Wed
Aug 23 2006
05:18 pm

Sept. 5, 2006 Issue (doesn't appear to be on-line yet)

We subscribe and have been for probably 20 years. Don't much read it anymore. For some reason I was attracted to the new issue we received in the mail today.

First thing to catch my eye was Yesterday (1979) and Today (2006). The 8088 chip was announced to power the IBM PC in 1979, then recently the Core 2 Extreme chip was announced. 5 MHz vs 29,300 MHz, 8 bit bus vs 128 bits, 1MB memory vs 8GB. The numbers are fascinating, to me, but the rest of the story is interesting, app of the moment 1979 VisiCalc, app of the moment 2006 iTunes. Bill Gates 1979 "Buy my BASIC", Bill Gates 2006 "I'm outta here".

Then, regarding the new chip, "What should u buy?". Twentysomethings categorized as gamer, Thirtysomethings as video ipod fanatic, Forty somethings as Engineer and Coder. 

As I have worried many times, when are our 20 and 30 somethings going to get under the covers of the systems and be designers instead of just users? I said in the past, "I find it hard to believe there is a "shortage of qualified technical talent" in the US." I could be wrong.

R. Neal's picture

Ah, the good old days. I am

Ah, the good old days. I am reminded of some famous statements of the time. Such as "640K of RAM is all anyone could conceivably ever need" (Bill Gates, paraphrased). And, some Bubba and his significant other business partner talking about doing a networked version of one of their applications, and said Bubba arguing that a networked version wasn't needed because the "P" in "PC" stood for "Personal".

Michael's picture

Speaking of online apps...

Check out Google's latest beta: Writely.
~m. 

Socialist With A Gold Card's picture

Lord, this is causing

Lord, this is causing flashbacks to Zenith Heathkit build-it-yerself machines, running CPM off a 5 1/4" floppy (it had that groovy 8087 math chip and everything). I thought I was hot stuff when I upgraded to a whopping 640K of RAM and MS-DOS 2.0. I really thought I was somethin' when I removed the second floppy and added a humongous 32 MB hard drive. I thought, "32 megabytes is more storage than I could ever possibly use in my entire life."

Of course, this was long before digital music. And digital porn.

Bizgrrl, I do think there's been a shortage of qualified technical talent here lately. The operative word, of course, is "qualified." After the dot-com bubble burst, lots of companies scaled back IT spending due to nothing more than panic. As a result, gobs of people were laid off and have since pursued careers in other fields. Meanwhile, real IT needs (infrastructure, administration, and serious coding) have continued unabated and have even grown quite a bit over the last three years. So the need for those skills still remains, but the pool of available workers has shrunk.

Most of the developers I've worked with over the last five years have been 40+ years of age (I'm included in that bracket); I've only worked with a tiny handful younger than that. My contacts outside East Tennessee aver to the same phenomenon in other parts of the country.

The pendulum will swing back, of course; it always does. The same thing happened during the economic slowdown of 1987-88, but the IT and engineering labor pool built itself back up again after a few years.

--Socialist With A Gold Card


"I'm a socialist with a gold card. I firmly believe we need a revolution; I'm just concerned that I won't be able to get good moisturizer afterwards." --Brett Butler

 

Andy Axel's picture

I do think there's been a

I do think there's been a shortage of qualified technical talent here lately. The operative word, of course, is "qualified." After the dot-com bubble burst, lots of companies scaled back IT spending due to nothing more than panic.

Many IT organizations that I work with scaled back IT because IT has always sold itself as an "all things to all people at 1/8 the cost" branch of business. (One particular customer -- a regional business with over a dozen locations -- has an IT department consisting of two FTEs. Two. One of those is the "manager" and the other guy does all of the phones & data. And they do most of their business electronically.)

In a lot of ways, IT has been a victim of its own success. Some organizations believe (rightly or wrongly) that IT doesn't take a substantial headcount, and that IT can pretty much do its own thing unattended. At least that's what decision-makers have done lately in this market. Among all specialist divisions, I'd say IT ranks just ahead of Training in terms of being driven to do a lot more with a whole lot less.

As a result, gobs of people were laid off and have since pursued careers in other fields.

[raises hand] That was me, even a couple of years before the "dot-conomy" was all the buzz. I got out of operational support and into sales. The financial upside is a lot bigger, the level of administrivia is a lot less, and I'm not on call after hours to go reboot some damn server or other.

Meanwhile, real IT needs (infrastructure, administration, and serious coding) have continued unabated and have even grown quite a bit over the last three years. So the need for those skills still remains, but the pool of available workers has shrunk.

Still, salary demands are pretty stiff for folks who got onto the gravy train of commissioned sales. Most of the talented people I know of who're repping manufacturers or service providers now would never consider getting back onto that side of the business. It'd be considered a huge step backwards professionally, from a quality of life perspective, and would probably represent a significant pay cut.

____________________________

"winkin' at my peers," quotin' Thurston.

Les Jones's picture

Andy:

Interesting. Didn't know you were in sales.

I'm in a technical/management/sales support niche. It's pretty amazing what some salespeople can make in the right company or with the right spiff programs. 


Hey, Les, why don't we just call each other assholes and get it over with. - Somebody on the old Southknoxbubba.net (if that was you, claim your quote and win net.fame!)

Socialist With A Gold Card's picture

Coders vs. salespeople

Andy, you're definitely right about some people leaving IT support and infrastructure roles for more lucrative sales jobs. However, I can't think of any developers I know who have done that. The coders I know who've left the field have typically pursued management jobs or have left the IT industry completely. Most developers (me included) don't have the personality type necessary to be a successful salesperson (the host of this site notwithstanding); the stereotype of the pocket-protected, caffeine-fueled nerd writing code for hours at a stretch is a stereotype grounded in reality.

You said some organizations believe "IT can pretty much do its own thing unattended." To me, that is the most compelling reason to stay on the developer side of the fence. The old saw that says "supervising developers is like trying to herd cats" just carries the ring of truth to me, and I enjoy being one of the cats.

Of course, the shortage of experienced developers has caused my salary to go way up over the last few years, so I'm not complaining too much.

Quite a few organizations in the Knoxville area have begun ramping up IT spending over the last three years though, and I consistently hear from several contacts that they're having a hard time finding the right people to fill those roles.

You're absolutely right about the expectation that IT should be able to do a lot more with a lot less. With Microsoft (as one example) marketing .NET as the be-all end-all of development, supposedly requiring nothing more than a few mouse clicks to create a usable application, non-technical managers of technical staff have begun to swallow the hype. They believe the hype that "ClickOnce" and its ilk will really deploy a usable application with essentially no work on the part of the developer. 

Some of the hype isn't really hype. I can indeed develop faster with .NET and SQL Server than with any other platform I've ever used. And don't get me started on the SQL Server vs. Oracle thing -- there's no comparison. These improvements in productivity get exaggerated when they're explained to non-technical manager types, who tend to hear the previous sentences as "He doesn't need more than 30 minutes to create this application." Of course, that's hooey.

So, the hype eventually bites organizational managers in the butt when they realize that .NET (or any other platform) still requires a lot of brainwork, design, testing, and debugging to make anything groovy, secure, stable, and usable. That's where the labor shortage hits -- the previous scaling back of IT spending is now colliding with an ever greater emphasis on automating everything we possibly can. Once the FTE requirements become clear to the decision-makers (even with our sexy new development tools), they begin to realize that the warm bodies needed to fill those slots are more scarce than they were a few years ago.

--Socialist With A Gold Card


"I'm a socialist with a gold card. I firmly believe we need a revolution; I'm just concerned that I won't be able to get good moisturizer afterwards." --Brett Butler

 

bizgrrl's picture

Amen, sister (or

Amen, sister (or brother)!

That was a great rant. I remember when I worked for a large corporation. Our new department head wanted us to develop prototypes quickly (no real testing), let the users work/play with it, then see where it went. We never had time to develop a finished product and the users were always complaining because they were using unfinished products. We had three workers supporting hardware, networks, and software for 1,000 end-users. It was a good learning experience but I was glad to get out of there.  

Socialist With A Gold Card's picture

That would be "brother," the

That would be "brother," the reference to moisturizer in my signature notwithstanding.

Your scenario certainly rings true with me. A rush to publish an application followed immediately by the next urgent project in the queue often leads to previous projects being left behind. No application is ever "finished," but the short attention span of many managers can exacerbate the problem.

The solution, of course, is to rally the end users and convince them to complain to management, not the development team. It often works for me.

Fortunately, my present gig is a lot more laid back than that. I know lots of developers in Knoxville who are totally stressed at work; I'm thankful that I'm not one of them.

--Socialist With A Gold Card


"I'm a socialist with a gold card. I firmly believe we need a revolution; I'm just concerned that I won't be able to get good moisturizer afterwards." --Brett Butler

 

bizgrrl's picture

Oh, and regarding your

Oh, and regarding your statement:

Most developers (me included) don't have the personality type necessary to be a successful salesperson (the host of this site notwithstanding);

I work with the gracious host of this site. I'll never forget the time we were selling to a customer, on-site at their location. He argued with the President of the company in front of employees of the company that the President was wrong about something. Needless to say we didn't close the sale.

R. Neal's picture

Oh, is that why you won't

Oh, is that why you won't let me go on sales calls any more?

P.S. Regardless, that guy WAS wrong.

Socialist With A Gold Card's picture

OK, I totally take back what

OK, I totally take back what I said about the host's salesmanship. Dude, if I were bizgrrl, I wouldn't let you go on sales calls either.

--Socialist With A Gold Card


"I'm a socialist with a gold card. I firmly believe we need a revolution; I'm just concerned that I won't be able to get good moisturizer afterwards." --Brett Butler

 

Anonymous's picture

As I have worried many

"As I have worried many times, when are our 20 and 30 somethings going to get under the covers of the systems and be designers instead of just users?"

But see, that just the thing. We started out with Model T's and we're now at least up to a 1946 Packard. Those early computers required you to be a mecahnic to run one. Now they're good enough to use as tools and toys without being a programmer. That's a good thing, really.

There may be a shortage of qualified techies, but the other half of the equation is that there's a lot more technology out there that's useful to consumers.

P.S., I remember a Xitan box and paper tape in the house when I was a kid. All the other kids said I was lying when I told them we had a computer at home. My dad would call Microsoft tech support when Bill Gates was the one answering the phone.

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