Mar 2 2016
08:27 am
Alabama:       Trump  43%  Cruz   21%  Rubio  19%         
Arkansas:      Trump  33%  Cruz   31%  Rubio  25%         
Georgia:       Trump  39%  Rubio  25%  Cruz   24%          
Massachusetts: Trump  49%  Kasich 19%  Rubio  18%    
Minnesota:     Rubio  37%  Cruz   29%  Trump  21%        
Oklahoma:      Cruz   34%  Trump  29%  Rubio  26%         
Tennessee:     Trump  39%  Cruz   25%  Rubio  21%        
Texas:         Cruz   44%  Trump  27%  Rubio  18%            
Virginia:      Trump  35%  Rubio  32%  Cruz   17%         
Vermont:       Trump  33%  Kasich 30%  Rubio  19%

Super Tuesday delegates: Trump 211, Cruz 131, Rubio 89, Kasich 21, Carson 4

Total delegates: Trump 293, Cruz 148, Rubio 105, Kasich 27, Carson 9

Trump is rolling up some big wins and is leading the delegate count by a healthy margin. But, if you consolidate the 2nd and 3rd place "winners," he loses every state, so there still appears to be a lot of anti-Trump sentiment.

The problem is that the Republican Party is in self-destruct mode. Cruz and Rubio still think unicorns and fairy dust will somehow reverse their fortunes, so nobody is going to drop out any time soon. Even Kasich says he will stay in until at least Ohio. Carson is angling for book deals and may be under the delusion that Trump will pick him for VP.

Perhaps the RNC will start pressuring Rubio to drop out and go all in on Cruz for the desperation Hail Mary. On the other hand, Rubio seems to have finally hit his stride and is certainly more likable. Either way, it's probably too little too late, especially if Trump wins Florida and some other winner-take-all states on March 15th.

Then there's the question of who Rubio or Cruz voters would go to. Cruz voters would probably go to Trump, and some Rubio voters could conceivably go to Clinton. So it's a no-win for the RNC.

Craziest thing I've seen in a while.

R. Neal's picture

Note that Haslam's pick came

Note that Haslam's pick came in 3rd in Tennessee.

Average Guy's picture


His problem is Cruz. And it was the same as Gore's.

That is, when they speak, it generally comes off as condescension.

It may be the case Republicans would rather have a candidate that talks to them like a kindergarten teacher over Trump's romper room, but I wouldn't put money on it. And that assumes Trump's base is only Republicans, which still seems unknown.

R. Neal's picture

Report: Carson dropping out,

Report: Carson dropping out, says he "does not see a path forward." Will announce Friday.

MLDaugherty's picture

I sure hope he was able to

I sure hope he was able to see a lot clearer and earlier when he was performing surgery.

MLDaugherty's picture

Of course, he actually was

Of course, he actually was trained and had experience in the medical field and was very successful. He does not have a clue about being the leader of the United States. He should never have ran in the first place. Just because someone is intelligent, does not mean that they have the experience and are qualified to be President. A candidate should not be expected to be an be an expert on everything, but should be very knowledgeable on foreign policy and a wide range of issues.Donald Trump is not qualified to be President.Kasich is the only Republican qualified to be President. I disagree with him on every major issue, but he is qualified.I hope Kasich and all the remaining candidates stay in the race and give the nomination to Trump. Trump cannot win in November.

Knoxgal's picture

It has been said

It's been said that Carson's main goal was to sell books and perhaps land a spot with conservative media.

I think everyone assumed he was "brilliant" because he was a neurosurgeon, but I never saw it. I've wondered if there aren't some physiological factors operating that affect cognitive decline.

Reagan's Alzheimer's was obvious to me long before he left office. For the record, I'm not saying Carson has Alzheimer's, but something doesn't seem right.

Somebody's picture

I don't know if there is some

I don't know if there is some sort of cognitive decline or just typical surgeon's arrogance. They're notorious for delusions of godhood and universal brilliance. In truth, a person can be a great surgeon by being a highly skilled carcass mechanic. Some are also brilliant or talented as scientists or in other ways, but although that seems to be assumed, (anything that's not supposed to be that difficult is remarked to be 'not brain surgery') it's not actually required.

Carson had a great retirement gig selling books and telling like-minded audiences what they want to hear. He does not have Trump's showman skills or his quick ability to deflect, and so he was caught flat-footed not knowing things that an assumed brilliant mind should know. He gambled and has seriously hurt his brand. Maybe he can go back to books and talks, but likely only at a discounted rate.

Elwood Aspermonte's picture

Haslam's guy only got 21 percent statewide

Not sure who got zoomed on that deal, did Rubio think he was getting an avalanche of support (Haslam was a Bush man on the front end) or was Haslam expecting Rubio to bring the Republican Establishment Message?

Under any scenario, I look for Alexander to resign/retire from the Senate about this time in 2017 and Haslam will appoint himself to that senate seat, turn the Volunteer State over to Ron Ramsey and embark on all thing Washingtonian.

Leland Wykoff 's picture

Super Tuesday Analysis: Likely Scenarios for Clinton, Sanders, T

Interesting analysis. Worth the read:


Knoxgal's picture

Good article

Good article

R. Neal's picture

The GOP has two theories on

The GOP has two theories on how to stop Trump. Both are likely to fail. - The Washington Post

You'll notice that we're having it both ways here. We argue that a consolidated field likely wouldn't help Rubio win, given the evidence at hand, and we argue that a splintered field also helps Trump moving forward. That's precisely the point. There are really three options at play here, not two. There's consolidation (a long shot) and fragmentation (a longer shot) —  and there's Trump wins the nomination. That appears to be the one option that the establishment refuses to embrace.

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