303 Obama.

Obama 290

Obama gets Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin. (Romney: VA, FL, IA)

314 - Obama
224 - Romnesia

324 Obama

214 Romney

Slightly pessimistic, but estimating is one thing I tend to be conservative about. :)

Obama 299, Romney 239.

O gets Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, VA
R gets Florida, New Hampshire, NC

Bonus pick: we will know the winner by noon 11/7.

I'll pick O 315, just cause that's what Silver has now. R 223. This is cheap, I know, but I haven't given much thought before.

I'm with you fellers on the states.

If a big state is wrong, others might be too. But I'd guess Nate Silver is right there too, though Florida might go Romney. If it and VA go to R, I think O would still have 273.

Silver has the rest of them as in the bag, with CO as the next nearest iffy state.

(Noticed he just converged the day-of cast with the now-cast. 92.2%! Not too bad.)

Somebody should take 315 less Florida = 286.

For the sake of gambling, I'll predict the Bizarro Scenario or the future we may possibly deserve.

Enough people stay home because Nate Silver has it in the bag resulting in an electoral tie. The House of Reps picks the President and the Senate picks the VP. The ensuing chemistry is just weird enough to work for America and the Romney/Biden ticket goes on to a landslide victory in 2016, coincidentally the same year that Steve Spurrier coaches the University of Tennessee football team to its first no-win season.

He wins VA.

I'm optimistic:
Obama: 331
The other guy: 207
(Obama wins with the same map as 2008 minus Indiana and N.C.)

Romney 315

Obama 223

Romney 272, 273, 274, or 276. 273 would be best because it would be done without Ohio. If Romney wins Ohio, it could be a 300 plus win for Romney. Biggest variables are the MOF, Margin of Fraud, the weather, and how voters react to the early exit polls. A Romney win requires getting over the MOF. Ohio won't be settled for weeks.

MOF when his family owns Ohio's voting machines?

Obama -275

Romney - 263

PA, CO, MI, Ohio - Obama

Florida, VA, NV, NC - Romney

I see Greg Mackay and R. Neal both have 303, which is 4 more than my 299, which means New Hampshire. I feel I have been a tad pessimistic but I'll stick with my # just for the heck of it.

Obama 303 -- He gets VA, OH, MI, IA, CO, WI, NV, PA, NH,

Romney 220 -- He gets FL, NC--maybe

or 15. ;>)

Thanks for the MOF laugh. The GOP is sure trying and having some success suppressing votes, though. NPR reported voters without ID have been turned away in Penn., contrary to the judge's order. That's reverse-fraud fraud.

So what's the deal here? Did the guy beat me? Am I the only compulsive gambler on this site? :-)?

Nate Silver was not only proved right, his two highest probability distribution spurs nail the actual results with and without Fla.