Submitted by sugarfatpie on Mon, 2009/11/16 - 12:25pm

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/11/16/walter/

This is another fascinating case of the increasingly radical GOP base pulling their party so far out of the mainstream that they will lose the general election in 2012.

Iowa: easy win for Palin assuming she stays in the spotlight.
New Hampshire: Not so easy
South Carolina: Easy win
After winning SC she might be unstoppable (in the primaries that is).
Then come a slew of western states where Palin's AK roots will put her well ahead.
Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, N&S Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico.

The GOP has hobbled itself with a primary structure that favors a radical insurgent.

Combine this with the ratings driven FOX and Rush echo chamber (who can all prosper from the ratings provided by the GOP base and "rogue" opposition status).

Winning national elections is becoming an increasingly tall order for the GOP.

92
vote
Hayduke's picture

In this corner...

It will be interesting to see how this fight plays out. The conservatives who want to bring the Party back will be scrambling to fix this while the extremists who see the chance to take over aren't going to give it up without a tussle.

As amusing as it would be for the Republicans to put forth a 2012 candidate considered unqualified by 71% of the voters, it would be better for all of us if there was a sane and thoughtful opposition.

WhitesCreek's picture

"The book fully reveals her. Dishonest, small and petty."

Ouch!

That's Steve Schmidt, Campaign manager for McCain-Palin, with his book review of "Going Rogue".

review

Virgil Proudfoot's picture

Actually, one sane party ain't bad

Hayduke said: "As amusing as it would be for the Republicans to put forth a 2012 candidate considered unqualified by 71% of the voters, it would be better for all of us if there was a sane and thoughtful opposition."

Look on the bright side. Given that about 80 percent of the U.S. population believes in an All Powerful Creator who speaks to them, and a similar percentage believes that the world is only 6000 years old, maybe having even one sane political party (the Dems, dopey as they are) is a major accomplishment.

"I used to be with it, but then they changed what it was. Now what I'm with isn't it, and what's it seems scary and weird. It'll happen to you."
—Abraham Simpson

Rachel's picture

Iowans, even Iowan

Iowans, even Iowan Republicans, have better sense.

Besides, Palin doesn't want to be President. Governing is too hard and doesn't pay well enough.

Hayduke's picture

She could try it for a year

She could try it for a year or two before she has to decide.

Hildegard's picture

She also says Schmidt

She also says Schmidt screamed at her after she fell for a hoax in which a prank caller pretended to be French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

I believe that.

gonzone's picture

New Name(s)

The "conservative" label has been so misused that it becomes meaningless.
I suggest some new appellations.
How about "Palindrones" for Sarah's nutty contingent?
And "Teabaggers" works perfectly well for that bunch of radicals.
Somehow the racists don't have straight up representation excepting Dobbs and Buchanan.
Maybe we'll just call them "Minutemen?"
For old school Republicans I don't know except maybe the "Rockefellers?"
Lest we forget, there's the anti-abortionists and the gay haters and it has already been mentioned about the literal Bible crowd.
Used to just be Republicans.
Pretty big tent of nuts at one time.

Any strains of wingers I've missed?

"If ignorance is bliss, why aren't more people happy?"

redmondkr's picture

She also says Schmidt

She also says Schmidt screamed at her after she fell for a hoax in which a prank caller pretended to be French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

According to McCain's people Schmidt made no such call. I think he screamed at her in an email (probably all caps).

It seems that the national pastime has become counting the lies in her book. So much for those comedians who thought the retirement of Dubyuh would put them out of work.

I can see Tennesseans flocking to the polls to vote for this victim of the librul media.


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R. Neal's picture

Re. 2012 GOP nominee: Please

Re. 2012 GOP nominee: Please let it be Palin!

sugarfatpie's picture

10 reasons for Palin getting the nomination from 538.com

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

1. Enthusiasm. People tend to see electorate through a one-dimensional lens, in which a fixed number of voters are trying to decide between two or more candidates. But that's not really how politics works, especially in primaries. Rather, the playing field is (at least) two-dimensional: people are not merely trying to decide whom to vote for, but also whether to vote at all. Because of the reach of her brand, Palin has the ability to engage the sorts of voters who might ordinarily stay at home. In the general election, that will include some voters who turn out to vote against her -- but that's less of a concern in the primaries.

2. 2010. Next November will probably be a happy night for Republicans and my guess the emergent c.w. will be that it occurred because of, rather than in spite of, the Republicans eschewing moderation in favor of (re)building their base. In reality, that case is likely to be highly circumstantial at best -- it might be that Republicans gain, I don't know, 26 House seats, but would have gained 33 if they'd run more to the center. But that won't prevent people from leaping to conclusions, and I expect those conclusions to tend to play favorably for Palin.

more at 538

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

sugarfatpie's picture

New Fox news poll shows Palin approval up 10% to 47%!

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/19/fox-news-poll-palin-going-rogue/
And she's only 10% less popular than Obama!
And they are dead even among independents!
And only 3% points less likely than Hillary Clinton to be welcome at your average "real american's" home for Thanksgiving!
Eeek run for the hills, the hockey mom cometh!

Ideal scenario:
Palin keeps up the charm tour, declares early and monopolizes enough media attention to sweep the early primaries. Becomes a lock for the GOP nomination.

Convinces herself that all you need to win is to be the big name on the ticket and a total charmer.
Does nothing to improve her image as an ignorant xenophobe.
Has a few more more nightmarish interviews.
Crashes and burns with maybe 33% of the vote (at best -even with 50% of independents).
This would probably produce a Reaganesque landslide in the electoral college for Obama.

-Sugarfatpie (AKA Alex Pulsipher)

"X-Rays are a hoax."-Lord Kelvin

bill young's picture

Can't be elected President?

A right winger can't be elected president.

No way..no how.The voters are centrist..not
wing nuts.

Republican primary voters are not crazy & won't
vote for some right wing loser.

Sure maybe a right winger could eek out a
win in a primary or two but for God's sake
we tried that & got killed.

No we gonna nominate a safe moderatly conservative
Republican candidate for president.

That was the conventional wisdom in 1980.

How did that work out?

If Obama is in trouble come 2012..Palin could win.

If Obama is in good shape come 2012..Palin could run 3rd party.

StaceyDiamond's picture

Palin

While I obviously don't like Palin's politics I like her style (the screw you handlers and the media)and she has tapped into something. If she had more substance she would be more of a danger.I think she'll do better than people think. Or just make a bunch of money.If the job situation isn't better in two years maybe Democrats deserve her.

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