I'm sure...and Katherine Harris is ahead in the polls too.

Interesting. The bad news for Corker can be found in the "ideology" column under "moderates". And possibly in the East Tennessee column. Who would have ever guessed Ford would doing that well in East Tennessee? Not me.

I was curious to see last night's debate given that Mr. Corker is the only person running for Senate that declined to participate in the Meet the Press debate series. After watching last night's debate, it is quite evident why Mr. Corker does not want to debate on the national stage...and is therefore unworthy of my vote.
All the best,
Bill Pittman

Woke up this morning to find the poll and I was only slightly shocked. I am a huge Ford supporter, but we have to remember that the other national polls have shown this race a dead heat in almost all were within the margin of error. In this case the margin was 4.2% which means according to this poll Ford can also be ahead as much as 4% when you add and subrtact the margins from both sides. There is no doubt that this will be a close race. I personally prefer polls that sample 800 - 1000 voters. I believe this poll sampled 523. The 23% black vote for Corker is flat out laughable. No way will Mr. Corker gather that much support among African Americans. The latest Gallup poll showed Corker only gathering close to 3% of the black vote. Under 5% is all the Corker camp is figuring into thier equation.

As for the gains in East TN, I believe that Corker has the upper hand, but it is clear Ford has a good base. One higher than most democrats in the past. One very interesting fact you have to look at is the refusal on the Corker camp to debate in East TN. They know the lead they have there is being held together by a thin thread. There is no way they want the people of East TN to see the slaughter that happend last night in Chattanooga.

This is a close race and according to polls Ford had erased an anywhere from 16-25 point lead which Mr. Corker once held. This is a defenite sign that Corker has a problem. The people of TN are making thier voices heard. Ford supporters and the camp can not let up. Efforts need to be stepped up. We have come this far and it would be a shame if such a good man and campaign comes up 2% short.

WATE reported last night that the unscientific poll on their website gave Ford the victory in the debate 82% to 18% for Borg Corker.  I did not look at the numbers myself but that doesn't seem to bode well for Borg Corker.  OTOH, it now makes sense why he was reluctant to debate, especially nationally.  I can see him not wanting to show off his opponents vitality, intelligence, grasp of the issues, and ability to think on his feet.  As near as I can figure the only weapons Borg Corker had to fight those things are, he is really really rich and, Big Jim likes him. (Which I suppose makes him a viable one for one replacement for Frist.)

If the very Constitution upon which our nation is founded was not at stake, the idea of Borg Corker as a senator would be a gut busting joke.  Hopefully, not too many municipalities have Diebold voting machings.

CAFKIA 

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It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument.
  - William G. McAdoo

Poll released yesterday has Ford at at 7% lead– Ford 51% - Corker 44%. Hamilton Beattie & Staff conducted the survey among 800 likely voters statewide from October 2 to October 4, 2006. The margin of error was 3.3%

This poll was commisioned by the DNSC. While it is an internal poll it follows the trend of most other polls. The Corker Camp and RNC have on a number of occations refused to publish their own internal polls. This is because the numbers were not good. If they are not to their likings they get back to work and try and pick-up ground. When results come back in favor internal polls are published. These firms that are hired to conduct the polls do their job well and accuratly, otherwise they would not be in business. This poll when compared to the SurveyUSA poll is different, but it shows you the dynamics of the people of TN. This poll was taken over the same time period and with a larger sample rate. I would still like to see the sample rate at 1000.

When you take these two polls and average them, Ford has 48.% while Corker has 46% of the support with a 3.75% margin of error. Still too close to call. I look forward to the coming weeks and Nov 7th

The media seems to forget that TN historically went Democratic in elections prior to "W." We have a Democratic Governor and a State Democratic Congress. As mentioned by a previous post, 43% of voters in TN sided with Kerry in the last election. The moderates independents, and some democrats sided with Bush because of the view that the war was his to fix. Soccer moms and single women statistically support democrats including here in TN. The last elections saw the shift because of Clinton’s affair belief that Republicans would keep us safer. The debate as to who would keep us safer has shifted from Democrats to Republicans. In a poll released today, 57% said Democrats would keep us safer vs. 41% for Republicans. We must not fear the Republican party coming out to vote. They have always come out to vote. The issue has been the Democrats not coming out to vote. Both Parties have their bases that give them their automatic 34-37 % of support and will vote the party line regardless. The ones who will change this election are the moderates and independents. It always comes down to these voters. Don’t buy into the medias hoopla about evangelicals staying home and shifting the election. These voters are part of the automatic 34-37% and will not alter the election.

Conservative Democrats have thrived in this state over the years, a shift that we see re-emerging when it comes to national politics. One must remember. In 2000 Gore lost this state because he took it for granted. He assumed he would get the vote since it was his home state. Clinton's romantic escapades did not sit well with Conservative Democrats nor the woman voters. That loss of support is what swung the election. This state is more democratic than the media leads you to believe. Look at the facts.

Historical Facts:

Governor
McCord (1945-49) D
Browning (1949-53) D
Clement (1953-59) D
Ellington (1959-63) D
Clement (1963-67) D
Ellington (1967-71) D
Dunn (1971-75) R
Blanton (1975-79) D
Alexander (1979-87) R
McWherter (1987-95) D
Sundquist (1995-2003) R
Bredesen (2003- ) D

Senate Seat A
Stewart (1943-49) D
Kefauver (1949-63) D
Walters (1964) D
Bass (1965-67) D
Baker (1967-1985) R
Gore Jr. (1985-93) D
Mathews (1993-1995) D – Gore appointed Vice President, Democratic stalwart Harlan Matthews is appointed by McWherter to the unexpired term and doesn't run in 1994.
Thompson (1995-2003) R – the famous actor, likable guy
Alexander (2003- ) R - Alexander, who hadn't won an election in 20 years, earns the Republican nomination as a moderate, besting Congressman Ed Bryant, a hard-line conservative

Senate Seat B
McKellar (1917-53) D
Gore Sr. (1953-71) D
Brock (1971-77) R
Sasser (1977-95) D
Frist (1995- ) R – Retiring to run for President in 2008

Plane and simple, Tennessee is blue. Scandals and a war is what changed the trend, but only temporarily.