Thu
May 16 2013
08:11 am

From NBC News ....

“We are in the midst of dramatic assault on the security of the food supply,” said Dr. Robert S. Lawrence, director of the Center for a Livable Future, part of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The group promotes ecological research into the nexus of diet, food production, environment and human health.

The primary culprit of all this menu mayhem is climate change, which is choking off certain crops already weakened by both genetic tinkering and chemically based farming, some experts contend.

Food supply under assault as climate heats up

George's picture

I wonder why NBC didn't

I wonder why NBC didn't interview any agriculture professors or agricultural economists for this piece. They interviewed a medical doctor (not an agriculture or crop production specialist), a spokesman for NOAA (not an agriculture or crop production specialist), and corridor design ecologist (not an agriculture or crop production specialist).

The dead giveaway that they were just looking for a headline and some quotes to support their ideology was their factoid about the amount of corn planted YTD vs 2012. Anyone involved in crop production knows that the weather this year has been quite different than last year -- specifically, cooler and wetter. If your corn is planted too early (weather too cool), your yield decreases. When your fields are too wet, you can't get your equipment around your fields without getting stuck.

Maybe they should talk to people who are actually producing our food supply about what state it's in.

fischbobber's picture

Perhaps

You could contact John Bohnstadt and get his take on this story. He is one of the world's pre-eminent authorities on the subject and if he's back from England from giving a speech on famines, I'm sure he'd be happy to share his views on the topic with you.

I had no idea that farmers waited until the morning of planting to buy their seed corn, (which is how one would measure this). You'd think those guys would think ahead and be a little less concerned abound how knot-head right wing pundits get their information.

SnM's picture

Do you mean Dr. Bohstedt,

Do you mean Dr. Bohstedt, who's retired from the UT History Dept?

fischbobber's picture

Yup.

(Sorry about misspelling your name John. I should have looked it up.)

His field of expertise is food riots. He has some interesting things to say on both the history of famine and present day food policy. For my two cents, he's a lot smarter than george not verified.

George's picture

How do I get my information?

How do I get my information? Let's consider your comment about seed purchases. From the USDA's May 13, 2013 Crop Progress report:

"The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from approximately 4,000 respondents whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. Based on standard definitions, these respondents subjectively estimate the progress of crops through various stages of development, as well as the progress of producer activities. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions."

The figure mentioned in the article has nothing to do with seed purchases.

You should check the USDA crop report from May 10, which said:

"In a report released Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated farmers would bring in 14.1 billion bushels of corn in 2013, a billion bushels more than the previous record set in 2009."

and

"Farmers are planting more than 97 million acres of corn, the most since 1936."

This is why I posited that someone with agriculture knowledge be interviewed for the story, not non-agronomists.

fischbobber's picture

Weather vs. Climate change

I'm positing that you're deliberately confusing the two in an attempt to support a thesis that has no evidence unless you make it up.

George's picture

Maybe you're right. Maybe I

Maybe you're right. Maybe I don't get it. What was my thesis, anyhow? I only said that they should interview agronomists for crop production articles.

I also don't think I'm the one who is confusing weather and climate -- the author of the NBC article did that. He tried to use the late planting of the 2013 corn crop as evidence that climate change is ruining our food supply. But, the difference in planting date is caused by weather, not climate, and he ignored USDA forecasts that 2013's corn yield will be the largest on record.

George's picture

You just proved my point

You just proved my point

George's picture

Doesn't fit the narrative?

Doesn't fit the narrative? What narrative are you talking about? Is it so far out of line to ask that someone with food crop production knowledge be interviewed for a food crop production article?

If the author is going to make the claim that climate change is jeopardizing our food supply, he needs to cite data to back up that claim. Instead, he fills his article with false or misleading claims and cites "experts" who don't know anything about this particular field.

Would you stick up as fervently for a medical article in which garbage collectors were the main source of information? Probably not.

BTW, you still haven't disproven any of my claims. You've just tried to attack me and you've steered clear of the main issue.

Andy Axel's picture

Forecast is a forecast

And forecasts are not destiny.

George's picture

You are correct that

You are correct that forecasts are not destiny. But, if this year's forecast (which has already been adjusted downward) is overestimating by the largest amount that has been overestimated in the last 40 yrs (25%), the 2013 corn crop would still be the largest in history.

Let's learn to use the data, not blindly follow ideology.

Andy Axel's picture

Let's learn to use the data,

Let's learn to use the data, not blindly follow ideology.

You first.

Factchecker's picture

When media "experts" blather

When media "experts" blather on about how climate change is a hoax and that climate merely heats up and cools back down naturally throughout history, etc., I wonder how quick George is to remind people that we need to listen instead to real climate scientists.

George's picture

I agree entirely that "real

I agree entirely that "real climate scientists" should be interviewed for climate articles. Just remember: There are "real climate scientists" on both sides of that issue -- not all climate scientists agree.

George's picture

We're getting away from the

We're getting away from the point of the article (and the point of my post). I'm not here to comment about climate change, whether its real, or what causes it -- and the article wasn't about that, either.

Again, all I'm saying is that the author used non-crop people, a poor understanding of USDA reports, and mistaking weather for climate as justification for his headline. It sure looks like he began with his headline, then tried to piece together something with poor anecdotes and misunderstood figures back up his narrative. Maybe he should have begun by researching the topic, interviewing the right people, then reaching a conclusion after gathering the facts.

I'm making a comment about journalism here, not climate.

fischbobber's picture

Dear george not verified

You misquoted one fact out of context from the body of an article to prove an unfounded and some might even say slanderous observation about a subject you clearly don't understand.

His historical data was directly related to his point (please note his documentation of CO2 levels) and he quoted and listed 5 credible sources in a five hundred word essay.

I've followed your work now for over twenty years. I've never seen you even have five credible sources for any of your arguments, much less be able to use them in as succinct and coherent manner as the author in question.

You're irritated because the author is correct, but he's not in tune with the message that those hiring you as a lapdog want spread to the public.

Such is life.

Spinning a viewpoint from half-truthes and lies is not journalism. It's public relations.

George's picture

Have you read the study

Have you read the study referenced in your link? I think you're misleading us a bit.

The study didn't declare that a particular percentage of scientists agreed with AGW (anthropogenic global warming). This study tried to find how many scientific paper abstracts agreed with AGW. Out of 11,944 abstracts written between 1992 and 2012, only 32.6% (~4,000) said that human activity could not be ruled out as a factor in global warming.

Of the 11,944 abstracts, 66.4% (~7930) expressed no opinion at all about AGW. 0.7% of the abstracts (~830) said that human activity could be completely ruled out of any global warming theory, and 0.3% (~350) were uncertain about the causes of global warming.

Of the ~4,000 abstracts that said that human activity couldn't be ruled out as a global warming cause, 97.1% of them say that human activity is at least partly responsible for global warming. Only 143 of the ~4,000 abstracts actually indicate how much warming human activity is responsible for. Of those 143 abstracts, 65 say human activity is responsible for more than 40% of global warming, while 78 say that humans are responsible for less than 40% of global warming.

Personally, I don't know if AGW exists or not. But, the abstract review you linked to doesn't establish a consensus one way or the other. It just tells me that we don't have enough evidence to conclusively say humans are or are not warming the earth.

So, let's approach this from an impartial, scientific point of view and not let our emotions could our judgment.

fischbobber's picture

Your half truth (or lie, take your pick)

The article also said that the reason the abstracts did not state an opinion on AGW is that the conclusion was so widely accepted that the didn't want to waste the space.

In fact, less than 1% of the abstracts endorsed the idea that man was not responsible for AGW and did not explore whether or not there was financial benefit to those taking this viewpoint, purely for the sake of taking it.

I would submit that you are cherry-picking data in order to support a false premise.

George's picture

Seriously?! You're telling

Seriously?! You're telling me that I'm cherry-picking the data, then you're trying to distract everyone with "financial benefit" speculation?

The data are what they are. You are correct that the authors of the study in question hypothesized that some amount of the abstracts that didn't state an opinion could have taken AGW to be a given. But, their data didn't show that. Their own raters, using their own quite generous criteria, found that more than 60% of the reviewed abstracts took absolutely no discernible opinion on AGW.

I think everyone should read this paper, paying special attention to the methodology. We're talking about this paper like its some sort of end-all be-all, but the work was really subjective. The researchers didn't rate actual research papers -- they just rated abstracts, which are summaries that may or may not include key information. They used their own criteria to rate abstracts -- they scanned them for keywords they picked on their own (kind of like using ctrl + F to search a document or webpage for a word). They didn't read a single abstract or paper, so there could have been nuances or caveats that were missed (that could have supported or refuted their position).

It is important that we understand and can critically think about what we're reading, not just accept whatever headline they throw at us. If you read my post, you'll see that I, too, noted that the study found that less than 1% of their scanned abstracts endorsed the idea that human activity had no impact on global warming. At the same time, this paper also said that of the 173 papers that assigned a value or proportion of human activity's impact on global warming, more papers (78) said human activity had less than 40% impact on global warming.

This tells me that the consensus is not defined and that the cause is still unknown.

George's picture

??? Are we reading the same

??? Are we reading the same article (the Bill Briggs article linked at the very top of this page)? I only found three people interviewed for the article (Robert Lawrence, John Ewald, and Lee Hannah) and one incomplete out-of-context reference to a USDA report. Lawrence, Ewald, and Hannah may be very credible people, but none of them are crop scientists.

What historical CO2 data are you talking about? He referenced the CO2 measurement at Mauna Loa, but that number at that weather station has little to do with crop production elsewhere. You can't have possibly followed me for 20 years, b/c my career hasn't been that long. But, if you have read my peer reviewed papers, I thank you. Perhaps you don't like the links I have made, but they are all .edu links or scientific journal links.

Also, what is the message you think I'm trying to spread? I don't have a position on climate change. I just don't like it when popular press articles don't use evidence when makign claims and I pay particular attention to environmental and crop production issues.

fischbobber's picture

5 sources

There were two data sources, USDA and NOAA as well as the three sources you cited. I hardly think we can source the 1958 data to this guy.

(link...).

The article was not about short term crop production but long term food supply.

(link...).

Here is a link to the credentials of one of the men you claim is not qualified to be a credible source in an article concerning the long term food supply of the earth. It would appear to me, that your point is that because of his medical degree, he is somehow incapable of understanding and relating climate change to the world's food supply. I would submit that his credentials and experience suggest that you're wrong.

Finally, here's Lee Hannah's link.

(link...)

The idea that these folks are less than qualified to comment on climate and how it relates to the food supply is preposterous. In fact, the article was clearly written and stated and its thesis is superbly supported.

I also noted that you haven't clearly stated just what information or conclusions are wrong and presented a counterargument. Perhaps you could point us to one of your peer reviewed papers.

George's picture

You can't double dip

John Ewald works for NOAA and gave the author the NOAA data. That doesn't count twice -- you can't double dip. And, I already included the USDA data in my post.

But, you're missing the point. None of these sources have brought to the table any evidence to support their claims. The author did tell us that the most recent CO2 measurement was higher than ever recorded at the Mauna Loa weather station, but he didn't tell us how that impacts crops.

The author mentions some problems with the citrus greening bacteria, but he ignores the USDA reports that 2013's crop will produce only 5% less citrus on 15% less land than in 2012 -- and this year's crop has higher sugar content and flavor ratings than last year's crop. Reserchers at the University of Florida have developed management practices for this and say that it's not as big a problem as the media has made it out to be. They also say that it's not a climate issue, but a short-term weather issue. Why did the author not consult a crop scientist or UF citrus physiologist for this information?

We already discussed how the author mistook short-term weather conditions for longer-term climate conditions with his needless mention of corn plantings.

It looks like the author came in with the intent to write a "global warming is dooming us all" article, whether the facts supported his position or not. The bottom line is that he provided no evidence to support his position. I'm not saying that his position is necessarily wrong. But, I *am* saying that he didn't use evidence to support his headline.

fischbobber's picture

Double dipping

The baseline data I gathered for the acid deposition study in the GSMNP is source data. I am the source.

The source data gathered by others comes from other sources. Steve Moore's review and conclusions about that data are yet another.

The data is one thing, the conclusions drawn by a scientist about that data are another.

But you knew that because Toby's link (link...)

Established the same data, minus the opinion.

The author did tell us that the most recent CO2 measurement was higher than ever recorded at the Mauna Loa weather station, but he didn't tell us how that impacts crops.

“That warmer and more moist air (caused by the CO2) creates the conditions that certain pathogens thrive on,” Lawrence said. “That’s the dilemma with things like the coffee fungi and some of the problems with citrus.”

Again, you simply ignore everything that doesn't fit your fantasy.

George's picture

So.....

So, if I tell you something I heard from Bob, who heard it from Jim, who heard it from Susie, who read a quote in a magazine that came from a book, I just used 5 sources?

Factchecker's picture

Liar or ignoramus, there's no middle ground

There are too many words here for me to adequately reply to George from an iPad while on vacation, but if he doesn't "believe" in AGW he has no credibility on any scientific issue.

George's picture

I never said one way or the

I never said one way or the other.

Factchecker's picture

Why don't you?

Great opportunity to set the record straight.

George's picture

Strike 1 -- The citrus issue

Strike 1 -- The citrus issue is a bacteria whose function has nothing to do with humidity (rather unchanged in FL) or CO2 (relatively unchaged in FL). Production per acre is also up over last year.

Strike 2 -- The latest word from the American Phytopathological Society (APS) is that coffee rust in Guatemala is the result of using old, susceptible coffee varieties and ignoring the newer, rust-resistant varieties. APS says that climate has little to do with this. In case you're wondering, the largest coffee sellers using Guatemalan beans say there is no hint of disruption in their supply.

Again, if the author would have spoken to someone with crop production knowledge, all these problem could have been avoided.

Factchecker's picture

Maybe redundant to above, but...

(link...)

...Because deniers tend to go to the OpEd pages and TV, rather than science journals, the public perception is skewed in their favor; people think this is a bigger controversy than it is. The only controversy here is a manufactured one; made up by people who are basing it on ideology, not facts, evidence, and science. That’s not just my opinion; that statement itself is backed up by facts, evidence, and science. ...

fischbobber's picture

Doesn't count.

Doesn't count. It's a real, verifiable, linked source with hard data to back it up.

In George's world, only George counts as a real source. You'll just have to take his word for it.

George's picture

Brilliant!

You claim that deniers go to OpEd pages, then you link to one! Ha Ha Ha!

I guess you got the last laugh!

Have you even read the paper?

Factchecker's picture

You claim that deniers go to

You claim that deniers go to OpEd pages, then you link to one! Ha Ha Ha!

By this logic all communication occurs in a vacuum and thus is meaningless. If you bothered with the link, there are more links to real science you claim to care about.

George's picture

I did follow the link. I've

I did follow the link. I've linked to Slate on this board in the past and was told that it was a biased OpEd site. So, I thought that was true no matter who linked to it.

But, I've noticed that you still haven't linked to the original paper. Why would you send us to Slate instead of sending us to the original paper to get the author's comments?

Methinks you are regurgitating what others are telling you instead of thinking for yourself.

Factchecker's picture

The links are there. Such

The links are there. Such articles are written for lay persons and are perfectly appropriate.

Do you recognize AGW?

George's picture

AGW

Do I recognize AGW? I don't know. There's so much conflicting information out there that I'm just not sure. The study you cited even said that 66% of the abstracts they scanned thought the same way. I don't know that I have enough evidence to commit totally to one side or the other.

But, my personal thoughts on this subject don't matter here. This isn't about me. Going all the way back to my original post, this is about proper journalism.

Factchecker's picture

Busted

Do I recognize AGW? I don't know. There's so much conflicting information out there that I'm just not sure. The study you cited even said that 66% of the abstracts they scanned thought the same way. I don't know that I have enough evidence to commit totally to one side or the other.

But, my personal thoughts on this subject don't matter here. This isn't about me. Going all the way back to my original post, this is about proper journalism.

It matters only to your credibility. The climate that we've destabilized doesn't care. If you've done the kind of homework you claim you're so adept at, the last thing you'd be would be ambivalent on the matter. Instead you keep narrowing the subject. This article is irrelevant to the big picture, but you're trying to argue the opposite. Nice try. You don't really care about "proper journalism" because there's no meaning in your world.

George's picture

Whoa, whoa, whoa!!!

Whoa, whoa, whoa!!! Back off the ledge.

Let's go back to the topic sentence of my first post in this thread: "I wonder why NBC didn't interview any agriculture professors or agricultural economists for this piece."

I'm not making any kind of comment about the climate at all. The article claimed that something was impacting how crops grow and I noticed that no one with a background in crop production was interviewed. The author clearly had an agenda and was going to write something that matched that, regardless of how poorly it was researched.

Now, his thesis may be entirely correct. But, he didn't include information that would convince anyone of that who didn't hold the same agenda a priori.

You're clearly trying to divert attention from the issue at hand. Don't worry -- I'm not attacking your precious AGW. But, it looks like you're so worried and unsure about your own beliefs that you feel like you need to attack me. If AGW is real, it will show, If it is not real, it will show. While we're trying to figure out if it is real, we should probably include the right experts when needed.

If you wanted to quell the deniers, wouldn't you want to write something that included opinions from many different disciplines that are impacted by climate change? When the author stick only to a narrow set, it looks like he isn't secure in his belief, either.

fischbobber's picture

Proper journalism

Clearly you don't understand modern journalism since a word count and fitting your work into an assigned number of column inches are concepts beyond your comprehension. For those of us in the real world who have to deal with on an ongoing basis with both editor's tastes and space restrictions, the challenge of writing something both vanilla enough to conform with a broad-based publication and within the space limits provided are the primary blockades between having a point to make and making it in an interesting and readable manner.

For instance, here is a link to a scholarly written and reviewed paper reaching essentially the same conclusion as the writer you keep hammering.

(link...)

The problem is, it is long and tedious, which I gather, is your point. If we obfuscate the issue for the average American, they will quickly bore and turn their attention elsewhere. And that is the game for people like you. Spin doctors are nothing but liars on the lookout for ways to hide the truth. And you sir, are a liar.

You're clearly trying to divert attention from the issue at hand. Don't worry -- I'm not attacking your precious AGW. But, it looks like you're so worried and unsure about your own beliefs that you feel like you need to attack me. If AGW is real, it will show, If it is not real, it will show. While we're trying to figure out if it is real, we should probably include the right experts when needed.

Your quote is nothing more than a lie framed as an observation. And you're nothing but a liar masquerading as a rational human. Writers write within the parameters defined by their editors. Spin doctors process the dingleberries within their skulls at the beck of their masters. The reason it seems as if the attack is on you is that you have brought neither fact, realities nor ideas to this forum. You have merely brought an abstract thesis that non-conformance to your intellectual understandings somehow negates all logic and reason, yet, yet you don't seem to have the ability to form and state a rational thought. So you lie and you lie in a cowardly manner.

Anonymousish's picture

Bravo George

Well done. Your good manners and simple concise points have driven these three into a slobbering frothing meltdown of insults, lies, half truths, and gross innuendo.

I especially like the ludicrous claim, "I win". The clarion call of every third grade blowhard.

What next boys, hold your breath until you turn blue?

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