I wouldn't trust a campaign poll taken before Labor Day.
In my opinion the only two polls that are relevant before Labor Day are the President's approval rating and the "Is America on the right or wrong track" poll. Political historians know those are the ones to watch. Political talking-heads know...well, nothing.
I just think a lot of factors will come into play after the nominees are officially chosen that will heavily influence the results in November, and that these factors aren't being considered by the people doing the polling or by the people being polled.
I also think a lot of the poll takers and interpreters of the polling data are relying on "conventional wisdom" in analyzing their findings.
That's fine, but with the economy posting numbers not seen in a long, long time, and with Bernanke predicting no upswing in the near future, and with two war theatres that are seeing, again, an upsurge in the violence, this race is far from being over.
Submitted by bill young on Sun, 2008/08/24 - 4:36pm.
This is just my hunch going into the conventions.I'll do it again the first week in Oct.& again the weekend before election day.I also will add the Republican veep stakes states to one colume or the other when McCain chooses.
In '00 before the conventions I had Tn.Gore by Oct I'd switched Tn. to Bush.In '04 before the conventions I had Fla as a battleground by Oct I'd switched Fla to Bush.
One factor is there are more red states than blue.So McCain has more to defend.In my opinion he faces a challenge keeping NC,Ga,Fla,Nev red but these states are not tight enough to not put them in McCain's colume.The blue states are really dark blue & right now I dont see Obama losing any of them.
Submitted by RayCapps on Mon, 2008/08/25 - 10:24am.
I'll go on record on say Obama wins 304 to 234. New Mexico, Ohio, and Florida will flip to Blue States for this election cycle. Colorado and West Virginia will be close, but I'll play it safe and say they stay red. I'd also watch Kansas. If that state - usually so safely red - shows signs of flipping, a route could be on, not on the scale of Reagan/Mondale, but significant nonetheless.
Submitted by RayCapps on Mon, 2008/08/25 - 3:12pm.
If McCain can't hold Kansas for the GOP, he's likely in a world of hurt in every swing state out there. It should be a bellweather to see if it's another very close election or one more like Clinton vs. Dole in 1996. I don't have any expectation of solidly red states flipping to Obama like blue states did for Reagan. But a "mini" landslide where every "leaning" state breaks for Obama could be signalled by the loss of Kansas.
Slate's tally looks better.
i made a mistake tallying the obama states it's 193
I wouldn't trust a campaign poll taken before Labor Day.
In my opinion the only two polls that are relevant before Labor Day are the President's approval rating and the "Is America on the right or wrong track" poll. Political historians know those are the ones to watch. Political talking-heads know...well, nothing.
The only poll's I'll pay attention to are the ones that come out 1-2 days prior to election day.
there are 3 states i would give obama but we dont know mccain's running mate so i didnt put mass/romney..minn/pawlenty & pa/ridge in obama's colume.
mccain:ala,alaska,ari,fla,ga,id,ky,la,miss,mo,mont,neb
,nc,nev,okla.sc,tn,tex,ut,west va,wyoming,
ark,ind,kan=225 electoral votes
obama:cal,conn,dc,del,haw,ill,maine,mary,
nj,ny,ore,ri,ver,wash,wis=193 electoral votes
I just think a lot of factors will come into play after the nominees are officially chosen that will heavily influence the results in November, and that these factors aren't being considered by the people doing the polling or by the people being polled.
I also think a lot of the poll takers and interpreters of the polling data are relying on "conventional wisdom" in analyzing their findings.
That's fine, but with the economy posting numbers not seen in a long, long time, and with Bernanke predicting no upswing in the near future, and with two war theatres that are seeing, again, an upsurge in the violence, this race is far from being over.
For those who don't want to click, Slate has it Obama: 190 safe + 70 leaning vs. McSame: 78 safe + 113 leaning. 84 are tossup.
This is just my hunch going into the conventions.I'll do it again the first week in Oct.& again the weekend before election day.I also will add the Republican veep stakes states to one colume or the other when McCain chooses.
In '00 before the conventions I had Tn.Gore by Oct I'd switched Tn. to Bush.In '04 before the conventions I had Fla as a battleground by Oct I'd switched Fla to Bush.
One factor is there are more red states than blue.So McCain has more to defend.In my opinion he faces a challenge keeping NC,Ga,Fla,Nev red but these states are not tight enough to not put them in McCain's colume.The blue states are really dark blue & right now I dont see Obama losing any of them.
I'll go on record on say Obama wins 304 to 234. New Mexico, Ohio, and Florida will flip to Blue States for this election cycle. Colorado and West Virginia will be close, but I'll play it safe and say they stay red. I'd also watch Kansas. If that state - usually so safely red - shows signs of flipping, a route could be on, not on the scale of Reagan/Mondale, but significant nonetheless.
I think Colorado will flip but Florida stays red.
Kansas might go blue because of Obama's Kansas ties. I wouldn't track it's polls as an indication of other red states.
Does Slate consider TN in McCains' safe or leaning category?
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If McCain can't hold Kansas for the GOP, he's likely in a world of hurt in every swing state out there. It should be a bellweather to see if it's another very close election or one more like Clinton vs. Dole in 1996. I don't have any expectation of solidly red states flipping to Obama like blue states did for Reagan. But a "mini" landslide where every "leaning" state breaks for Obama could be signalled by the loss of Kansas.
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