The latest Newsweek poll has George W. Bush's approval rating at 26 percent: the lowest ever for him and the lowest for anybody since Nixon at the end of his Presidency.
So I have two questions from this point, one local and one national. Locally, what is Bush's approval rating in, say, Blount County right now? If he got 68% of the vote in 2004 compared to 51% nationwide then perhaps his approval rating is 17 points higher here than nationwide: 43 percent. But I wonder if it's even lower than that, given the large recent drop among Republicans. And besides, the 17 point margin shrinks a bit as you get closer to zero...percentages and all that. My guess is a real scientific poll in Blount County would put Bush's approval rating at around 39 percent. What does that mean for the GOP here? He's the leader of the party, and local Republicans wholeheartedly embraced him in 2004. Does that give local Democrats a chance to make gains the way they did in the 2006 Blount County Commission elections? Does Bush's catastrophic approval rating hurt Tennessee's Republican Party in its attempt to retake effective control over the state senate next year (after Mike Williams's exit)? Would it have any effect on Lamar Alexander? It seems Lamar has already backed away from Bush on many issues, coming up fourth among all GOP Senators in voting against Bush this year.
Then there are the national implications. It will be virtually impossible for a Republican - any Republican - to win a general election on the heels of a Republican incumbent with such comically low approval ratings. Again, all the GOP favorites stood by Bush on substantive matters all the way through. Immigration certainly contributes to some of the recent discontent, but the pollster.com analysis links the latest plunge to the Iraq debates in Congress, not the immigration bill debate. The American people want out of Iraq, and now. None of the GOP hopefuls (sans Ron Paul) have broken with Bush on Iraq. They will all likely pay the price for that in 2008, even if the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton.
I've only lived here about a month and I've seen more W stickers here than anywhere else I've been. But most people say the number of W stickers is a mere fraction of what there were in 2004. I've also seen zero Corker stickers, but quite a few Ford, Jr. ones. Oh, and in the parking lot of Maryville High School I saw a car with an Obama '08 bumper sticker.
If the GOP brand sinks in East Tennessee, it's lost everywhere.
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Congress
Elrod,
Congressional ratings are even lower as a whole, that's Republicans and Democrats but the Democrats are in charge.
Congress
Kleinheider makes the accurate point today that low Congressional ratings are a result of institutional decay and of Democratic impatience with legislators caving to Bush on Iraq. The Congress is not one person, and it doesn't completely reflect the views of one political party. The Bush White House, on the other hand, carries enormous political baggage for the GOP as a whole.
See here:
(link...)
The Republican response to
The Republican response to this seems to be, "Well sure America doesn't like us but maybe they don't like you worse."
My response to Bush's 26% approval rating is...
How can 26% of America be that stupid?
Massive Turnover or Not?
Back to name calling those that disagree with you again I see. Although, I have to say I would probably not be included in those that approve anymore, either.
However, with the President's approval ratings at 26% and Congress's approval ratings at 14%, it seems that the public is fed up with the crap in Washington as a whole and the complete disconnect between our politicians and us.
So will there be massive turnover again in the next election? We will see. I heard a good comment once: "Everyone else's representatives need to go, but my guy is doing well." This is especially valid when it comes to pork. We see it as waste unless it comes back to us. It will be interesting to see what these numbers translate to in the elections.
I agree somewhat with Elrod's initial comment "It will be virtually impossible for a Republican - any Republican - to win a general election on the heels of a Republican incumbent with such comically low approval ratings." Except the Democrats don't help themselves by putting forward the same politicians that people don't care for much either. It should be a slam dunk for the Dems, but it doesn't look like it will turn out that way as of yet (of course there is still plenty of time).
Craig Thomas
(link...)
However, with the
However, with the President's approval ratings at 26% and Congress's approval ratings at 14%, it seems that the public is fed up with the crap in Washington as a whole and the complete disconnect between our politicians and us.
but you know... If the Republicans would side with the Democrats a little instead of the president, their approval ratings would probably climb substantially.
Adrift in the Sea of Humility
Some of the People all of the time, Craig...
The reason Congress, 49% of whom are Republicans, are at a lower approval than the President, is that Congress has the power to deal with his destruction of America and stop his prosecution of the Iraq war...But they haven't.
The reason they have not been able to Impeach President Bush is because republicans constitute 49% of Congress. it is my strong wish that the American electorate see the republicans for the Bush enablers they are.
Somebody somewhere has to stand up for the Constitution. It's up to Congress. Two more republican Senators grow a conscience and Bush is done.
Obama
Craig,
I think Obama is the one politician that can make the case for something different. Nobody else on the Democratic or Republican side can make the case for change. If Obama wins the nomination, he will win the Presidency in a landslide with coattails, despite his relative inexperience and vague positions on various substantive questions. If Hillary is the nominee, she will win but the Dems will lose downticket.