One thing to keep in mind about 2014. At the top of the ticket you had a popular sitting senator, who despite having a marginally credible opponent still won by 30 points, and a populsr sitting governor who was essentially unopposed. It was a sort of meh election.

This time you have open seats for senate and governor and a red tide of maga voters whipped up into a frenzy along with a blue ripple of people freaking out.