Wed
Oct 11 2006
07:33 am

SurveyUSA shows Bob Corker leading Harold Ford, Jr. by 2 points in a recent poll sponsored by WBIR-TV. The poll was taken this past weekend. Corker is making gains in West Tennessee and among middle income likely voters. The politically obsessed will find the breakdown of the poll interesting. It can be found here. This remains a very close race.

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Scott1202's picture

True

I'm sure...and Katherine Harris is ahead in the polls too.

JaHu's picture

I'm sure...and Katherine

I'm sure...and Katherine Harris is ahead in the polls too.

I'd say she is ahead in their polls. They probably only take results from their Republican base of voters, and my guess is, the vote would still be close. I would bet their polls are fairly accurate because they probably won't let legal voters in heavily Democratic districts vote.

R. Neal's picture

they probably won't let

they probably won't let legal voters in heavily Democratic districts vote

In Florida? Surely you jest.

Actually, Harris's poll was a straw poll that you had to pay $25 to vote in. There are photos of her helping a six year old vote for her. So maybe she has a lock on the elementary school bloc, but it's doubtful that many adults will vote for her.

R. Neal's picture

Interesting. The bad news

Interesting. The bad news for Corker can be found in the "ideology" column under "moderates". And possibly in the East Tennessee column. Who would have ever guessed Ford would doing that well in East Tennessee? Not me.

Ashland City's picture

If Ford wins moderates by

If Ford wins moderates by that margin and does that well in East TN, he wins easily. No way Corker is beating him in West Tennessee. Something is arrary in that poll.

R. Neal's picture

Maybe the poll question went

Maybe the poll question went something like this:

Will you vote for Harold Ford, who will side with Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy against America and with the terrorists, or Bob Corker, who will lower your taxes and keep America safe from terrorists who want to kill you and illegal immigrants who want to take your job?

LeftWingCracker's picture

the REAL goofy part,,,

shows that 23% of African-Americans are voting for Bob Corker.  HUH???

 No, this poll has SERIOUS flaws, and I don't trust it.

Bill Pittman's picture

Of Polls & Debates

I was curious to see last night's debate given that Mr. Corker is the only person running for Senate that declined to participate in the Meet the Press debate series. After watching last night's debate, it is quite evident why Mr. Corker does not want to debate on the national stage...and is therefore unworthy of my vote.
All the best,
Bill Pittman

moderatetrueview's picture

I was only kinda surprised

Woke up this morning to find the poll and I was only slightly shocked. I am a huge Ford supporter, but we have to remember that the other national polls have shown this race a dead heat in almost all were within the margin of error. In this case the margin was 4.2% which means according to this poll Ford can also be ahead as much as 4% when you add and subrtact the margins from both sides. There is no doubt that this will be a close race. I personally prefer polls that sample 800 - 1000 voters. I believe this poll sampled 523. The 23% black vote for Corker is flat out laughable. No way will Mr. Corker gather that much support among African Americans. The latest Gallup poll showed Corker only gathering close to 3% of the black vote. Under 5% is all the Corker camp is figuring into thier equation.

As for the gains in East TN, I believe that Corker has the upper hand, but it is clear Ford has a good base. One higher than most democrats in the past. One very interesting fact you have to look at is the refusal on the Corker camp to debate in East TN. They know the lead they have there is being held together by a thin thread. There is no way they want the people of East TN to see the slaughter that happend last night in Chattanooga.

This is a close race and according to polls Ford had erased an anywhere from 16-25 point lead which Mr. Corker once held. This is a defenite sign that Corker has a problem. The people of TN are making thier voices heard. Ford supporters and the camp can not let up. Efforts need to be stepped up. We have come this far and it would be a shame if such a good man and campaign comes up 2% short.

cafkia's picture

WATE Poll

WATE reported last night that the unscientific poll on their website gave Ford the victory in the debate 82% to 18% for Borg Corker.  I did not look at the numbers myself but that doesn't seem to bode well for Borg Corker.  OTOH, it now makes sense why he was reluctant to debate, especially nationally.  I can see him not wanting to show off his opponents vitality, intelligence, grasp of the issues, and ability to think on his feet.  As near as I can figure the only weapons Borg Corker had to fight those things are, he is really really rich and, Big Jim likes him. (Which I suppose makes him a viable one for one replacement for Frist.)

If the very Constitution upon which our nation is founded was not at stake, the idea of Borg Corker as a senator would be a gut busting joke.  Hopefully, not too many municipalities have Diebold voting machings.

CAFKIA 

----------------------------------------------------------- 

It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument.
  - William G. McAdoo

Andy Axel's picture

Borg Corker

Borg Corker? Heh. That's a new one.

I picture Corker as Locutis with the affect of a countrypolitan hustler.

"Y'all goan be assimilated, now. Y'hear?"

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Scott1202's picture

18% for Borg Corker...Borg

18% for Borg Corker...

Borg Corker... I like that.

Tiny Tim's picture

RNC and NRSC internal polls are much worse for Corker than these

Why else do you think the RNC and the NRSC are here spending millions in a state Bush carried TWO years ago and which the CURRENT Senate Majority Leader hails from?

The internal polls will not be released, primarily because no one would believe how far behind Borg Corkscrew really is. Keep on building Bob.

Eleanor A's picture

Oh, please...

In 2004, for months at a time, Survey USA showed Bush up 20 points in Tennessee. Now, nobody is disputing that Bush won here, but it was by a six-point-slimmer margin than SurveyUSA predicted.

Here's a link to the Survey USA October '04 results for TN from Wayback:

(link...)

Bush is shown winning 58 to 39, with 2% undecided, a six-point skew towards Bush from the final results, which were more like 56-42.

Last I heard, WBIR-TV was not exactly a model news outlet when it came to "fair and balanced." Although I'll grant you, at least they haven't hired Steve Gill...

Moderatetrueview's picture

Comparing the 2 New Polls

Poll released yesterday has Ford at at 7% lead– Ford 51% - Corker 44%. Hamilton Beattie & Staff conducted the survey among 800 likely voters statewide from October 2 to October 4, 2006. The margin of error was 3.3%

This poll was commisioned by the DNSC. While it is an internal poll it follows the trend of most other polls. The Corker Camp and RNC have on a number of occations refused to publish their own internal polls. This is because the numbers were not good. If they are not to their likings they get back to work and try and pick-up ground. When results come back in favor internal polls are published. These firms that are hired to conduct the polls do their job well and accuratly, otherwise they would not be in business. This poll when compared to the SurveyUSA poll is different, but it shows you the dynamics of the people of TN. This poll was taken over the same time period and with a larger sample rate. I would still like to see the sample rate at 1000.

When you take these two polls and average them, Ford has 48.% while Corker has 46% of the support with a 3.75% margin of error. Still too close to call. I look forward to the coming weeks and Nov 7th

moderatetrueview's picture

Look at our states voting history

The media seems to forget that TN historically went Democratic in elections prior to "W." We have a Democratic Governor and a State Democratic Congress. As mentioned by a previous post, 43% of voters in TN sided with Kerry in the last election. The moderates independents, and some democrats sided with Bush because of the view that the war was his to fix. Soccer moms and single women statistically support democrats including here in TN. The last elections saw the shift because of Clinton’s affair belief that Republicans would keep us safer. The debate as to who would keep us safer has shifted from Democrats to Republicans. In a poll released today, 57% said Democrats would keep us safer vs. 41% for Republicans. We must not fear the Republican party coming out to vote. They have always come out to vote. The issue has been the Democrats not coming out to vote. Both Parties have their bases that give them their automatic 34-37 % of support and will vote the party line regardless. The ones who will change this election are the moderates and independents. It always comes down to these voters. Don’t buy into the medias hoopla about evangelicals staying home and shifting the election. These voters are part of the automatic 34-37% and will not alter the election.

Conservative Democrats have thrived in this state over the years, a shift that we see re-emerging when it comes to national politics. One must remember. In 2000 Gore lost this state because he took it for granted. He assumed he would get the vote since it was his home state. Clinton's romantic escapades did not sit well with Conservative Democrats nor the woman voters. That loss of support is what swung the election. This state is more democratic than the media leads you to believe. Look at the facts.

Historical Facts:

Governor
McCord (1945-49) D
Browning (1949-53) D
Clement (1953-59) D
Ellington (1959-63) D
Clement (1963-67) D
Ellington (1967-71) D
Dunn (1971-75) R
Blanton (1975-79) D
Alexander (1979-87) R
McWherter (1987-95) D
Sundquist (1995-2003) R
Bredesen (2003- ) D

Senate Seat A
Stewart (1943-49) D
Kefauver (1949-63) D
Walters (1964) D
Bass (1965-67) D
Baker (1967-1985) R
Gore Jr. (1985-93) D
Mathews (1993-1995) D – Gore appointed Vice President, Democratic stalwart Harlan Matthews is appointed by McWherter to the unexpired term and doesn't run in 1994.
Thompson (1995-2003) R – the famous actor, likable guy
Alexander (2003- ) R - Alexander, who hadn't won an election in 20 years, earns the Republican nomination as a moderate, besting Congressman Ed Bryant, a hard-line conservative

Senate Seat B
McKellar (1917-53) D
Gore Sr. (1953-71) D
Brock (1971-77) R
Sasser (1977-95) D
Frist (1995- ) R – Retiring to run for President in 2008

Plane and simple, Tennessee is blue. Scandals and a war is what changed the trend, but only temporarily.

Rachel's picture

Plane and simple, Tennessee

Plane and simple, Tennessee is blue.

No, it's not.  But it's not red either.  What it is overall is moderate, and usually when given a chance to vote for what it perceives as a moderate candidate (1994 Senate race the exception), that's who wins the state.

That's why Bredesen won (well, ok, also because folks perceived - correctly - Van Hilliary as a total ninny).  I think a Ford win would in part just signal the state moving back to the middle where it's most comfortable.

P.S.  Lamar! was a moderate when he ran for governor.  He only moved right later to jump on the bandwagon and take advantage of the times.  Which is one reason I have zero respect for him.

moderatetrueview's picture

Agree and Disagree

I agree that this state is moderate, but when you look at the stats, which speak for themselves, This state is full of moderate democrats. Now being a moderate myself and running a moderate political website, I am the first to admit that I can see myself voting either party if the canidate is right, but my values venture toward the democrats. As a moderate democrat, I admit that I have some republican values. I grew up in Texas. Gun control and Captial Punishment I venture to the right. The fact that moderate democrats win in this state time and time again speaks to the mood of the state. When you break it down, in the end, this state is blue. Now a blue TN is not the same as a blue MA but it is still blue. There is a difference, but more people in this state have historicaly gone to the left rather the far right.

moderatetrueview's picture

Agreed Prt2

Agreed on Van Hillary and Lamar. Corker is trying to pull the same swap. He ran as a moderate in 1994, ran as a partial moderate during the senate race (it depened on when you saw him) and after the primary ran as a far right concervative and is now trying to run as a moderate again. When he annouced he would be a more independet candidate than Harold Ford a few days ago, I just about busted a gut. This flip flop political stance is one main reason why I have little respect for him.

Andy Axel's picture

You'll note, you never hear

You'll note, you never hear Corker admit to being Commissioner of F&A under Sundquist.

I'd love to see a town hall questioner or a TV moderator hammer him on that one... "Mayor Corker, as commissioner of Finance and Administration for Governor Sundquist's administration, what role did you have in managing TennCare, and what steps did you take to keep the system solvent?"

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