Early voting is significantly off. Few are voting in this election. Four years ago over 50,000 voters cast ballots in the county primary. Less than 11,500 voted early this year. Early turnout made up half or more of total turnout in the past three ballots. Total turnout will likely be under 30,000.

There is only one demographic bucking the trend. Democrats are nearly meeting expectations where most other groups are well short. This bodes well for write-ins.

Turnout is strongest for the Collins-Dozier-Stooksbury seventh school board seat, and the county commission fourth with Moody-Smith-McMillan and ninth with Pinkston-Kiger are the two strongest commission districts relative to size.

By commission district:

• First  572 votes
• Second 663 votes
• Third 790 votes
• Fourth 1361 votes
• Fifth 2202 votes
• Sixth 1222 votes
• Seventh 2271 votes
• Eighth 1148 votes
• Ninth 1237 votes

It's a great chance for a longshot like Steve Hall to sneak past a dozing front runner, but there are no such hints in the early voting. I'm guessing incumbents win all contests and all the desperate Dems who need only 5% will succeed. Sometime between now and August we will get at least one more curveball from the courts.