Thu
Nov 15 2007
11:55 pm

I would like to see your predictions on voter turnout for the February election.
In '04 it was about 33,000. 23k Democrats, 10k GOP. Remember the Democratic race was all but over and W was unopposed for the Repubs. Locally we had a few hotly contested school board and commission races.
(link...)

The last Presidential was over 180,000 (Nov. 2004)
The Nov. 2006 Gubernatorial and Senate pulled over 110,000.

So what should I expect?

70,000 (30 demos, 40 GOP) ?
I’ve had people say as high as 150,000.

What do you think?

knoxrebel's picture

Greg, I think we're looking

Greg, I think we're looking at about 45-50,000 for 2/05. On the other hand, I think the August County General may be the heaviest in a while (if not ever), and while November may not break any records percentage- wise, numbers-wise, it may very well be the highest ever.

R. Neal's picture

I think there will be higher

I think there will be higher turnout in Feb. because of all the controversy. If nothing else just the friends and relatives of all the gaggle of candidates could make for a record.

But as reader Gary noted on another thread, the presidential primaries could be decided by then, and it might put more focus on the local primiaries and give people more opportunity to cross over which might give them more incentive.

On the other hand, people don't seem all that interested in county primaries. Maybe they figure they will leave it up to the insiders and operatives and people who are paying attention and then vote the party line in the general?

At any rate, you can probably expect the KNS to play the Feb. and Aug. elections up more than usual so they can continue crowing about their lawsuit and the win. And the surge in voter registrations is interesting. Will all those people still care in Feb.?

bill young's picture

primary

Democrats-30,000

Republicans-65,000

If this were the over/under

How would you lay your money down??

Russ's picture

I don't know how to break it

I don't know how to break it down by party, but I suspect the turnout for the February primary in Knox County will hit a record, and possibly by a wide margin. This will be due to local issues, not the fact that it's also a presidential primary.

If Knox County Commission had appointed replacements for the ousted officeholders promptly after the sunshine trial ended, voters' attention to (and anger over) the issue might have waned somewhat by February. However, the commissioners are dragging their collective feet over naming replacements, which I think will cause the issue to stay fresh in Knox County voters' minds.

I've never in my life seen so many people in Knox County this angry over local politics, and I've never seen this many people actually paying attention to the subject. People who've never followed local politics before are suddenly aware, paying attention, and (rightly) ticked off about County Commission.

Because the appointments issue will still be relatively fresh, I also think the turnout in February will be a lot higher than the turnout for the general county-wide election in August.

~Russ

bill young's picture

Democrats

Record '72 primary..32,922...New Record in '08?

'72 Vote

Wallace-17,340
Humphrey-6,840
McGovern-6,276
Chisholm-728
Muskie-639
Jackson-510
McCarthy-245
Lindsay-153
Mills-109
Hartke-48
Yorty-32
Write-in-2

'88 is second..Al ran..about 28K

'76(Carter),'84(Mondale),'92(Clinton)& '04(Kerry)a little over/under 20K .

R. Neal's picture

OK, I am not in the same pay

OK, I am not in the same pay grade as Greg or Bill or KnoxReb on this, but here are my guesses:

If Thompson is still in the running:

109,000 (R: 66,000, D: 43,000)

If Thompson has already been eliminated:

95,000 (R: 53,000, D: 42,000)

(Should we start a pool?)

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