of hands to hold us.”
Okay, my hackles are up, and my stomch is making bubbling noises. Peronally, I think the girl has it all wrong. Hopefully, most of us Democratic women like a hard place for laying and soft hands to hold us--heh, heh...
If that's the criteria then maybe Republican women should vote for Hillary? She fits that description.
Now I'm curious.
What kind of warm soft physical traits are male Republicans looking for in their choice of candidates? Are they thinking...hmmm...
Guiliani is stiff as a board
McCain resembles a Pillsbury dough-boy
Romney might have enviable abs
Brownback is a leeetle too soft
Huckabee has nice dimples
Tommy Thompson might be fun to tickle
Duncan Hunter looks like a guy's guy, but then again you never know about those types